Polydata

@Subtle-Problem

#99,28381

0x7941205f29a5fd5cd06211bb7e14748a178a6ca3

28d· 568 markets · 572 tradesVol: $6,9662026-06-04T02:12
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

81
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 59%14/20
Profit Factor 1.83x13/15
Sharpe 0.3046/15
Sortino 3.70610/10
EV $+0.83110/10
HHI 2010/10
Profit Days 61%8/10
DD/Peak 3%10/10

Summary

Subtle-Problem is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, with 572 trades across 550 markets over 25 days. They hold a global PnL rank of #99,283 and have achieved a net profit of $572.43 on a total volume of $6,966. Despite a relatively low portfolio value of zero, Subtle-Problem maintains a very good Smart Score of 81 and a high Bot Score of 95, indicating significant use of automated trading strategies.

This trader predominantly employs an automated, low-risk approach characterized by an exceptionally high win rate of 97.4% and a profit factor exceeding 106. Their style involves frequent, short-term trades with minimal exposure to market downturns, reflected in a max drawdown duration of zero days and a nearly negligible sell percentage of 1%. Subtle-Problem does not trade weather markets and demonstrates a consistent equity trend with a Sharpe ratio of 0.30, suggesting steady but modest risk-adjusted returns.

Subtle-Problem’s strengths lie in their automation, consistency, and remarkable win streak, which confer a reliable edge on Polymarket. However, the low Sharpe ratio and flat equity trend highlight modest volatility and limited upside beyond steady gains. Additionally, the lack of portfolio diversification and reliance on bots may expose them to systematic risks or technical failures. Overall, Subtle-Problem exemplifies a disciplined, low-risk trading style suitable for consistent profit accumulation.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

6
Profitable
PnL $+572
Diamond Hands
1% sell
Bot
Score 95/100
Win Streak
114 wins in a row
Consistent
14/23 days
Cool Head
DD 3%

Categories

1
CRYPTO#37,701$572Vol: $6,966

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$572
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$6,966
Total Redeem
$3,309
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
568
total markets
Trades
565B / 7S
Daily Volume
$108
Account Age
28d
since May 7, 2026

Periods

#2
Week
$0
Vol: $38
Month
$0
Vol: $1
All Time
$572
Vol: $6,966

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
59%
252W / 177L events
Realized PnL
$1,597
Win Rate
97%
339W / 9L
Profit Factor
106.55x
Avg Win
$5
Avg Loss
$-2

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $618 (38.8% of PnL)

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET$495
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$83
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET$40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET$20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET$15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET$14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET$14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET$12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET$11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET$11

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$-5
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET$-3
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$-2
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET$-2
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$-1
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$-1
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET$-1
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$-1
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET$-0

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.304
Sortino
3.706
HHI
20
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.831
Kelly %
96.9%
Half-Kelly
48.5%
Top-1 market
1.1%
Top-5 markets
2.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
27.9
Active
Markets / Day
26.9
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
4:00 UTC
Median Gap
8.5m
between trades
Avg Gap
45.6m
between trades
Night Trading
38%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
0.24
Moderate
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.4

Bot Detection

#6
95
BOT (automated trading)HIGH probability

8 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
HIGH
Market Coverage
HIGH
Median gap 508s — typical for humanSize CV 0.24 — templated orders38% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.61 — semi-mechanical28 trades/day — suspiciously high27 markets/day — mass coverage429 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 4:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1
Single entry
<=1
537 entries
<=2
549 entries
<=5
550 entries
<=10
550 entries
<=20
550 entries
<=50
550 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)2.7%
Mid (20-55c)42.5%
High (>55c)54.9%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 65.2%

Other$1,593

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
550

Single bracket

<=1
550 brackets
<=2
550 brackets
<=3
550 brackets
<=4
550 brackets
<=5
550 brackets
<=8
550 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
5/11/2026, 5:54:49 PM1 trades$30 min
5/11/2026, 6:36:32 PM1 trades$30 min
5/11/2026, 9:26:38 PM1 trades$30 min
5/11/2026, 11:03:45 PM1 trades$30 min
5/11/2026, 11:09:12 PM1 trades$30 min
5/11/2026, 11:26:06 PM2 trades$65 min
5/11/2026, 11:44:37 PM2 trades$61 min
5/11/2026, 11:58:28 PM2 trades$63 min
5/12/2026, 12:24:03 AM1 trades$30 min
5/12/2026, 12:44:30 AM1 trades$30 min
5/12/2026, 1:09:05 AM1 trades$30 min
5/12/2026, 1:28:11 AM1 trades$30 min
5/12/2026, 1:33:38 AM1 trades$30 min
5/12/2026, 1:44:24 AM1 trades$30 min
5/12/2026, 1:54:00 AM1 trades$30 min
5/12/2026, 2:17:51 AM1 trades$30 min
5/12/2026, 2:24:27 AM1 trades$30 min
5/12/2026, 3:19:33 AM1 trades$30 min
5/12/2026, 3:27:55 AM1 trades$30 min
5/12/2026, 4:17:51 AM1 trades$30 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
05-07
05-13
05-16
05-19
05-22
05-25
05-28
05-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
1.2% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event