Polydata

@Tedious-Postage

#91,08179

0x083865811a1b063f7ae722ddef6cffe4419764f6

125d· 968 markets · 800 tradesVol: $52,3162026-07-08T08:17
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

79
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 45%8/20
Profit Factor 1.84x13/15
Sharpe 0.51210/15
Sortino 0.8719/10
EV $+0.71310/10
HHI 8310/10
Profit Days 70%10/10
DD/Peak 5%10/10

Summary

Tedious-Postage is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, ranked #91081 on the global PnL leaderboard with a net profit of $774.61. Over 137 days, they executed 800 trades across 465 markets, maintaining a total volume of $52,316. Their portfolio value is stable around $342.64, complemented by a Smart Score of 79, indicating very good trading performance, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.51.

The trader predominantly focuses on weather markets, accounting for 99% of their activity, with a preference for buying rather than selling, as reflected in a 22% sell rate. Tedious-Postage demonstrates a contrarian and consistent strategy, supported by a 99% win rate and an exceptionally high profit factor of 96.32. Their risk profile appears moderate, with zero recorded drawdown duration and a steady equity trend, suggesting disciplined timing and low volatility in returns.

Tedious-Postage’s strengths lie in their ability to maintain consistent profitability with minimal drawdowns and a strong win streak. Their contrarian approach in weather markets gives them a niche edge on Polymarket. However, the relatively low Bot Score implies manual trading, which might limit scalability and speed compared to automated strategies. The flat equity trend also suggests limited growth potential, warranting attention to potential market shifts or diversification opportunities.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

6
Profitable
PnL $+775
Contrarian
92% entries <$0.50
Weather Pro
99% weather
Win Streak
61 wins in a row
Consistent
82/117 days
Cool Head
DD 5%

Categories

3
🌤️ WEATHER#1,809$783Vol: $50,572
SPORTS#1,257,273$-7Vol: $1,679
CRYPTO#849,886$-1Vol: $64

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$775
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$52,316
Total Redeem
$2,467
Portfolio
$343
Predictions
968
total markets
Trades
621B / 179S
Daily Volume
$36
Account Age
125d
since Mar 5, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$17
Vol: $0
Week
$65
Vol: $1,950
Month
$157
Vol: $4,500
All Time
$775
Vol: $52,316

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
56%
221W / 174L events
Realized PnL
$3,646
Win Rate
99%
100W / 1L
Profit Factor
96.32x
Avg Win
$11
Avg Loss
$-12

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $128 (11.3% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on May 17?$52
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 27?$45
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on March 12?$32
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on April 17?$32
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 2?$28
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 26?$27
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 26?$25
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 29?$24
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on May 18?$23
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 21?$23

Top Losers

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 10?$-12

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.512
Sortino
0.871
HHI
83
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.713
Kelly %
98.8%
Half-Kelly
49.4%
Top-1 market
3.3%
Top-5 markets
12.4%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
6.4
Moderate
Markets / Day
3.7
Active Hours
22/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
22:00 UTC
Median Gap
3.2m
between trades
Avg Gap
2.6h
between trades
Night Trading
3%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.76
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.3

Bot Detection

#6
25
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 191s — typical for humanSize CV 1.76 — diverse, typical for human3% at night — normal sleep pattern22/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.93 — human randomness599 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 22:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.3
Single entry
<=1
357 entries
<=2
434 entries
<=5
464 entries
<=10
465 entries
<=20
465 entries
<=50
465 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)14.7%
Mid (20-55c)78.6%
High (>55c)6.8%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 67.9%

Munich$325
Milan$294
Warsaw$174
Paris$174
Madrid$58
Helsinki$48
Amsterdam$46
Ankara$9
Kuala Lumpur$5
Chengdu$0
Seoul$0
Other$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.4
Events covered
330

Single bracket

<=1
216 brackets
<=2
315 brackets
<=3
329 brackets
<=4
330 brackets
<=5
330 brackets
<=8
330 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
3/5/2026, 2:19:29 AM1 trades$40 min
3/6/2026, 9:24:35 AM2 trades$100 min
3/6/2026, 2:00:31 PM1 trades$40 min
3/7/2026, 5:12:49 PM2 trades$71 min
3/8/2026, 8:56:29 PM2 trades$71 min
3/9/2026, 1:34:29 PM1 trades$20 min
3/9/2026, 8:00:17 PM1 trades$30 min
3/10/2026, 8:52:47 PM1 trades$50 min
3/11/2026, 11:34:29 AM2 trades$151 min
3/11/2026, 10:17:49 PM1 trades$20 min
3/12/2026, 3:58:49 PM1 trades$100 min
3/13/2026, 2:49:55 PM2 trades$152 min
3/13/2026, 3:19:17 PM2 trades$111 min
3/13/2026, 4:55:49 PM2 trades$33 min
3/14/2026, 11:46:01 AM1 trades$10 min
3/15/2026, 9:49:21 AM4 trades$204 min
3/15/2026, 11:11:09 AM3 trades$41 min
3/15/2026, 1:11:19 PM1 trades$10 min
3/15/2026, 10:33:31 PM3 trades$74 min
3/16/2026, 9:59:45 AM1 trades$10 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-05
04-02
04-21
05-10
05-29
06-19
07-08

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
WEATHER
99.4% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
22.4% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.3/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.4 br/event