Polydata

@Subtle-Problem

#129,66137

0x7941205f29a5fd5cd06211bb7e14748a178a6ca3

72d· 837 markets · 842 tradesVol: $11,1802026-07-16T02:45
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

37
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 44%7/20
Profit Factor 1.14x4/15
Sharpe 0.0641/15
Sortino 0.1051/10
EV $+0.1427/10
HHI 4510/10
Profit Days 46%4/10
DD/Peak 60%2/10

Summary

Subtle-Problem is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, having executed 842 trades across 819 markets over 65 days. With a net profit and loss (PnL) of $376.17 and a global PnL leaderboard rank of #129661, Subtle-Problem shows consistent profitability despite a below-average Smart Score of 37/100. Their total trading volume stands at $11,180, and the equity trend has remained relatively flat, indicating stable portfolio value with no significant upward or downward swings.

Subtle-Problem’s trading style is characterized by a very high win rate of 98.1%, suggesting a conservative and low-risk approach. The trader rarely sells, indicated by a 1% sell rate, and has no exposure to weather markets. Their semi-automated strategy, reflected in a bot score of 65/100, blends manual and algorithmic components. The low Sharpe Ratio of 0.06 points to minimal volatility in returns, while a profit factor exceeding 155 demonstrates strong efficiency in generating gains relative to losses.

The strengths of Subtle-Problem lie in their consistent winning streak and disciplined risk management, as shown by a max drawdown duration of zero days. However, the low Smart Score and flat equity trend suggest limited growth potential and possibly conservative profit targets. The heavy reliance on stable, low-risk trades could mean missed opportunities in more volatile markets. Overall, Subtle-Problem exemplifies a steady but cautious trading profile on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

3
Profitable
PnL $+376
Diamond Hands
1% sell
Win Streak
246 wins in a row

Categories

2
CRYPTO#38,132$626Vol: $10,879
SPORTS#1,731,736$-250Vol: $301

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$376
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$11,180
Total Redeem
$4,700
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
837
total markets
Trades
835B / 7S
Daily Volume
$66
Account Age
72d
since May 7, 2026

Periods

#2
Week
$3
Vol: $235
Month
$-36
Vol: $2,603
All Time
$376
Vol: $11,180

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
44%
250W / 314L events
Realized PnL
$2,059
Win Rate
98%
473W / 9L
Profit Factor
155.21x
Avg Win
$5
Avg Loss
$-2

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $618 (26.6% of PnL)

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET$495
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$83
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET$40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET$20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET$15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET$14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET$14
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET$13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET$12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET$11

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$-5
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET$-3
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$-2
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET$-2
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$-1
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$-1
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET$-1
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$-1
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET$-0

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.064
Sortino
0.105
HHI
46
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.142
Kelly %
97.8%
Half-Kelly
48.9%
Top-1 market
5.8%
Top-5 markets
7.4%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
12.9
Active
Markets / Day
12.6
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
4:00 UTC
Median Gap
11.0m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.3h
between trades
Night Trading
43%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.66
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.4

Bot Detection

#6
65
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

8 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
MEDIUM
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
MEDIUM
Median gap 658s — typical for humanSize CV 1.66 — diverse, typical for human43% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.61 — semi-mechanical13 trades/day — very active13 markets/day — mass coverage564 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 4:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1
Single entry
<=1
805 entries
<=2
818 entries
<=5
819 entries
<=10
819 entries
<=20
819 entries
<=50
819 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)2.2%
Mid (20-55c)56.4%
High (>55c)41.4%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 78%

Other$2,328

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
749

Single bracket

<=1
749 brackets
<=2
749 brackets
<=3
749 brackets
<=4
749 brackets
<=5
749 brackets
<=8
749 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
5/11/2026, 5:54:49 PM1 trades$30 min
5/11/2026, 6:36:32 PM1 trades$30 min
5/11/2026, 9:26:38 PM1 trades$30 min
5/11/2026, 11:03:45 PM1 trades$30 min
5/11/2026, 11:09:12 PM1 trades$30 min
5/11/2026, 11:26:06 PM2 trades$65 min
5/11/2026, 11:44:37 PM2 trades$61 min
5/11/2026, 11:58:28 PM2 trades$63 min
5/12/2026, 12:24:03 AM1 trades$30 min
5/12/2026, 12:44:30 AM1 trades$30 min
5/12/2026, 1:09:05 AM1 trades$30 min
5/12/2026, 1:28:11 AM1 trades$30 min
5/12/2026, 1:33:38 AM1 trades$30 min
5/12/2026, 1:44:24 AM1 trades$30 min
5/12/2026, 1:54:00 AM1 trades$30 min
5/12/2026, 2:17:51 AM1 trades$30 min
5/12/2026, 2:24:27 AM1 trades$30 min
5/12/2026, 3:19:33 AM1 trades$30 min
5/12/2026, 3:27:55 AM1 trades$30 min
5/12/2026, 4:17:51 AM1 trades$30 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
05-11
05-19
05-27
06-18
06-26
07-04
07-12

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0.8% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event