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@TimeToFire

#2,944,71812

0x0a55f6b56bd976ae3ddfbffc9c2c4b70a0f9f9be

372d· 36 markets · 4300 tradesVol: $18,580,6572026-06-29T23:23
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

12
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 30%0/20
Profit Factor 0.31x0/15
HHI 45410/10
Profit Days 36%2/10

Summary

TimeToFire is a highly active trader on Polymarket, with over 4,300 trades executed across 36 markets in 281 days. Despite substantial trading volume exceeding $18 million, TimeToFire currently holds a net loss of approximately $2.57 million and ranks near the bottom of the global PnL leaderboard at #2,944,718. The trader’s portfolio value is zero, indicating a depleted or liquidated position, and their Sharpe ratio of -0.49 reflects negative risk-adjusted returns.

TimeToFire appears to favor high-risk, high-volume trading strategies, as suggested by badges like Whale and High Roller. Their win rate is 40%, with a profit factor below 1 (0.85), implying losses outweigh gains on average. The absence of weather market participation and a sell percentage of zero may indicate a buy-and-hold approach or reluctance to close positions early. The trader’s Smart Score of 12/100 and Bot Score of 30/100 suggest beginner-level proficiency and manual human trading rather than algorithmic strategies.

The key strength of TimeToFire is the substantial market engagement and persistence, evidenced by a long trading history and multiple badges signaling resilience. However, the consistent downward equity trend, large net losses, and negative performance metrics highlight significant risks. Without improvements in risk management or strategy, TimeToFire’s current approach on Polymarket carries a high potential for continued drawdowns.

Badges

4
Diamond Hands
0% sell
Win Streak
5 wins in a row
Whale
$8,743,312
High Roller
$31,110/day

Categories

2
SPORTS#1,774,463$-2,574,717Vol: $18,580,350
📈 ECONOMICS#15,363$58Vol: $307

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-2,574,659
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$18,580,657
Total Redeem
$2,399,327
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
36
total markets
Trades
4300B / 0S
Daily Volume
$31,110
Account Age
372d
since Jul 13, 2025

Periods

#2
Month
$-539,598
Vol: $7,509,734
All Time
$-2,574,659
Vol: $18,580,657

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
31%
9W / 20L events
Realized PnL
$1,918,040
Win Rate
40%
6W / 9L
Profit Factor
0.85x
Avg Win
$224,601
Avg Loss
$-176,367

Top Winners

Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?$451,042
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?$392,000
Spread: Spurs (-5.5)$195,599
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main C$172,954
Spread: Germany (-3.5)$135,951
Celtics vs. Thunder$58

Top Losers

Will United States win on 2026-06-12?$-540,296
Eagles vs. Chargers$-296,978
Packers vs. Bears$-210,896
Patriots vs. Ravens$-142,624
Bills vs. Patriots$-116,795
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main $-98,148
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-10?$-94,800
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Car$-86,515
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeti$-249

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.491
Sortino
-0.631
HHI
454
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.694
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
8.5%
Top-5 markets
36.7%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
15.3
Active
Markets / Day
0.1
Active Hours
17/24
Extended
Peak Hour
19:00 UTC
Median Gap
5s
between trades
Avg Gap
4.0m
between trades
Night Trading
26%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
8.58
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
12 min
Avg Trades / Session
55.4

Bot Detection

#6
30
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
64% < 10s — regular intervalSize CV 8.58 — diverse, typical for human26% at night — bot never sleeps17/24 hours — normal hoursSession CV 1.18 — human randomness15 trades/day — very active

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 19:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
119.4
Heavy DCA
<=1
4 entries
<=2
5 entries
<=5
7 entries
<=10
10 entries
<=20
13 entries
<=50
23 entries
>50
13 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)5.3%
Mid (20-55c)57.5%
High (>55c)37.2%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 93.3%

Other$-239,700

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
35

Single bracket

<=1
34 brackets
<=2
35 brackets
<=3
35 brackets
<=4
35 brackets
<=5
35 brackets
<=8
35 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
9/7/2025, 5:34:54 PM4 trades$99,9386 min
9/7/2025, 5:48:22 PM6 trades$97,8088 min
9/10/2025, 2:54:34 PM1 trades$2490 min
11/27/2025, 5:03:53 PM34 trades$254,88619 min
11/27/2025, 5:45:33 PM1 trades$340,0000 min
12/4/2025, 11:49:13 PM37 trades$145,5071 min
12/5/2025, 12:24:15 AM97 trades$152,21725 min
12/9/2025, 1:14:15 AM1 trades$296,9780 min
12/10/2025, 7:56:58 PM3 trades$94,8001 min
12/11/2025, 2:34:19 AM47 trades$146,99112 min
12/12/2025, 12:57:42 AM26 trades$270,9321 min
12/12/2025, 1:03:52 AM1 trades$24,3750 min
12/14/2025, 5:44:05 PM55 trades$182,58316 min
12/14/2025, 9:13:27 PM1 trades$78,2510 min
12/14/2025, 9:21:39 PM1 trades$27,7240 min
12/20/2025, 12:12:45 AM21 trades$180,63029 min
12/20/2025, 12:47:07 AM3 trades$5200 min
12/21/2025, 12:48:01 AM5 trades$115,0100 min
12/21/2025, 1:01:19 AM7 trades$95,8860 min
12/21/2025, 5:37:59 PM14 trades$153,9444 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
09-07
12-05
12-11
12-21
01-17
03-08
05-10
06-15

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 119.4/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event