Polydata
TheOpportunist

@TheOpportunist

#5,53671

0x7d2f82da7ae8c910bd1e89475be705d313daef1a

372d· 846 markets · 7953 tradesVol: $7,233,523 @0xMso2026-07-09T08:34
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

71
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 75%20/20
Profit Factor 1.51x9/15
Sharpe 0.1643/15
Sortino 0.1822/10
EV $+0.51510/10
HHI 7510/10
Profit Days 77%10/10
DD/Peak 32%8/10

Summary

TheOpportunist is an experienced Polymarket trader ranked #5536 on the global PnL leaderboard with a net profit of $28,465.92. With 7,953 trades across 252 markets over 536 days, they maintain a high level of activity and have generated a total trading volume exceeding $7.2 million. Despite the respectable net PnL, TheOpportunist’s portfolio value currently stands low at $4.95, and their equity trend shows a recent decline.

TheOpportunist demonstrates a moderately aggressive trading style characterized by a low win rate of 26.5% and a profit factor of 0.61, indicating that losses often outweigh gains. Their smart score of 71/100 suggests effective trade selection, but a Sharpe ratio of 0.16 points to limited risk-adjusted returns. The trader rarely sells their positions (8% sell rate) and holds diamond hands, suggesting a longer-term hold strategy rather than frequent exit timing. TheOpportunist appears to be a semi-automated trader, balancing bot-assisted and manual trades.

Strengths for TheOpportunist include a solid volume base and consistent activity, supported by top badges like Sniper and Whale, reflecting precision and capacity to move significant funds. However, the downward equity trend and low profit factor present risks, indicating potential challenges in sustaining profitability. The low Sharpe ratio and modest sell percentage further highlight vulnerability to drawdowns and inefficient risk management on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Sniper
Win Rate 75%
Profitable
PnL $+28,466
Diamond Hands
8% sell
Win Streak
14 wins in a row
Whale
$2,076,259
Consistent
141/184 days
High Roller
$3,874/day

Categories

6
SPORTS#1,993$28,500Vol: $7,126,882
🏛️ POLITICS#1,497,450$-98Vol: $10,054
💰 FINANCE#584,272$-20Vol: $1,433
🎭 CULTURE#579,195$-2Vol: $300
CRYPTO#185,498$18Vol: $177
💻 TECH#194,758$-2Vol: $150

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$28,466
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$7,233,523
Total Redeem
$598,820
Portfolio
$5
Predictions
846
total markets
Trades
7306B / 647S
Daily Volume
$3,874
Account Age
372d
since Jul 2, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$0
Vol: $0
Week
$18,625
Vol: $374,530
Month
$39,019
Vol: $833,211
All Time
$28,466
Vol: $7,233,523

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
75%
247W / 81L events
Realized PnL
$1,057,392
Win Rate
27%
44W / 122L
Profit Factor
0.61x
Avg Win
$10,250
Avg Loss
$-6,049

Top Winners

Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 1.5$53,933
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?$32,850
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?$31,998
Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?$23,720
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?$22,954
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?$20,134
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox$20,096
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?$17,965
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-26?$16,723
Spain vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score$16,696

Top Losers

Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?$-42,525
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?$-33,034
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?$-30,025
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?$-19,500
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05?$-17,519
Will AC Milan vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw?$-17,156
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals$-17,099
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-09?$-16,633
Pistons vs. Cavaliers$-16,240
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels$-15,600

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.164
Sortino
0.182
HHI
75
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.515
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
2%
Top-5 markets
8.4%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
48.7
Active
Markets / Day
1.5
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
22:00 UTC
Median Gap
11s
between trades
Avg Gap
20.5m
between trades
Night Trading
18%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
5.30
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
4.8

Bot Detection

#6
50
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
MEDIUM
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 11s — suspiciously fastSize CV 5.30 — diverse, typical for human18% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.03 — human randomness49 trades/day — suspiciously high336 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 22:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
29
Heavy DCA
<=1
88 entries
<=2
96 entries
<=5
121 entries
<=10
144 entries
<=20
177 entries
<=50
214 entries
>50
38 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0.5%
Mid (20-55c)43.7%
High (>55c)55.7%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 1.7%

Houston$-2
Milan$-434
Seattle$-3,938
San Francisco$-8,008
Miami$-8,654
Chicago$-16,182
Madrid$-18,172
Atlanta$-18,259
Paris$-19,500
Los Angeles$-39,895
Other$-153,949

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
245

Single bracket

<=1
238 brackets
<=2
245 brackets
<=3
245 brackets
<=4
245 brackets
<=5
245 brackets
<=8
245 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
1/25/2026, 12:19:50 PM4 trades$2,5114 min
1/25/2026, 1:06:36 PM1 trades$960 min
1/25/2026, 1:30:04 PM1 trades$1,5000 min
1/25/2026, 1:59:44 PM1 trades$2140 min
1/25/2026, 5:04:30 PM4 trades$4,4695 min
1/25/2026, 5:31:50 PM2 trades$1,9710 min
1/25/2026, 11:26:06 PM1 trades$1,2630 min
1/26/2026, 9:01:21 PM23 trades$3,6009 min
1/26/2026, 9:16:21 PM1 trades$1350 min
1/27/2026, 9:52:45 PM1 trades$1,4200 min
1/27/2026, 10:03:23 PM1 trades$180 min
1/28/2026, 5:27:08 PM1 trades$2,3000 min
1/28/2026, 5:36:44 PM1 trades$1,1560 min
1/28/2026, 10:33:08 PM3 trades$1,4087 min
1/30/2026, 12:46:50 AM31 trades$1,5777 min
1/31/2026, 1:16:04 PM8 trades$9505 min
1/31/2026, 1:55:36 PM2 trades$110 min
1/31/2026, 2:01:48 PM7 trades$569 min
1/31/2026, 2:19:54 PM1 trades$90 min
1/31/2026, 7:09:46 PM1 trades$2,2980 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
07-13
12-28
02-03
03-14
04-22
06-02
07-07

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
8.1% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 29/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event