Polydata

@True-Grandparent

#9549

0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b

197d· 397 markets · 11219 tradesVol: $43,897,9782026-07-03T07:45
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

49
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 42%6/20
Profit Factor 1.46x8/15
Sharpe 0.1182/15
Sortino 0.4444/10
EV $+0.47710/10
HHI 26210/10
Profit Days 39%2/10
DD/Peak 39%6/10

Summary

True-Grandparent is a highly active trader on Polymarket, ranking #95 globally with a net profit and loss of approximately $1.53 million. Over 426 days, they have executed 11,219 trades across 296 markets, accumulating a total volume nearing $44 million. Their portfolio value stands at nearly $494,000, reflecting consistent engagement and profitability. The trader’s smart score is average at 49/100, supported by a profit factor of 4.47 and a win rate of 85.2%, indicating strong overall performance.

This trader favors a diversified approach, participating in a broad range of markets without focusing on weather-related events. True-Grandparent exhibits a semi-automated trading style, as shown by a bot score of 65/100, blending both manual and algorithmic strategies. Their risk profile appears moderate, demonstrated by a low maximum drawdown duration and a conservative sell percentage of 4%, suggesting a preference for holding positions and averaging down when necessary. The upward equity trend reinforces a steady, disciplined timing pattern.

True-Grandparent’s key strengths include high profitability, consistent winning trades, and disciplined risk management evidenced by their diamond hands and DCA Master badges. However, their relatively low Sharpe ratio of 0.12 points to limited risk-adjusted returns, which may indicate exposure to volatility or inconsistent returns relative to risk taken. Overall, True-Grandparent’s methodical style and strong track record position them well within Polymarket’s competitive landscape, though ongoing monitoring of drawdowns and volatility is advisable.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

8
Profitable
PnL $+1,531,913
Lottery Player
44% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
90% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
4% sell
DCA Master
avg 36.6 entries/market
Win Streak
17 wins in a row
Whale
$5,146,605
High Roller
$12,081/day

Categories

8
🏛️ POLITICS#17$2,184,818Vol: $34,212,280
SPORTS#1,791,692$-442,919Vol: $5,026,019
📈 ECONOMICS#668,403$-309,495Vol: $3,785,436
CRYPTO#464$74,043Vol: $708,211
📢 MENTIONS#103$18,679Vol: $129,799
💰 FINANCE#1,208$4,116Vol: $28,346
🎭 CULTURE#2,297$2,975Vol: $7,116
💻 TECH#243,198$-304Vol: $771

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$1,531,913
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$43,897,978
Total Redeem
$3,085,195
Portfolio
$493,729
Predictions
397
total markets
Trades
10750B / 469S
Daily Volume
$12,081
Account Age
197d
since Dec 20, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$-1,486
Vol: $5
Week
$1,492
Vol: $343,668
Month
$-9,094
Vol: $54,760
All Time
$1,531,913
Vol: $43,897,978

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
44%
102W / 132L events
Realized PnL
$4,261,405
Win Rate
85%
46W / 8L
Profit Factor
4.47x
Avg Win
$41,857
Avg Loss
$-53,839

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $1,416,601 (94.8% of PnL)

Top Winners

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$1,200,272
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?$119,451
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$96,878
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$89,002
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$75,101
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?$46,989
Thunder vs. Spurs$40,498
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$34,783
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?$26,170
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the$23,687

Top Losers

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$-342,065
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?$-24,678
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?$-24,115
Spurs vs. Thunder$-14,178
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?$-8,746
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$-7,641
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?$-6,655
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?$-2,635

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.118
Sortino
0.444
HHI
262
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.477
Kelly %
76.6%
Half-Kelly
38.3%
Top-1 market
8%
Top-5 markets
28.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
85.5
Very active
Markets / Day
2.3
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
2:00 UTC
Median Gap
54s
between trades
Avg Gap
13.9m
between trades
Night Trading
27%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
6.36
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.7

Bot Detection

#6
65
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 54s — typical for humanSize CV 6.36 — diverse, typical for human27% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.06 — human randomness86 trades/day — mass trading450 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 2:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
36.6
Heavy DCA
<=1
97 entries
<=2
136 entries
<=5
168 entries
<=10
190 entries
<=20
209 entries
<=50
238 entries
>50
56 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)43.6%
Mid (20-55c)48.1%
High (>55c)8.2%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 74.7%

Other$1,473,111
Los Angeles$21,600
Warsh$0
Houston$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.6
Events covered
184

Single bracket

<=1
136 brackets
<=2
163 brackets
<=3
173 brackets
<=4
175 brackets
<=5
177 brackets
<=8
181 brackets
>8
3 brackets

Sessions

#12
2/22/2026, 3:44:56 AM2 trades$8,1970 min
2/22/2026, 3:58:18 AM1 trades$280 min
2/22/2026, 4:14:02 AM1 trades$10 min
2/22/2026, 4:38:40 AM1 trades$1080 min
2/22/2026, 4:51:58 AM2 trades$2982 min
2/22/2026, 5:05:22 AM1 trades$100 min
2/22/2026, 5:18:44 AM1 trades$120 min
2/22/2026, 5:25:28 AM1 trades$120 min
2/22/2026, 5:36:28 AM1 trades$2,1340 min
2/22/2026, 12:54:26 PM1 trades$37,1700 min
2/22/2026, 11:24:22 PM14 trades$5958 min
2/24/2026, 7:21:00 PM1 trades$7660 min
2/24/2026, 8:08:58 PM2 trades$7722 min
2/24/2026, 8:28:46 PM2 trades$9041 min
2/24/2026, 8:37:52 PM1 trades$6,9440 min
2/25/2026, 2:48:40 AM2 trades$20 min
2/25/2026, 2:55:40 AM14 trades$3,1985 min
2/25/2026, 3:35:56 PM2 trades$1,9710 min
2/25/2026, 4:32:12 PM6 trades$473 min
2/25/2026, 4:43:30 PM3 trades$3725 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
03-22
04-23
05-13
05-28
06-26
11-01

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
4.2% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 36.6/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.6 br/event