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Tricky-Tender

@Tricky-Tender

#2,260,48615

0x67c4304ce13d8306130fdc23d7320d0b82dcdfae

65d· 34 markets · 250 tradesVol: $144,304 @BroXcellence2026-06-22T06:23
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

15
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 32%1/20
Profit Factor 0.96x2/15
HHI 8728/10
Profit Days 44%4/10
DD/Peak 924%0/10

Summary

Tricky-Tender is a relatively active trader on Polymarket with 250 trades spread over 276 days and participation in 34 markets. Despite a high total volume of $144,304, their net profit and loss stands at negative $54.22, placing them at rank #2,260,486 on the global PnL leaderboard. Their portfolio value is $2,000, and they hold a low Smart Score of 15/100, indicating a beginner status.

The trader appears to have a diverse market approach but shows no engagement with weather markets. Tricky-Tender’s win rate is modest at 39.3%, although they maintain a strong profit factor of 4.41, suggesting profitable trades when wins occur. Their trading style is manual, with a 41% sell rate and an equity trend that is gradually increasing. The Sharpe ratio of -0.04 and zero max drawdown duration indicate low risk-taking but limited returns.

Tricky-Tender’s strengths include consistent activity and a growing equity trend, which may reflect improving skills over time. However, the negative net PnL and low Smart Score highlight risks associated with inexperience and a suboptimal win rate. These factors suggest that while Tricky-Tender shows potential, their current strategy on Polymarket carries significant challenges to achieving consistent profitability.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Categories

7
🏛️ POLITICS#326,344$1Vol: $111,309
CRYPTO#1,305,775$-42Vol: $11,802
🎭 CULTURE#738,040$-38Vol: $9,968
📈 ECONOMICS#30,712$15Vol: $6,460
💻 TECH#15,829$11Vol: $2,725
🌤️ WEATHER#184,107$-1Vol: $2,000
💰 FINANCE#369,812$-0Vol: $40

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-54
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$144,304
Total Redeem
$11
Portfolio
$2,000
Predictions
34
total markets
Trades
147B / 103S
Daily Volume
$40
Account Age
65d
since May 8, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$1
Vol: $0
Week
$1
Vol: $0
Month
$4
Vol: $5,021
All Time
$-54
Vol: $144,304

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
32%
9W / 19L events
Realized PnL
$246
Win Rate
39%
11W / 17L
Profit Factor
4.41x
Avg Win
$110
Avg Loss
$-16

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $1,034 (110.4% of PnL)

Top Winners

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$767
Ethereum Up or Down on June 6?$168
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$100
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?$58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET$52
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Stra$40
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the$14
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?$11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET$1
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?$1

Top Losers

Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?$-190
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nominati$-50
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?$-16
Clavicular sentenced to prison?$-8
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1AM ET$-5
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?$-2
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?$-1
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?$-1
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$-1
Will GameStop acquire eBay?$-0

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.043
Sortino
-0.051
HHI
872
Moderate
EV per $1
$-0.024
Kelly %
32.1%
Half-Kelly
16.1%
Top-1 market
14.5%
Top-5 markets
57.7%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
6.8
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.9
Active Hours
20/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
4:00 UTC
Median Gap
7.2m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.6h
between trades
Night Trading
20%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.34
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.9

Bot Detection

#6
10
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 434s — typical for humanSize CV 2.34 — diverse, typical for human20% at night — different timezone?20/24 hours — extended daySession CV 0.79 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 4:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
4.3
Moderate DCA
<=1
21 entries
<=2
25 entries
<=5
27 entries
<=10
29 entries
<=20
33 entries
<=50
34 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)5.4%
Mid (20-55c)62.6%
High (>55c)32%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 52%

Other$937

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.1
Events covered
30

Single bracket

<=1
27 brackets
<=2
29 brackets
<=3
30 brackets
<=4
30 brackets
<=5
30 brackets
<=8
30 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
5/8/2026, 11:42:42 AM1 trades$1,0050 min
5/8/2026, 11:57:38 AM2 trades$1,0024 min
5/8/2026, 1:00:38 PM1 trades$5590 min
5/8/2026, 1:07:21 PM1 trades$5600 min
5/8/2026, 2:24:57 PM1 trades$940 min
5/8/2026, 2:40:33 PM2 trades$1034 min
5/8/2026, 3:39:33 PM1 trades$100 min
5/8/2026, 3:45:41 PM2 trades$7601 min
5/8/2026, 4:01:49 PM1 trades$7000 min
5/8/2026, 6:32:55 PM2 trades$881 min
5/9/2026, 4:37:40 AM2 trades$2501 min
5/9/2026, 9:34:12 AM1 trades$7330 min
5/9/2026, 9:57:46 AM2 trades$1293 min
5/9/2026, 5:09:36 PM1 trades$70 min
5/9/2026, 5:58:50 PM1 trades$40 min
5/9/2026, 6:04:35 PM1 trades$1110 min
5/9/2026, 8:17:49 PM1 trades$4450 min
5/10/2026, 7:12:33 AM1 trades$5610 min
5/10/2026, 1:57:56 PM5 trades$2816 min
5/10/2026, 2:39:28 PM1 trades$1110 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-31
05-21
05-28
06-05
07-01
01-01

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
41.2% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 4.3/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.1 br/event