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@True-Grandparent

#8850

0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b

195d· 380 markets · 10445 tradesVol: $43,443,8012026-06-24T23:48
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

50
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 41%5/20
Profit Factor 1.49x9/15
Sharpe 0.1272/15
Sortino 0.4885/10
EV $+0.48610/10
HHI 26710/10
Profit Days 38%2/10
DD/Peak 38%6/10

Summary

True-Grandparent is a highly active trader on Polymarket, holding the #88 position on the global PnL leaderboard with a net profit of over $1.58 million. With more than 10,400 trades executed across 271 markets and a total volume exceeding $43 million, this trader demonstrates consistent engagement over 426 days. Their portfolio value currently stands at approximately $658,000, supported by an average Smart Score of 50 and a semi-automated trading style indicated by a Bot Score of 65.

This trader shows a preference for diverse markets, likely leveraging a mix of manual and bot-driven strategies for efficiency. True-Grandparent exhibits a moderate risk profile, underscored by a solid 77.5% win rate and a profit factor above 3. Their timing appears disciplined with minimal drawdowns and a strong inclination toward holding positions, as suggested by a low sell percentage of 5% and badges like Diamond Hands and DCA Master. They avoid weather markets entirely, favoring more predictable or liquid opportunities.

True-Grandparent’s strengths include consistent profitability, a high volume of trades, and an upward equity trend, signaling robust performance on Polymarket. However, the relatively low Sharpe Ratio of 0.13 indicates limited risk-adjusted returns, which may point to volatility or periods of stagnation. The semi-bot trading approach balances automation with manual oversight, but reliance on automated strategies can carry risks if market conditions shift abruptly. Overall, True-Grandparent’s record displays resilience and adaptability with some exposure to market fluctuations.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

8
Profitable
PnL $+1,582,814
Lottery Player
43% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
89% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
5% sell
DCA Master
avg 37.0 entries/market
Win Streak
14 wins in a row
Whale
$5,223,274
High Roller
$12,261/day

Categories

7
🏛️ POLITICS#17$2,199,767Vol: $33,941,849
SPORTS#1,749,660$-443,095Vol: $4,879,090
📈 ECONOMICS#665,502$-267,782Vol: $3,754,143
CRYPTO#460$74,043Vol: $708,211
📢 MENTIONS#103$18,679Vol: $129,799
💰 FINANCE#632,978$-1,773Vol: $23,593
🎭 CULTURE#2,267$2,975Vol: $7,116

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$1,582,814
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$43,443,801
Total Redeem
$2,880,359
Portfolio
$657,787
Predictions
380
total markets
Trades
9940B / 505S
Daily Volume
$12,261
Account Age
195d
since Dec 20, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$-35,865
Vol: $233,845
Week
$-55,602
Vol: $549,998
Month
$1,239,019
Vol: $4,418,866
All Time
$1,582,814
Vol: $43,443,801

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
42%
94W / 129L events
Realized PnL
$4,193,990
Win Rate
78%
38W / 11L
Profit Factor
3.14x
Avg Win
$47,015
Avg Loss
$-51,694

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $1,416,601 (116.3% of PnL)

Top Winners

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$1,200,272
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?$119,451
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$96,878
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$75,101
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?$46,989
Thunder vs. Spurs$40,498
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$34,783
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the$23,687
Pistons vs. Cavaliers$17,061
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?$16,935

Top Losers

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$-342,065
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?$-79,076
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?$-36,571
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?$-24,678
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?$-24,115
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?$-16,354
Spurs vs. Thunder$-14,178
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?$-13,560
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?$-8,746
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?$-6,655

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.127
Sortino
0.488
HHI
267
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.486
Kelly %
66.9%
Half-Kelly
33.5%
Top-1 market
7.8%
Top-5 markets
29.1%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
84.9
Very active
Markets / Day
2.2
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
2:00 UTC
Median Gap
54s
between trades
Avg Gap
13.9m
between trades
Night Trading
26%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
6.45
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.7

Bot Detection

#6
65
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 54s — typical for humanSize CV 6.45 — diverse, typical for human26% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.05 — human randomness85 trades/day — mass trading433 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 2:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
37
Heavy DCA
<=1
84 entries
<=2
119 entries
<=5
150 entries
<=10
169 entries
<=20
190 entries
<=50
220 entries
>50
49 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)43.1%
Mid (20-55c)48.9%
High (>55c)7.9%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 77.2%

Other$1,217,934
Warsh$0
Houston$0
Los Angeles$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.6
Events covered
171

Single bracket

<=1
129 brackets
<=2
151 brackets
<=3
161 brackets
<=4
163 brackets
<=5
165 brackets
<=8
168 brackets
>8
3 brackets

Sessions

#12
2/21/2026, 10:04:04 PM1 trades$90 min
2/22/2026, 3:44:56 AM2 trades$8,1970 min
2/22/2026, 3:58:18 AM1 trades$280 min
2/22/2026, 4:14:02 AM1 trades$10 min
2/22/2026, 4:38:40 AM1 trades$1080 min
2/22/2026, 4:51:58 AM2 trades$2982 min
2/22/2026, 5:05:22 AM1 trades$100 min
2/22/2026, 5:18:44 AM1 trades$120 min
2/22/2026, 5:25:28 AM1 trades$120 min
2/22/2026, 5:36:28 AM1 trades$2,1340 min
2/22/2026, 12:54:26 PM1 trades$37,1700 min
2/22/2026, 11:24:22 PM14 trades$5958 min
2/24/2026, 7:21:00 PM1 trades$7660 min
2/24/2026, 8:08:58 PM2 trades$7722 min
2/24/2026, 8:28:46 PM2 trades$9041 min
2/24/2026, 8:37:52 PM1 trades$6,9440 min
2/25/2026, 2:48:40 AM2 trades$20 min
2/25/2026, 2:55:40 AM14 trades$3,1985 min
2/25/2026, 3:35:56 PM2 trades$1,9710 min
2/25/2026, 4:32:12 PM6 trades$473 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
03-21
04-21
05-10
05-24
06-19
10-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
4.8% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 37/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.6 br/event