Polydata

@Tedious-Postage

#103,84582

0x083865811a1b063f7ae722ddef6cffe4419764f6

80d· 510 markets · 569 tradesVol: $22,2592026-05-24T12:13
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

82
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 42%6/20
Profit Factor 1.98x15/15
Sharpe 0.60811/15
Sortino 1.57810/10
EV $+0.98910/10
HHI 17410/10
Profit Days 75%10/10
DD/Peak 6%10/10

Summary

Tedious-Postage is an active trader on Polymarket, with 569 trades across 307 markets over 81 days. Ranked #103,845 globally by PnL, they have generated a net profit of $499.08 on a total volume of $22,259, reflecting a solid profit factor of 6.58. Their portfolio value stands at $159.57, and they maintain a very good Smart Score of 82 out of 100, indicating consistent performance.

The trader focuses exclusively on weather markets, showing a specialized interest in this niche. Tedious-Postage exhibits a relatively conservative risk profile, evidenced by a 26% sell rate and a Sharpe ratio of 0.61, suggesting moderate volatility in returns. Their win rate of 77.9% and lack of any max drawdown duration highlight disciplined timing and effective trade management. The bot score of 25 implies they are likely a human trader using a fast interface, emphasizing skillful decision-making rather than automated strategies.

Tedious-Postage’s strengths lie in their high consistency, profitable contrarian approach, and steady upward equity trend, which support their reputation as a Weather Pro on Polymarket. However, their moderate Sharpe ratio and relatively small portfolio value indicate potential constraints in scaling or risk tolerance. Continued focus on weather markets may limit diversification, posing risks if market conditions shift unfavorably.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

6
Profitable
PnL $+499
Contrarian
88% entries <$0.50
Weather Pro
100% weather
Win Streak
23 wins in a row
Consistent
61/81 days
Cool Head
DD 6%

Categories

1
🌤️ WEATHER#2,117$499Vol: $22,259

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$499
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$22,259
Total Redeem
$1,704
Portfolio
$160
Predictions
510
total markets
Trades
420B / 149S
Daily Volume
$51
Account Age
80d
since Mar 5, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$11
Vol: $90
Week
$1
Vol: $90
Month
$40
Vol: $11,718
All Time
$499
Vol: $22,259

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
59%
145W / 102L events
Realized PnL
$1,832
Win Rate
78%
81W / 23L
Profit Factor
6.58x
Avg Win
$11
Avg Loss
$-6

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $117 (15.4% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on May 17?$52
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 22?$34
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on March 12?$32
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on April 17?$31
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 2?$28
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on May 16?$25
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on May 18?$23
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 21?$23
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 10?$22
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on March 14?$20

Top Losers

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on May 15?$-80
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 10?$-12
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 22?$-4
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on May 14?$-4
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on May 21?$-3
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on March 10?$-3
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on March 16?$-3
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on May 20?$-3
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on May 15?$-3
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on May 22?$-3

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.609
Sortino
1.578
HHI
174
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.989
Kelly %
52.0%
Half-Kelly
26.0%
Top-1 market
4.8%
Top-5 markets
19.6%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
7.1
Moderate
Markets / Day
3.8
Active Hours
23/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
21:00 UTC
Median Gap
4.2m
between trades
Avg Gap
2.3h
between trades
Night Trading
2%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.12
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.3

Bot Detection

#6
25
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 252s — typical for humanSize CV 2.12 — diverse, typical for human2% at night — normal sleep pattern23/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.94 — human randomness440 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 21:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.4
Single entry
<=1
232 entries
<=2
283 entries
<=5
306 entries
<=10
307 entries
<=20
307 entries
<=50
307 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)17.1%
Mid (20-55c)71.7%
High (>55c)11.2%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 42.5%

Milan$219
Munich$174
Warsaw$157
Paris$117
Helsinki$40
Ankara$23
Madrid$21
New York City$5
Kuala Lumpur$5
Amsterdam$2
Chengdu$0
Seoul$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.5
Events covered
199

Single bracket

<=1
114 brackets
<=2
180 brackets
<=3
195 brackets
<=4
199 brackets
<=5
199 brackets
<=8
199 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
3/5/2026, 2:19:29 AM1 trades$40 min
3/6/2026, 9:24:35 AM2 trades$100 min
3/6/2026, 2:00:31 PM1 trades$40 min
3/7/2026, 5:12:49 PM2 trades$71 min
3/8/2026, 8:56:29 PM2 trades$71 min
3/9/2026, 1:34:29 PM1 trades$20 min
3/9/2026, 8:00:17 PM1 trades$30 min
3/10/2026, 8:52:47 PM1 trades$50 min
3/11/2026, 11:34:29 AM2 trades$151 min
3/11/2026, 10:17:49 PM1 trades$20 min
3/12/2026, 3:58:49 PM1 trades$100 min
3/13/2026, 2:49:55 PM2 trades$152 min
3/13/2026, 3:19:17 PM2 trades$111 min
3/13/2026, 4:55:49 PM2 trades$33 min
3/14/2026, 11:46:01 AM1 trades$10 min
3/15/2026, 9:49:21 AM4 trades$204 min
3/15/2026, 11:11:09 AM3 trades$41 min
3/15/2026, 1:11:19 PM1 trades$10 min
3/15/2026, 10:33:31 PM3 trades$74 min
3/16/2026, 9:59:45 AM1 trades$10 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-05
03-18
04-01
04-14
04-27
05-10
05-23
05-24

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
WEATHER
100% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
26.2% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.4/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.5 br/event