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@Tough-Doorknob

#2,608,75467

0xd1944a18b6d325ee16718597117c84c24e562f6e

56d· 691 markets · 423 tradesVol: $141,843 @overdose552026-06-15T21:17
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

67
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 92%20/20
Profit Factor 136.42x15/15
Sharpe 0.1242/15
Sortino 0.1081/10
EV $+0.1558/10
HHI 8710/10
Profit Days 73%10/10
DD/Peak 66%1/10

Summary

Tough-Doorknob is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, having executed 423 trades across 339 markets over 64 days. Despite a high win rate of 99.7% and a strong profit factor of 136.42, the trader currently holds a net loss of $323.66 and ranks #2,608,754 on the global PnL leaderboard. Their portfolio value is nearly depleted at $0.25, reflecting the downward trend in their equity.

The trader’s strategy appears to focus on frequent, consistent trades with a low sell percentage of 5%, suggesting a preference for holding positions rather than quick flips. Tough-Doorknob avoids weather markets entirely and demonstrates a low Sharpe ratio of 0.12, indicating limited risk-adjusted returns. The short max drawdown duration and badges like “Sniper” and “Diamond Hands” hint at a patient, steady approach, but the slow interface speed and low bot score suggest manual trading rather than algorithmic methods.

Tough-Doorknob’s key strengths include exceptional consistency and a remarkably high win rate, which is rare on Polymarket. However, the persistent negative PnL and declining equity trend raise concerns about the effectiveness of the strategy in generating sustainable profits. The trader’s near-zero portfolio value also suggests limited capacity for recovery or scaling, highlighting potential risks if current patterns continue.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

4
Sniper
Win Rate 92%
Diamond Hands
5% sell
Win Streak
271 wins in a row
Consistent
24/33 days

Categories

6
SPORTS#1,566,323$-156Vol: $90,180
🏛️ POLITICS#1,440,164$-58Vol: $23,228
CRYPTO#1,223,792$-24Vol: $18,206
🎭 CULTURE#711,234$-21Vol: $5,250
📈 ECONOMICS#628,520$-55Vol: $2,929
🌤️ WEATHER#232,121$-10Vol: $2,049

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-324
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$141,843
Total Redeem
$2,831
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
691
total markets
Trades
402B / 21S
Daily Volume
$50
Account Age
56d
since Apr 25, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$-44
Vol: $2,933
Week
$-44
Vol: $92,214
Month
$-299
Vol: $118,645
All Time
$-324
Vol: $141,843

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
92%
250W / 21L events
Realized PnL
$373
Win Rate
100%
310W / 1L
Profit Factor
136.42x
Avg Win
$1
Avg Loss
$-3

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $22 (5% of PnL)

Top Winners

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?$10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$6
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET$6
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET$3
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET$3
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET$3
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET$3
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$3
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$3
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET$3

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET$-3

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.124
Sortino
0.108
HHI
87
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.155
Kelly %
99.2%
Half-Kelly
49.6%
Top-1 market
7%
Top-5 markets
13.1%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
8.4
Moderate
Markets / Day
6.7
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
15:00 UTC
Median Gap
29.7m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.8h
between trades
Night Trading
17%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.45
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.2

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

4 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 1781s — typical for humanSize CV 1.45 — diverse, typical for human17% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clock

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 15:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.2
Single entry
<=1
287 entries
<=2
333 entries
<=5
338 entries
<=10
339 entries
<=20
339 entries
<=50
339 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)6%
Mid (20-55c)1.5%
High (>55c)92.5%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 50.5%

Other$433
Shanghai$0
Paris$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
339

Single bracket

<=1
339 brackets
<=2
339 brackets
<=3
339 brackets
<=4
339 brackets
<=5
339 brackets
<=8
339 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
4/26/2026, 5:27:14 AM1 trades$40 min
4/26/2026, 2:23:44 PM1 trades$40 min
4/26/2026, 6:08:58 PM1 trades$40 min
4/26/2026, 7:32:38 PM1 trades$40 min
4/26/2026, 8:32:24 PM2 trades$40 min
4/26/2026, 10:17:12 PM1 trades$40 min
4/26/2026, 10:37:08 PM1 trades$40 min
4/26/2026, 11:13:12 PM1 trades$40 min
4/26/2026, 11:22:08 PM1 trades$40 min
4/26/2026, 11:54:10 PM1 trades$40 min
4/27/2026, 12:02:10 AM1 trades$40 min
4/27/2026, 12:12:16 AM1 trades$40 min
4/27/2026, 12:28:18 AM1 trades$40 min
4/27/2026, 12:53:46 AM2 trades$40 min
4/27/2026, 1:27:10 AM1 trades$40 min
4/27/2026, 2:53:16 AM1 trades$40 min
4/27/2026, 5:37:08 AM1 trades$40 min
4/27/2026, 7:34:12 AM2 trades$40 min
4/27/2026, 8:47:06 AM1 trades$40 min
4/27/2026, 3:07:18 PM2 trades$40 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
04-28
05-04
05-13
05-18
05-23
05-28
06-14

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0.3% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
5% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.2/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event