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@Terrific-Tog

#2,678,71582

0x9e15b9aa268e4bdeb03e8a7f91e42ab671ce903d

122d· 1513 markets · 1641 tradesVol: $145,7572026-06-27T02:19
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

82
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 54%12/20
Profit Factor 3.19x15/15
Sharpe 0.4498/15
Sortino 1.75910/10
EV $+2.24610/10
HHI 2310/10
Profit Days 58%7/10
DD/Peak 19%10/10

Summary

Terrific-Tog is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, with 1,641 trades executed across 696 different markets over 84 days. Despite a high volume of $145,757 traded, the trader currently holds a net PnL of -$373.14 and ranks #2,678,715 globally by profit and loss. Their Smart Score is 82/100, indicating very good trading performance metrics, although the portfolio value is currently zero.

This trader exhibits a contrarian style with a strong win rate of 87.4% and a profit factor exceeding 10, suggesting a focus on high-confidence trades. Terrific-Tog appears to employ a mix of manual and automated strategies, as indicated by a semi-bot score of 50/100. They take relatively low risk per trade, reflected in a modest Sharpe ratio of 0.45 and a stable equity trend with no extended drawdowns. Timing-wise, this trader tends to maintain positions briefly, given a max drawdown duration of zero days and a low sell percentage of 15%.

The strengths of Terrific-Tog lie in consistent winning streaks and a cool-headed approach, allowing them to capitalize on market inefficiencies with precision. However, the negative net PnL and flat portfolio value highlight potential issues in scaling profitability or exposure management. Additionally, the lack of diversification into weather markets and the semi-bot trading style may limit adaptability in rapidly changing conditions. Overall, Terrific-Tog demonstrates solid tactical execution but faces challenges in converting volume into sustained profits.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

3
Contrarian
63% entries <$0.50
Win Streak
30 wins in a row
Cool Head
DD 19%

Categories

1
CRYPTO#1,515,657$-373Vol: $145,757

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-373
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$145,757
Total Redeem
$4,023
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
1513
total markets
Trades
1390B / 251S
Daily Volume
$181
Account Age
122d
since Mar 17, 2026

Periods

#2
Month
$-182
Vol: $2,419
All Time
$-373
Vol: $145,757

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
55%
250W / 206L events
Realized PnL
$10,256
Win Rate
87%
195W / 28L
Profit Factor
10.33x
Avg Win
$19
Avg Loss
$-13

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $184 (5.4% of PnL)

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET$63
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET$62
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET$59
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET$53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET$53
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET$49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$48
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET$48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET$47
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET$47

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET$-47
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET$-33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET$-29
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$-28
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET$-24
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET$-20
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET$-17
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET$-16
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET$-14
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET$-13

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.449
Sortino
1.759
HHI
23
Diversified
EV per $1
$2.246
Kelly %
80.7%
Half-Kelly
40.3%
Top-1 market
0.6%
Top-5 markets
3%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
30.4
Active
Markets / Day
12.9
Active Hours
22/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
15:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.7m
between trades
Avg Gap
14.3m
between trades
Night Trading
1%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
0.93
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
6 min
Avg Trades / Session
6.2

Bot Detection

#6
50
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

8 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
MEDIUM
Median gap 102s — typical for humanSize CV 0.93 — diverse, typical for human1% at night — normal sleep pattern22/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.87 — human randomness30 trades/day — suspiciously high13 markets/day — mass coverage465 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 15:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
2
Single entry
<=1
302 entries
<=2
503 entries
<=5
686 entries
<=10
696 entries
<=20
696 entries
<=50
696 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)19.9%
Mid (20-55c)69.3%
High (>55c)10.8%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 51.8%

Other$3,418

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
696

Single bracket

<=1
696 brackets
<=2
696 brackets
<=3
696 brackets
<=4
696 brackets
<=5
696 brackets
<=8
696 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
4/17/2026, 3:14:50 PM9 trades$2619 min
4/20/2026, 10:30:12 AM1 trades$190 min
4/20/2026, 10:39:04 AM1 trades$200 min
4/20/2026, 2:35:28 PM1 trades$50 min
4/20/2026, 2:54:34 PM1 trades$50 min
4/20/2026, 2:59:36 PM1 trades$50 min
4/20/2026, 4:42:06 PM2 trades$30 min
4/20/2026, 4:49:02 PM1 trades$50 min
4/20/2026, 4:57:52 PM2 trades$152 min
4/20/2026, 5:11:54 PM21 trades$9034 min
4/20/2026, 5:51:50 PM54 trades$45162 min
4/20/2026, 7:01:44 PM6 trades$344 min
4/20/2026, 7:18:24 PM1 trades$40 min
4/20/2026, 7:43:42 PM4 trades$76 min
4/20/2026, 8:03:44 PM1 trades$10 min
4/20/2026, 8:25:32 PM3 trades$34 min
4/22/2026, 9:20:40 AM4 trades$203 min
4/22/2026, 9:31:38 AM2 trades$194 min
4/22/2026, 9:44:28 AM1 trades$10 min
4/22/2026, 9:55:36 AM2 trades$103 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-18
04-15
04-25
05-01
05-11
05-22

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
15.3% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 2/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event