Polydata
Trusting-Bungalow

@Trusting-Bungalow

#36858

0xc6dd722558dbfbd8fa780efcbe819ed8c6604b9f

418d· 723 markets · 18210 tradesVol: $61,179,6442026-07-03T08:51
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

58
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 95%20/20
Profit Factor 64.55x15/15
EV $+3.52610/10
HHI 6869/10
Profit Days 46%4/10
DD/Peak 99416%0/10

Summary

Trusting-Bungalow is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, ranked #368 on the global PnL leaderboard with a net profit of $506,922.55 over 577 days. The trader has executed 18,210 trades across 271 markets, generating a total volume exceeding $61 million. Despite a sizeable portfolio value of $427,629.22, Trusting-Bungalow’s Sharpe ratio is slightly negative at -0.17, indicating volatility in returns. Their Smart Score of 58/100 suggests a good overall performance, while a Bot Score of 45/100 reflects a mix of automated and manual trading.

Trusting-Bungalow favors a diversified approach, engaging in a broad set of markets without exposure to weather-related events. Their win rate of 59.5% and a profit factor of 0.10 imply frequent small gains but a lower risk-to-reward ratio. The trader employs a relatively low sell percentage of 31%, indicating a tendency to hold positions rather than quick flips. Timing appears consistent over a long horizon, with no extended drawdown periods, and the use of DCA (dollar-cost averaging) suggests a risk-moderate style blending automation and discretion.

Key strengths for Trusting-Bungalow include a solid win streak and high trade volume, which demonstrate experience and persistence. However, the downward equity trend and negative Sharpe ratio highlight potential risks related to volatility and diminishing returns. The semi-automated strategy might limit adaptability in rapidly shifting markets. Overall, Trusting-Bungalow shows steady, if cautious, trading on Polymarket but faces challenges in maintaining consistent profitability.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

6
Sniper
Win Rate 95%
Profitable
PnL $+506,923
DCA Master
avg 46.5 entries/market
Win Streak
26 wins in a row
Whale
$23,473,623
High Roller
$40,682/day

Categories

9
🏛️ POLITICS#261$186,396Vol: $37,373,800
🎭 CULTURE#803,219$-4,643Vol: $6,586,329
📈 ECONOMICS#47$116,449Vol: $5,873,827
💻 TECH#173$10,475Vol: $4,183,105
💰 FINANCE#36$85,558Vol: $3,246,855
CRYPTO#484$72,423Vol: $2,425,288
SPORTS#2,646$19,227Vol: $539,337
📢 MENTIONS#173$10,634Vol: $465,565
🌤️ WEATHER#627$2,876Vol: $390,587

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$506,923
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$61,179,644
Total Redeem
$1,281,337
Portfolio
$427,629
Predictions
723
total markets
Trades
12503B / 5707S
Daily Volume
$40,682
Account Age
418d
since May 12, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$131
Vol: $0
Week
$146
Vol: $726,668
Month
$-4,574
Vol: $290,672
All Time
$506,923
Vol: $61,179,644

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
94%
188W / 12L events
Realized PnL
$1,202,633
Win Rate
60%
147W / 100L
Profit Factor
0.1x
Avg Win
$7,109
Avg Loss
$-101,153

Top Winners

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$108,848
US government shutdown Saturday?$96,800
US forces enter Iran by April 30?$83,788
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?$53,174
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeti$52,541
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$46,091
Claude 4.8 released by May 31?$36,527
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July?$31,310
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$27,135
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?$22,682

Top Losers

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?$-5,636,326
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?$-456,699
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?$-431,430
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?$-279,871
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?$-234,341
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?$-228,865
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?$-175,920
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?$-163,907
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?$-156,217
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting$-127,184

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.169
Sortino
-0.125
HHI
686
Moderate
EV per $1
$3.526
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
24%
Top-5 markets
37.5%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
44.4
Active
Markets / Day
0.7
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
20:00 UTC
Median Gap
52s
between trades
Avg Gap
26.7m
between trades
Night Trading
26%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
5.57
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
3 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.9

Bot Detection

#6
45
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
MEDIUM
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 52s — typical for humanSize CV 5.56 — diverse, typical for human26% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.10 — human randomness44 trades/day — suspiciously high

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 20:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
46.5
Heavy DCA
<=1
24 entries
<=2
36 entries
<=5
65 entries
<=10
95 entries
<=20
145 entries
<=50
201 entries
>50
68 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)3%
Mid (20-55c)9.2%
High (>55c)87.8%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 59.1%

Los Angeles$17,945
Lebanon$1,632
New York City$-136,518
Other$-8,953,288

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.4
Events covered
199

Single bracket

<=1
156 brackets
<=2
183 brackets
<=3
194 brackets
<=4
195 brackets
<=5
198 brackets
<=8
198 brackets
>8
1 brackets

Sessions

#12
5/18/2025, 6:54:11 PM3 trades$9,7000 min
5/18/2025, 7:11:49 PM20 trades$28,1394 min
5/18/2025, 7:28:58 PM1 trades$3,8400 min
5/18/2025, 8:09:16 PM1 trades$9,0000 min
5/18/2025, 9:20:03 PM1 trades$5630 min
5/18/2025, 9:36:31 PM20 trades$21,0809 min
5/18/2025, 10:02:51 PM1 trades$12,8390 min
5/18/2025, 10:14:21 PM1 trades$9,9400 min
5/18/2025, 11:16:13 PM3 trades$9,9805 min
5/18/2025, 11:58:47 PM1 trades$19,9800 min
6/11/2025, 7:39:36 PM2 trades$1,6361 min
6/11/2025, 9:21:00 PM6 trades$1,4973 min
6/12/2025, 4:43:37 AM5 trades$8024 min
6/12/2025, 6:52:33 PM1 trades$1660 min
6/12/2025, 6:59:21 PM2 trades$7072 min
6/12/2025, 9:55:36 PM2 trades$1,4511 min
6/12/2025, 10:17:44 PM2 trades$2492 min
6/12/2025, 11:43:57 PM13 trades$10,57115 min
6/13/2025, 12:23:15 AM8 trades$25,55810 min
6/13/2025, 1:02:49 AM5 trades$27,6412 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
10-25
12-26
02-28
04-30
06-07
07-15

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
31.3% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 46.5/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.4 br/event