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@Troubled-Need

#18,54456

0x7368675d907a8dd84b7fe53f86bfbe76e04b8b3b

115d· 41 markets · 375 tradesVol: $826,7072026-06-27T08:41
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

56
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 76%20/20
Profit Factor 1.25x6/15
Sharpe 0.0521/15
Sortino 0.0340/10
EV $+2.05810/10
HHI 6079/10
Profit Days 75%10/10
DD/Peak 86%0/10

Summary

Troubled-Need is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, with 375 trades executed across 41 markets over the past year. Ranked #18,544 on the global PnL leaderboard, they have generated a net profit of $6,857.04 on a total volume of $826,707. Their Smart Score of 56 indicates a good level of trading skill, and their portfolio value remains stable around $161.24 with an equity trend showing little volatility.

This trader exhibits a manual trading style with a low bot score of 15, suggesting decisions are human-driven rather than algorithmic. Troubled-Need prefers a diverse set of markets but does not engage in weather-related predictions. Their risk profile appears conservative, reflected in a moderate profit factor of 1.41 and a low Sharpe ratio of 0.05, indicating limited risk-adjusted returns. With a high win rate of 88.6% and a sell percentage of 36%, they seem to take profits relatively often and manage downside risk carefully. Timing appears steady, with no significant drawdown duration, implying consistent market engagement.

Troubled-Need’s key strength lies in their high win rate and consistent profitability, supported by badges such as Sniper and DCA Master, which highlight precision and disciplined averaging down. However, the low Sharpe ratio and flat equity trend suggest limited upside beyond steady gains. Their relatively low portfolio value and overall rank indicate room to scale trading impact. The absence of weather market exposure might reduce diversification but also limits risk from that niche sector. Overall, Troubled-Need demonstrates solid manual trading skills with cautious risk management on Polymarket.

Badges

6
Sniper
Win Rate 76%
Profitable
PnL $+6,857
DCA Master
avg 5.8 entries/market
Win Streak
28 wins in a row
Whale
$220,846
Consistent
15/20 days

Categories

8
🏛️ POLITICS#1,577$29,316Vol: $478,443
📢 MENTIONS#169,630$-24,034Vol: $231,679
💰 FINANCE#80,096$4Vol: $48,705
📈 ECONOMICS#1,516$2,466Vol: $38,639
🎭 CULTURE#14,075$189Vol: $16,803
SPORTS#1,719,447$-1,213Vol: $7,685
CRYPTO#77,692$126Vol: $4,545
💻 TECH#33,507$2Vol: $209

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$6,857
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$826,707
Total Redeem
$22,496
Portfolio
$161
Predictions
41
total markets
Trades
238B / 137S
Daily Volume
$605
Account Age
115d
since Mar 7, 2026

Periods

#2
Week
$-188
Vol: $0
Month
$-2,868
Vol: $97,547
All Time
$6,857
Vol: $826,707

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
68%
15W / 7L events
Realized PnL
$10,028
Win Rate
89%
31W / 4L
Profit Factor
1.41x
Avg Win
$1,092
Avg Loss
$-6,013

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $15,218 (155.4% of PnL)

Top Winners

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, $7,330
Iran leadership change by March 31?$3,972
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?$3,915
US forces enter Iran by March 31?$3,830
Iran leadership change by April 30?$2,735
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 20$2,624
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?$2,533
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$858
Iran leadership change by May 31?$707
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April $625

Top Losers

Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?$-12,666
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?$-6,670
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping$-4,698
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?$-19

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.052
Sortino
0.034
HHI
607
Moderate
EV per $1
$2.058
Kelly %
30.7%
Half-Kelly
15.4%
Top-1 market
10.1%
Top-5 markets
44.5%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
3.6
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.4
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
8:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.9m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.4h
between trades
Night Trading
13%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.29
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.5

Bot Detection

#6
15
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 174s — typical for humanSize CV 2.29 — diverse, typical for human13% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.97 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 8:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
5.8
Active DCA
<=1
16 entries
<=2
22 entries
<=5
28 entries
<=10
34 entries
<=20
38 entries
<=50
41 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)10.1%
Mid (20-55c)5.5%
High (>55c)84.5%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 22.1%

Other$9,794

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.9
Events covered
22

Single bracket

<=1
14 brackets
<=2
16 brackets
<=3
20 brackets
<=4
20 brackets
<=5
21 brackets
<=8
22 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
3/7/2026, 10:34:47 PM13 trades$1,21820 min
3/7/2026, 11:04:21 PM9 trades$1,1768 min
3/8/2026, 12:03:41 AM1 trades$9990 min
3/8/2026, 3:54:39 PM2 trades$1652 min
3/8/2026, 4:05:57 PM1 trades$50 min
3/8/2026, 4:12:47 PM1 trades$10 min
3/8/2026, 7:48:11 PM2 trades$1111 min
3/8/2026, 9:42:09 PM1 trades$5100 min
3/8/2026, 10:24:31 PM1 trades$7200 min
3/9/2026, 7:53:53 AM1 trades$2,8970 min
3/9/2026, 8:20:39 AM1 trades$4060 min
3/9/2026, 8:28:11 AM1 trades$4000 min
3/9/2026, 8:40:39 AM5 trades$3,4425 min
3/9/2026, 8:52:07 AM3 trades$1,5214 min
3/9/2026, 9:05:25 AM1 trades$4620 min
3/9/2026, 4:12:43 PM1 trades$5260 min
3/9/2026, 4:26:49 PM1 trades$1,4450 min
3/10/2026, 12:38:49 AM1 trades$2570 min
3/10/2026, 7:07:35 AM4 trades$8188 min
3/10/2026, 7:20:49 AM3 trades$9185 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
04-07
04-25
05-13
05-22
06-15
06-30

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
36.5% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 5.8/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.9 br/event