Polydata

@Tired-Rumor

#1,55175

0xa7dfc51c051eb0452dc4b22d9893610887b85eee

83d· 443 markets · 7224 tradesVol: $4,696,2582026-07-17T15:36
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

75
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 85%20/20
Profit Factor 0.35x0/15
Sharpe 1.38015/15
Sortino 23762339.97410/10
HHI 5210/10
Profit Days 98%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Tired-Rumor is an active Polymarket trader ranked #1551 on the global PnL leaderboard. With 7,224 trades across 298 markets and a net PnL of $120,815.81, they have demonstrated significant engagement over 64 days. Their smart score of 75/100 indicates very good trading skills, though their portfolio currently holds no open positions. Tired-Rumor’s total volume traded exceeds $4.6 million, reflecting high activity despite a modest win rate.

This trader’s style appears contrarian and patient, supported by a low sell percentage of 2% and badges like "Contrarian" and "Diamond Hands." Tired-Rumor maintains a relatively stable equity trend and a Sharpe ratio of 1.38, suggesting consistent risk-adjusted returns. Their profit factor of 0.35 and win rate under 20% imply a strategy relying on occasional high-impact wins rather than frequent small gains. The mix of semi-automated and manual trading, as indicated by the bot score of 50/100, shows a hybrid approach likely balancing algorithmic signals with human judgment.

Tired-Rumor’s strengths include disciplined holding patterns and the ability to capitalize on select opportunities, supported by a "Sniper" badge and a zero-day max drawdown duration. However, the low profit factor and win rate highlight potential risks, as many trades may be unprofitable, relying heavily on a few large wins. The flat equity trend suggests limited recent growth, which could concern traders seeking momentum. Overall, Tired-Rumor’s approach on Polymarket reflects careful, contrarian trading with moderate risk tolerance.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

9
Sniper
Win Rate 85%
Profitable
PnL $+120,816
Contrarian
67% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
2% sell
Win Streak
20 wins in a row
Whale
$1,094,846
Consistent
43/44 days
High Roller
$17,107/day
Cool Head
DD 0%

Categories

1
SPORTS#4,337$12,470Vol: $269,901

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$120,816
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$4,696,258
Total Redeem
$374,244
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
443
total markets
Trades
7113B / 111S
Daily Volume
$17,107
Account Age
83d
since Apr 26, 2026

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
87%
175W / 27L events
Realized PnL
$1,045,543
Win Rate
20%
49W / 198L
Profit Factor
0.35x
Avg Win
$4,769
Avg Loss
$-3,402

Top Winners

Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playo$22,975
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playo$14,523
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta$13,322
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Play$12,986
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag$12,940
Valorant: FUT Esports vs BBL Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup EM$12,580
Valorant: MIBR vs KRÜ Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas $11,671
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stag$11,170
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Western Conference?$10,773
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage$10,675

Top Losers

Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Play$-13,390
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Gro$-13,125
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs$-10,736
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Gr$-9,691
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season$-8,625
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana$-8,600
Counter-Strike: paiN vs M80 (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A$-8,193
Valorant: Karmine Corp vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Esports World Cup $-8,075
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qu$-7,876
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playof$-7,875

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
1.380
Sortino
inf
HHI
52
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.507
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
1.4%
Top-5 markets
5.9%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
179.7
Very active
Markets / Day
7.4
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
7:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.1m
between trades
Avg Gap
8.7m
between trades
Night Trading
22%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.79
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
3 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.7

Bot Detection

#6
50
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 68s — typical for humanSize CV 2.79 — diverse, typical for human22% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.02 — human randomness180 trades/day — automation

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 7:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
23.9
Heavy DCA
<=1
36 entries
<=2
61 entries
<=5
89 entries
<=10
124 entries
<=20
177 entries
<=50
252 entries
>50
46 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)6.2%
Mid (20-55c)73.4%
High (>55c)20.4%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 59.8%

London$0
Atlanta$-30,914
Other$-409,092

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.2
Events covered
245

Single bracket

<=1
201 brackets
<=2
239 brackets
<=3
245 brackets
<=4
245 brackets
<=5
245 brackets
<=8
245 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
4/26/2026, 9:55:42 PM7 trades$4234 min
4/27/2026, 3:37:32 PM6 trades$3,2956 min
4/27/2026, 3:52:12 PM4 trades$5055 min
4/27/2026, 5:01:02 PM1 trades$1210 min
4/27/2026, 5:26:24 PM2 trades$110 min
4/27/2026, 6:25:18 PM1 trades$4760 min
4/27/2026, 7:06:34 PM2 trades$242 min
4/27/2026, 7:29:34 PM1 trades$20 min
4/27/2026, 7:59:12 PM1 trades$140 min
4/27/2026, 8:09:24 PM2 trades$114 min
4/27/2026, 8:50:28 PM1 trades$420 min
4/27/2026, 8:56:06 PM1 trades$820 min
4/27/2026, 9:02:10 PM1 trades$70 min
4/27/2026, 9:10:16 PM1 trades$4730 min
4/27/2026, 9:17:40 PM1 trades$1780 min
4/27/2026, 9:35:56 PM1 trades$70 min
4/27/2026, 9:44:00 PM1 trades$30 min
4/27/2026, 10:24:20 PM1 trades$270 min
4/27/2026, 10:35:16 PM1 trades$1500 min
4/27/2026, 10:43:58 PM1 trades$1,6430 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
04-27
05-04
05-11
05-18
05-25
06-01
06-21

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
1.5% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 23.9/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.2 br/event