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@Troubled-Need

#4,22594

0x7368675d907a8dd84b7fe53f86bfbe76e04b8b3b

74d· 30 markets · 329 tradesVol: $468,4652026-05-14T14:19
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

94
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 93%20/20
Profit Factor 284.14x15/15
Sharpe 0.57211/15
Sortino 2150926.90310/10
EV $+2.06410/10
HHI 7679/10
Profit Days 100%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Troubled-Need is a highly active and successful trader on Polymarket, ranked #4225 globally with a net profit of $32,263.94 over 329 trades spanning 30 markets. With a substantial total volume of $468,465 and consistent activity over 365 days, Troubled-Need maintains an elite Smart Score of 94/100. Their portfolio value stands at $18,673.39, reflecting steady equity growth and a maximum drawdown duration of zero, indicating strong capital preservation.

The trading style of Troubled-Need is characterized by a high win rate of 95.8% and an exceptionally high profit factor of 1494.89, suggesting a low-risk, precise approach. They tend to avoid weather markets entirely and engage in a mix of manual trading strategies, as indicated by a low bot score of 15/100. Troubled-Need uses a disciplined timing pattern, supported by badges like Sniper and DCA Master, and employs a 39% sell rate, balancing entry and exit points for consistent gains.

Key strengths of Troubled-Need include a strong track record of profitability, a disciplined risk profile, and an upward equity trend. However, the relatively modest Sharpe ratio of 0.57 and reliance on manual trading may expose them to occasional human error or market volatility. Nonetheless, Troubled-Need’s elite status and consistent performance make them a noteworthy trader within the Polymarket community.

Badges

6
Sniper
Win Rate 93%
Profitable
PnL $+32,264
DCA Master
avg 6.7 entries/market
Win Streak
23 wins in a row
Whale
$186,047
Consistent
15/15 days

Categories

6
🏛️ POLITICS#1,445$29,761Vol: $366,367
💰 FINANCE#71,811$4Vol: $48,705
📈 ECONOMICS#1,400$2,466Vol: $38,639
🎭 CULTURE#735,445$-95Vol: $10,000
CRYPTO#72,484$126Vol: $4,545
💻 TECH#30,846$2Vol: $209

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$32,264
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$468,465
Total Redeem
$16,218
Portfolio
$18,673
Predictions
30
total markets
Trades
202B / 127S
Daily Volume
$510
Account Age
74d
since Mar 7, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$27
Vol: $0
Week
$768
Vol: $36,087
Month
$4,339
Vol: $137,425
All Time
$32,264
Vol: $468,465

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
93%
14W / 1L events
Realized PnL
$29,223
Win Rate
96%
23W / 1L
Profit Factor
1494.89x
Avg Win
$1,234
Avg Loss
$-19

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $15,218 (53.7% of PnL)

Top Winners

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, $7,330
Iran leadership change by March 31?$3,972
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?$3,915
US forces enter Iran by March 31?$3,830
Iran leadership change by April 30?$2,735
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?$2,533
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April $625
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?$598
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?$522
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the$473

Top Losers

Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?$-19

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.572
Sortino
inf
HHI
767
Moderate
EV per $1
$2.064
Kelly %
95.5%
Half-Kelly
47.8%
Top-1 market
12%
Top-5 markets
52.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
5.0
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.5
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
8:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.6m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.1h
between trades
Night Trading
11%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.40
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.5

Bot Detection

#6
15
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 158s — typical for humanSize CV 2.40 — diverse, typical for human11% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.98 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 8:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
6.7
Active DCA
<=1
11 entries
<=2
15 entries
<=5
18 entries
<=10
24 entries
<=20
27 entries
<=50
30 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)1%
Mid (20-55c)5.4%
High (>55c)93.6%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 10.3%

Other$28,352

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
2
Events covered
15

Moderate coverage

<=1
9 brackets
<=2
11 brackets
<=3
13 brackets
<=4
13 brackets
<=5
14 brackets
<=8
15 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
3/7/2026, 10:34:47 PM13 trades$1,21820 min
3/7/2026, 11:04:21 PM9 trades$1,1768 min
3/8/2026, 12:03:41 AM1 trades$9990 min
3/8/2026, 3:54:39 PM2 trades$1652 min
3/8/2026, 4:05:57 PM1 trades$50 min
3/8/2026, 4:12:47 PM1 trades$10 min
3/8/2026, 7:48:11 PM2 trades$1111 min
3/8/2026, 9:42:09 PM1 trades$5100 min
3/8/2026, 10:24:31 PM1 trades$7200 min
3/9/2026, 7:53:53 AM1 trades$2,8970 min
3/9/2026, 8:20:39 AM1 trades$4060 min
3/9/2026, 8:28:11 AM1 trades$4000 min
3/9/2026, 8:40:39 AM5 trades$3,4425 min
3/9/2026, 8:52:07 AM3 trades$1,5214 min
3/9/2026, 9:05:25 AM1 trades$4620 min
3/9/2026, 4:12:43 PM1 trades$5260 min
3/9/2026, 4:26:49 PM1 trades$1,4450 min
3/10/2026, 12:38:49 AM1 trades$2570 min
3/10/2026, 7:07:35 AM4 trades$8188 min
3/10/2026, 7:20:49 AM3 trades$9185 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
03-31
04-18
04-25
04-30
05-15
05-31
12-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
38.6% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 6.7/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 2 br/event