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@True-Grandparent

#10452

0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b

152d· 303 markets · 10011 tradesVol: $31,713,8392026-05-17T15:25
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

52
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 44%7/20
Profit Factor 1.53x9/15
Sharpe 0.1783/15
Sortino 0.3814/10
EV $+0.50610/10
HHI 23910/10
Profit Days 45%4/10
DD/Peak 45%5/10

Summary

True-Grandparent is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, holding the rank of #104 on the global PnL leaderboard. With over 10,000 trades executed across 241 markets, they have accumulated a net profit of roughly $1.08 million from a total trading volume exceeding $31 million. Their portfolio value stands at about $721,000 after 426 days of activity, reflecting consistent engagement and a steady upward equity trend.

The trading style of True-Grandparent is characterized by a balanced approach with an average risk profile, evident from their 48.8% win rate and a profit factor of 1.42. They tend to hold positions for varying durations, as indicated by a max drawdown duration of zero days, suggesting disciplined risk management. Their low sell percentage of 9% alongside badges such as "Diamond Hands" and "DCA Master" imply a preference for dollar-cost averaging and holding through volatility rather than frequent flipping. True-Grandparent does not engage in weather markets, focusing instead on other market types within Polymarket.

Key strengths of True-Grandparent include a solid net PnL, a semi-automated trading style (Bot Score 60/100), and an upward equity trend, which indicate adaptability and resilience. However, their Sharpe ratio of 0.18 points to relatively low risk-adjusted returns, and a win rate below 50% suggests that some positions are losing trades, requiring careful capital allocation. Overall, True-Grandparent’s disciplined, long-term approach offers steady growth but may face challenges in highly volatile market conditions.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

8
Profitable
PnL $+1,078,839
Lottery Player
45% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
86% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
9% sell
DCA Master
avg 38.1 entries/market
Win Streak
9 wins in a row
Whale
$5,095,424
High Roller
$11,961/day

Categories

7
🏛️ POLITICS#24$1,368,253Vol: $25,027,277
SPORTS#1,650,462$-155,699Vol: $3,700,843
📈 ECONOMICS#640,621$-157,456Vol: $2,803,454
📢 MENTIONS#99$18,679Vol: $129,799
CRYPTO#17,538$2,193Vol: $41,367
🎭 CULTURE#2,192$2,975Vol: $7,116
💰 FINANCE#600,681$-1,171Vol: $4,512

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$1,078,839
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$31,713,839
Total Redeem
$1,848,323
Portfolio
$721,278
Predictions
303
total markets
Trades
9106B / 905S
Daily Volume
$11,961
Account Age
152d
since Dec 20, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$7,211
Vol: $15,521
Week
$-111,960
Vol: $15,521
Month
$658,201
Vol: $5,549,020
All Time
$1,078,839
Vol: $31,713,839

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
45%
85W / 102L events
Realized PnL
$2,506,054
Win Rate
49%
21W / 22L
Profit Factor
1.42x
Avg Win
$57,895
Avg Loss
$-38,963

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $757,786 (211.3% of PnL)

Top Winners

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?$315,524
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?$268,695
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?$173,567
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?$138,169
Timberwolves vs. Spurs$66,232
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?$63,531
Spurs vs. Timberwolves$51,563
Spread: Pistons (-9.5)$26,479
Spread: Thunder (-15.5)$20,415
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves$19,712

Top Losers

Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?$-200,438
US forces enter Iran by April 30?$-175,910
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?$-79,704
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$-69,050
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?$-46,648
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?$-43,158
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?$-39,841
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?$-36,571
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April $-33,440
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?$-31,748

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.178
Sortino
0.381
HHI
239
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.506
Kelly %
30.7%
Half-Kelly
15.4%
Top-1 market
7.9%
Top-5 markets
24.2%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
118.2
Very active
Markets / Day
2.8
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
18:00 UTC
Median Gap
42s
between trades
Avg Gap
10.6m
between trades
Night Trading
24%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
7.20
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.9

Bot Detection

#6
60
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 42s — typical for humanSize CV 7.20 — diverse, typical for human24% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.06 — human randomness118 trades/day — automation344 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 18:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
38.1
Heavy DCA
<=1
83 entries
<=2
106 entries
<=5
134 entries
<=10
152 entries
<=20
167 entries
<=50
195 entries
>50
44 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)45.3%
Mid (20-55c)44%
High (>55c)10.7%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 62.3%

Other$358,614
Warsh$0
Houston$0
Los Angeles$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.5
Events covered
157

Single bracket

<=1
118 brackets
<=2
142 brackets
<=3
146 brackets
<=4
151 brackets
<=5
152 brackets
<=8
156 brackets
>8
1 brackets

Sessions

#12
2/21/2026, 10:03:38 PM2 trades$190 min
2/22/2026, 3:44:56 AM2 trades$8,1970 min
2/22/2026, 3:58:18 AM1 trades$280 min
2/22/2026, 4:14:02 AM1 trades$10 min
2/22/2026, 4:38:40 AM1 trades$1080 min
2/22/2026, 4:51:58 AM2 trades$2982 min
2/22/2026, 5:05:22 AM1 trades$100 min
2/22/2026, 5:18:44 AM1 trades$120 min
2/22/2026, 5:25:28 AM1 trades$120 min
2/22/2026, 5:36:28 AM1 trades$2,1340 min
2/22/2026, 12:54:26 PM1 trades$37,1700 min
2/22/2026, 11:24:22 PM14 trades$5958 min
2/24/2026, 7:21:00 PM1 trades$7660 min
2/24/2026, 8:08:58 PM2 trades$7722 min
2/24/2026, 8:28:46 PM2 trades$9041 min
2/24/2026, 8:37:52 PM1 trades$6,9440 min
2/25/2026, 2:48:40 AM2 trades$20 min
2/25/2026, 2:55:40 AM14 trades$3,1985 min
2/25/2026, 3:35:56 PM2 trades$1,9710 min
2/25/2026, 4:32:12 PM6 trades$473 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
03-17
04-14
04-25
05-11
06-02
12-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
9% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 38.1/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.5 br/event