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@TimeToFire

#2,722,32415

0x0a55f6b56bd976ae3ddfbffc9c2c4b70a0f9f9be

309d· 25 markets · 1988 tradesVol: $11,070,9232026-05-15T12:32
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

15
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 36%3/20
Profit Factor 0.49x0/15
HHI 7159/10
Profit Days 42%3/10

Summary

TimeToFire is an active trader on Polymarket with 1,988 trades across 25 markets over 245 days. Despite a high total volume of over $11 million, the trader ranks low at #2,722,324 globally and has an overall net loss exceeding $2 million. Their portfolio value stands at approximately $540,000, with a Sharpe ratio of -0.32 indicating negative risk-adjusted returns. The trader holds a beginner-level Smart Score of 15/100, suggesting limited effectiveness in their trading decisions.

TimeToFire appears to adopt a contrarian and long-term holding approach, as indicated by badges like Contrarian and Diamond Hands, with no recorded selling activity and a 100% win rate reported. Their strategy seems focused on dollar-cost averaging (DCA) and maintaining positions over extended periods. The lack of trades in weather markets and a 0% sell rate point to a specific, possibly narrow market focus. The negative profit factor and persistent losses imply a high-risk profile with poor timing or market selection despite frequent activity.

The main strength of TimeToFire lies in their consistent engagement and an upward equity trend, showing portfolio growth despite losses. However, the significant net negative PnL, low Smart and Bot Scores, and unexplained 100% win rate raise concerns about their trading effectiveness and data accuracy. This combination suggests that while TimeToFire is committed and active, their current strategy on Polymarket carries considerable financial risk and may benefit from refinement.

Badges

6
Contrarian
53% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
0% sell
DCA Master
avg 79.5 entries/market
Win Streak
7 wins in a row
Whale
$4,846,541
High Roller
$19,782/day

Categories

2
SPORTS#1,645,893$-2,035,119Vol: $11,070,616
📈 ECONOMICS#14,410$58Vol: $307

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-2,035,061
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$11,070,923
Total Redeem
$2,629,279
Portfolio
$540,528
Predictions
25
total markets
Trades
1988B / 0S
Daily Volume
$19,782
Account Age
309d
since Jul 13, 2025

Periods

#2
Month
$442,245
Vol: $533,786
All Time
$-2,035,061
Vol: $11,070,923

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
38%
9W / 15L events
Realized PnL
$1,475,703
Win Rate
100%
7W / 0L
Profit Factor
0x
Avg Win
$240,060
Avg Loss
$0

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $1,333,782 (79.4% of PnL)

Top Winners

Patriots vs. Ravens$849,783
Eagles vs. Chargers$296,978
Packers vs. Bears$187,021
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Car$153,805
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-10?$102,700
Bills vs. Patriots$90,076
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeti$58

Top Losers

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.316
Sortino
-0.438
HHI
715
Moderate
EV per $1
$-0.502
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
15.3%
Top-5 markets
48.1%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
8.1
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.1
Active Hours
16/24
Extended
Peak Hour
0:00 UTC
Median Gap
10s
between trades
Avg Gap
4.4m
between trades
Night Trading
36%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
7.16
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
46
Avg Duration
12 min
Avg Trades / Session
43.2

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
MEDIUM
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 10s — suspiciously fastSize CV 7.15 — diverse, typical for human36% at night — bot never sleeps16/24 hours — normal hoursSession CV 1.07 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 0:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
79.5
Heavy DCA
<=1
3 entries
<=2
4 entries
<=5
6 entries
<=10
9 entries
<=20
11 entries
<=50
19 entries
>50
6 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)11.5%
Mid (20-55c)60.1%
High (>55c)28.5%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 81%

Other$1,680,421

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
24

Single bracket

<=1
23 brackets
<=2
24 brackets
<=3
24 brackets
<=4
24 brackets
<=5
24 brackets
<=8
24 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
9/7/2025, 5:34:54 PM4 trades$99,9386 min
9/7/2025, 5:48:22 PM6 trades$97,8088 min
9/10/2025, 2:54:34 PM1 trades$2490 min
11/27/2025, 5:03:53 PM34 trades$254,88619 min
11/27/2025, 5:45:33 PM1 trades$340,0000 min
12/4/2025, 11:49:13 PM37 trades$145,5071 min
12/5/2025, 12:24:15 AM97 trades$152,21725 min
12/9/2025, 1:14:15 AM1 trades$296,9780 min
12/10/2025, 7:56:58 PM3 trades$94,8001 min
12/11/2025, 2:34:19 AM47 trades$146,99112 min
12/12/2025, 12:57:42 AM26 trades$270,9321 min
12/12/2025, 1:03:52 AM1 trades$24,3750 min
12/14/2025, 5:44:05 PM55 trades$182,58316 min
12/14/2025, 9:13:27 PM1 trades$78,2510 min
12/14/2025, 9:21:39 PM1 trades$27,7240 min
12/20/2025, 12:12:45 AM21 trades$180,63029 min
12/20/2025, 12:47:07 AM3 trades$5200 min
12/21/2025, 12:48:01 AM5 trades$115,0100 min
12/21/2025, 1:01:19 AM7 trades$95,8860 min
12/21/2025, 5:37:59 PM14 trades$153,9444 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
09-07
12-05
12-11
12-21
01-17
03-08
05-10

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 79.5/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event