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@Tart-Kettledrum

#1,480,23815

0x02e1295bba1bca4a63f26a37db071f240436fa25

53d· 15 markets · 27 tradesVol: $369 @onchainsidd2026-06-28T18:29
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

15
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 40%5/20
Profit Factor 0.71x0/15
HHI 10697/10
Profit Days 40%3/10

Summary

Tart-Kettledrum is a relatively new and low-ranked trader on Polymarket, positioned at #1,480,238 on the global PnL leaderboard. Over 15 active days, they have executed 27 trades across 15 different markets, with a total volume of $369. Despite this activity, Tart-Kettledrum has a net loss of $3.58 and a negative Sharpe ratio of -0.25, reflecting a beginner skill level and limited profitability so far.

This trader appears to favor a contrarian style, as indicated by their badges, and tends to engage in diverse markets without a clear specialization, avoiding weather markets entirely. Tart-Kettledrum’s win rate stands at 40%, with a profit factor below 1 (0.71), suggesting a riskier approach with more losing trades than winning ones. Their sell percentage is 44%, and their trading pattern shows an upward equity trend, indicating some improvement or increased capital deployment over time, but timing and risk management remain areas for development.

The key strength for Tart-Kettledrum is their willingness to explore multiple markets and maintain an upward equity trend despite losses, showing potential for growth. However, the low Smart Score and negative profit metrics highlight significant risks, including inconsistent profitability and a beginner-level understanding of market dynamics. Continued experience and refinement of strategy would be necessary for better performance on Polymarket.

Badges

2
Lottery Player
33% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
87% entries <$0.50

Categories

2
🎭 CULTURE#597,073$-3Vol: $251
CRYPTO#977,427$-4Vol: $112

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-4
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$369
Total Redeem
$10
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
15
total markets
Trades
15B / 12S
Daily Volume
$4
Account Age
53d
since May 17, 2026

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
36%
4W / 7L events
Realized PnL
$-4
Win Rate
40%
6W / 9L
Profit Factor
0.71x
Avg Win
$1
Avg Loss
$-1

Top Winners

Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B$3
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET$2
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?$2
XRP Up or Down - May 17, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET$1
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET$1
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?$1

Top Losers

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?$-3
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET$-3
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET$-3
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?$-1
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET$-1
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET$-1
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?$-1
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May?$-0
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?$-0

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.249
Sortino
-0.235
HHI
1069
Moderate
EV per $1
$-0.068
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
24.5%
Top-5 markets
54.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
5.5
Moderate
Markets / Day
3.1
Active Hours
8/24
Normal
Peak Hour
5:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.9m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.2h
between trades
Night Trading
44%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
0.80
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
12
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.3

Bot Detection

#6
25
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
MEDIUM
Active Hours
LOW
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 171s — typical for humanSize CV 0.80 — diverse, typical for human44% at night — bot never sleeps8/24 hours — normal hoursSession CV 0.69 — semi-mechanical

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 5:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1
Single entry
<=1
15 entries
<=2
15 entries
<=5
15 entries
<=10
15 entries
<=20
15 entries
<=50
15 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)33.3%
Mid (20-55c)60%
High (>55c)6.7%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 84%

Other$-4

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.4
Events covered
11

Single bracket

<=1
9 brackets
<=2
10 brackets
<=3
10 brackets
<=4
11 brackets
<=5
11 brackets
<=8
11 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
5/17/2026, 6:38:34 AM3 trades$64 min
5/17/2026, 7:27:40 AM1 trades$30 min
5/17/2026, 8:44:43 AM6 trades$1212 min
5/17/2026, 9:02:57 AM1 trades$30 min
5/17/2026, 9:30:11 AM1 trades$40 min
5/18/2026, 4:55:54 AM1 trades$130 min
5/18/2026, 5:11:39 AM5 trades$246 min
5/18/2026, 5:23:20 AM2 trades$60 min
5/18/2026, 11:21:15 AM3 trades$71 min
5/20/2026, 3:09:05 AM2 trades$90 min
5/20/2026, 4:17:33 AM1 trades$20 min
5/22/2026, 4:30:25 AM1 trades$30 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
05-17
05-18
05-20
05-22
06-01

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
44.4% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.4 br/event