Polydata

@Stagna

#2,256,07126

0x087457a3088a6740cf36b195b463cf5a089dd6a3

540d· 31 markets · 91 tradesVol: $5,3222026-06-18T02:56
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

26
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 58%14/20
Profit Factor 0.83x0/15
HHI 6459/10
Profit Days 42%3/10
DD/Peak 932%0/10

Summary

Stagna is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, with 91 trades spread across 31 markets over 667 days. Despite consistent engagement, Stagna holds a negative net PnL of $-56.19 and ranks #2,256,071 on the global leaderboard, reflecting below-average performance. Their overall Smart Score of 26/100 further indicates limited effectiveness compared to the broader trading community.

Stagna’s trading style shows a preference for manual, human-driven decisions, as suggested by a low bot score of 10/100. The trader maintains a relatively conservative sell rate of 20% and demonstrates a moderate risk profile, evidenced by a 60% win rate and a profit factor of 1.60. However, the negative Sharpe ratio of -0.19 and a consistent downward equity trend suggest that timing and position sizing may not be optimized. Stagna does not engage in weather markets and appears to diversify across various market types without a strong thematic focus.

The main strength of Stagna lies in a decent win rate and moderate profit factor, indicating some ability to identify profitable opportunities. However, the persistent net losses, downward equity trajectory, and below-average Smart Score highlight significant risks and potential issues in strategy execution or market selection. Continued monitoring of Stagna’s performance on Polymarket is warranted to assess any improvements or strategic shifts.

Categories

5
🏛️ POLITICS#1,453,795$-68Vol: $3,746
🎭 CULTURE#58,358$13Vol: $1,141
📈 ECONOMICS#31,058$15Vol: $220
SPORTS#1,403,080$-27Vol: $110
📢 MENTIONS#18,554$11Vol: $104

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-56
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$5,322
Total Redeem
$1,095
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
31
total markets
Trades
73B / 18S
Daily Volume
$3
Account Age
540d
since Dec 24, 2024

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
55%
16W / 13L events
Realized PnL
$100
Win Rate
60%
18W / 12L
Profit Factor
1.6x
Avg Win
$15
Avg Loss
$-14

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $151 (150.8% of PnL)

Top Winners

Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?$62
New Pope in 2025?$57
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?$32
Will JD Vance attend Pope Francis' funeral?$24
Will India invade Pakistan before July?$19
Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2025?$14
Will Trump say 'Zelenskyy' during the 2025 State of the Union?$11
US-China trade deal in 2025?$8
Pakistan military strike on India by Friday?$7
US-China trade deal before June?$7

Top Losers

Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?$-53
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy attend Pope Francis' funeral?$-41
Champions League: Arsenal vs. PSG (To Advance)$-23
Will Pope Francis step down before July? $-15
1,200+ Measles cases in U.S. before June?$-11
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before June?$-10
Champions League Final: PSG vs. Inter Milan$-4
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31?$-4
Will Nicușor Dan win by 0–6%?$-3
Will Kafka Hibino win Crunchyroll's Best Main Character Award for$-1

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.189
Sortino
-0.191
HHI
645
Moderate
EV per $1
$-0.359
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
11.1%
Top-5 markets
45.7%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
0.5
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.2
Active Hours
21/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
17:00 UTC
Median Gap
54.6m
between trades
Avg Gap
3.0h
between trades
Night Trading
23%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.37
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.3

Bot Detection

#6
10
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 3276s — typical for humanSize CV 1.37 — diverse, typical for human23% at night — different timezone?21/24 hours — extended daySession CV 1.04 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 17:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
2.4
Moderate DCA
<=1
13 entries
<=2
21 entries
<=5
29 entries
<=10
31 entries
<=20
31 entries
<=50
31 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)21.9%
Mid (20-55c)20.5%
High (>55c)57.5%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 83.1%

Other$105
Milan$-4

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.1
Events covered
29

Single bracket

<=1
27 brackets
<=2
29 brackets
<=3
29 brackets
<=4
29 brackets
<=5
29 brackets
<=8
29 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
2/22/2025, 9:13:48 PM1 trades$210 min
2/23/2025, 1:38:50 AM1 trades$350 min
2/27/2025, 3:55:42 AM1 trades$50 min
2/28/2025, 7:19:33 PM1 trades$100 min
3/5/2025, 1:58:31 AM1 trades$190 min
3/5/2025, 2:45:04 AM1 trades$400 min
3/5/2025, 2:54:14 AM1 trades$10 min
3/5/2025, 3:52:30 AM3 trades$935 min
3/5/2025, 1:27:00 PM1 trades$70 min
3/6/2025, 10:23:57 PM1 trades$60 min
4/21/2025, 6:13:08 PM1 trades$1880 min
4/25/2025, 5:50:50 PM2 trades$1882 min
4/25/2025, 6:57:55 PM1 trades$30 min
4/25/2025, 7:09:25 PM1 trades$260 min
4/25/2025, 9:29:41 PM2 trades$341 min
4/26/2025, 7:42:41 AM1 trades$00 min
4/30/2025, 10:01:20 PM1 trades$30 min
5/1/2025, 12:27:15 AM1 trades$570 min
5/5/2025, 5:19:16 PM1 trades$140 min
5/5/2025, 10:02:29 PM1 trades$90 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-04
05-08
05-18
05-31
07-31
12-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
19.8% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 2.4/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.1 br/event