Polydata
Suspicious-Tree

@Suspicious-Tree

#19,45452

0x8281b7b025cb2d0abcb249c17091dd9e4e7c1f0f

83d· 1387 markets · 2040 tradesVol: $221,7692026-07-17T06:02
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

52
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 35%3/20
Profit Factor 100.55x15/15
Sharpe 0.1523/15
Sortino 0.3463/10
EV $+0.76310/10
HHI 1410/10
Profit Days 42%3/10
DD/Peak 46%5/10

Summary

Suspicious-Tree is an active trader on Polymarket, ranked #19,454 on the global PnL leaderboard with a net profit of $6,839.96. Over 54 days, they have completed 2,040 trades across 1,312 markets, generating a total volume of $221,769. Their portfolio value currently stands at $3.50, and their average smart score is 52/100, indicating moderate overall performance. Suspicious-Tree maintains an impressive win rate of 99.5% and a profit factor of 100.55, reflecting highly successful trades.

This trader prefers a high-frequency trading style with a strong focus on winning trades, as evidenced by their near-perfect win rate and rapid trading pace. Suspicious-Tree shows no activity in weather markets and does not engage in selling, suggesting a long or hold strategy. Their low Sharpe ratio of 0.15 indicates limited risk-adjusted returns, while the zero max drawdown duration points to effective risk containment. The semi-bot score of 55/100 suggests a mix of automated and manual trading decisions.

Suspicious-Tree’s key strengths include consistent profitability, a sustained upward equity trend, and resilience demonstrated by zero drawdowns. Their badges for profitability and win streak further highlight their steady performance. However, the low portfolio value and modest Sharpe ratio may signal limited capital growth potential and risk-adjusted efficiency. Additionally, reliance on semi-automated strategies could pose risks if market conditions shift rapidly. Overall, Suspicious-Tree exemplifies disciplined trading on Polymarket with room for scaling.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

4
Profitable
PnL $+6,840
Diamond Hands
0% sell
Win Streak
546 wins in a row
Whale
$53,783

Categories

3
CRYPTO#6,952$6,915Vol: $220,593
SPORTS#1,625,227$-74Vol: $1,133
🏛️ POLITICS#859,625$-1Vol: $43

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$6,840
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$221,769
Total Redeem
$62,100
Portfolio
$4
Predictions
1387
total markets
Trades
2040B / 0S
Daily Volume
$996
Account Age
83d
since Apr 24, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$-1
Vol: $0
Week
$3,321
Vol: $27,391
Month
$5,308
Vol: $65,955
All Time
$6,840
Vol: $221,769

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
35%
251W / 461L events
Realized PnL
$26,741
Win Rate
100%
845W / 4L
Profit Factor
100.55x
Avg Win
$32
Avg Loss
$-67

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $6,782 (25.2% of PnL)

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET$3,201
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET$2,601
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$980
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET$593
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET$536
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET$419
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET$380
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET$341
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET$326
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET$317

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET$-130
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET$-64
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET$-54
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET$-23

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.152
Sortino
0.345
HHI
14
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.763
Kelly %
99.3%
Half-Kelly
49.6%
Top-1 market
0.4%
Top-5 markets
1.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
40.3
Active
Markets / Day
25.9
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
15:00 UTC
Median Gap
10.4m
between trades
Avg Gap
34.2m
between trades
Night Trading
20%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.19
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.7

Bot Detection

#6
55
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

8 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
MEDIUM
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
HIGH
Median gap 623s — typical for humanSize CV 1.19 — diverse, typical for human20% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.38 — human randomness40 trades/day — suspiciously high26 markets/day — mass coverage713 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 15:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.6
Single entry
<=1
1140 entries
<=2
1180 entries
<=5
1252 entries
<=10
1297 entries
<=20
1311 entries
<=50
1312 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)7.3%
Mid (20-55c)38.1%
High (>55c)54.6%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 54.2%

Other$26,875

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
1312

Single bracket

<=1
1312 brackets
<=2
1312 brackets
<=3
1312 brackets
<=4
1312 brackets
<=5
1312 brackets
<=8
1312 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
5/27/2026, 3:35:20 PM3 trades$130 min
5/27/2026, 4:20:24 PM2 trades$90 min
5/27/2026, 6:45:16 PM13 trades$616 min
5/27/2026, 7:45:16 PM3 trades$130 min
5/27/2026, 8:40:16 PM7 trades$330 min
5/27/2026, 9:25:16 PM5 trades$230 min
5/27/2026, 9:55:17 PM4 trades$160 min
5/27/2026, 10:05:19 PM1 trades$40 min
5/28/2026, 1:25:28 AM1 trades$50 min
5/28/2026, 1:50:33 AM3 trades$100 min
5/28/2026, 3:10:36 AM1 trades$50 min
5/28/2026, 5:55:19 AM10 trades$455 min
5/28/2026, 6:15:17 AM4 trades$190 min
5/28/2026, 6:30:33 AM3 trades$140 min
5/28/2026, 6:50:38 AM1 trades$50 min
5/28/2026, 8:25:35 AM1 trades$50 min
5/28/2026, 8:35:24 AM2 trades$100 min
5/28/2026, 9:25:33 AM3 trades$140 min
5/28/2026, 12:00:34 PM1 trades$50 min
5/28/2026, 12:40:21 PM1 trades$50 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
05-27
06-03
06-19
06-26
07-03
07-11
07-17
07-20

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.6/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event