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Trusting-Bungalow

@Trusting-Bungalow

#37795

0xc6dd722558dbfbd8fa780efcbe819ed8c6604b9f

416d· 706 markets · 18232 tradesVol: $60,296,1492026-06-21T05:33
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

95
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 94%20/20
Profit Factor 29.30x15/15
Sharpe 0.60211/15
Sortino 6.66010/10
EV $+2.32210/10
HHI 6929/10
Profit Days 96%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Trusting-Bungalow is an experienced and highly active trader on Polymarket, ranked #377 on the global profit and loss leaderboard. Over 577 days, they have executed 18,232 trades across 266 markets, generating a net PnL of $462,080.80 on a total volume exceeding $60 million. Their portfolio value is currently $480,890.98, supported by an elite Smart Score of 95 out of 100, indicating consistent performance and strong market insight.

The trader shows a preference for a diversified range of markets, avoiding weather-related ones entirely. Trusting-Bungalow’s strategy involves a moderate selling frequency of 31%, suggesting a balance between holding and timely exiting positions. With a win rate of 55.4% and a Sharpe Ratio of 0.60, their risk profile appears moderate, aiming for steady growth rather than high volatility gains. The combination of a profit factor of 0.10 and an upward equity trend implies a methodical approach, often employing dollar-cost averaging as indicated by their “DCA Master” badge.

Trusting-Bungalow's key strengths lie in their disciplined trade execution and resilience, demonstrated by a zero-day max drawdown duration and a strong portfolio growth trajectory. However, the relatively low profit factor and a semi-automated trading style (Bot Score 45/100) suggest potential vulnerability to market swings or execution inefficiencies. Overall, their consistent upward trend and elite Smart Score make them a notable participant on Polymarket, though monitoring risk exposure remains important.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

8
Sniper
Win Rate 94%
Profitable
PnL $+462,081
DCA Master
avg 47.2 entries/market
Win Streak
26 wins in a row
Whale
$23,354,007
Consistent
82/85 days
High Roller
$40,475/day
Cool Head
DD 0%

Categories

9
🏛️ POLITICS#291$172,325Vol: $37,288,153
🎭 CULTURE#3,706$1,503Vol: $6,299,468
📈 ECONOMICS#70$87,674Vol: $5,829,303
💻 TECH#204$8,502Vol: $4,166,192
💰 FINANCE#38$79,825Vol: $3,187,574
CRYPTO#469$72,430Vol: $2,425,288
📢 MENTIONS#174$10,634Vol: $465,565
🌤️ WEATHER#605$2,824Vol: $390,318
SPORTS#2,442$18,837Vol: $149,337

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$462,081
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$60,296,149
Total Redeem
$977,400
Portfolio
$480,891
Predictions
706
total markets
Trades
12508B / 5724S
Daily Volume
$40,475
Account Age
416d
since May 12, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$-7,416
Vol: $10,000
Week
$65,726
Vol: $10,000
Month
$152,328
Vol: $4,380,644
All Time
$462,081
Vol: $60,296,149

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
94%
190W / 12L events
Realized PnL
$997,933
Win Rate
55%
133W / 107L
Profit Factor
0.1x
Avg Win
$7,442
Avg Loss
$-93,980

Top Winners

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$108,848
US government shutdown Saturday?$96,800
US forces enter Iran by April 30?$83,788
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?$53,174
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeti$52,541
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$46,091
Claude 4.8 released by May 31?$36,527
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July?$31,310
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$27,135
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?$22,682

Top Losers

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?$-5,636,326
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?$-456,699
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?$-431,430
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?$-280,033
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?$-234,341
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?$-228,865
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?$-175,920
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?$-163,907
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?$-156,217
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting$-127,184

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.602
Sortino
6.660
HHI
692
Moderate
EV per $1
$2.322
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
24.1%
Top-5 markets
37.7%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
45.8
Active
Markets / Day
0.7
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
20:00 UTC
Median Gap
54s
between trades
Avg Gap
25.8m
between trades
Night Trading
26%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
5.59
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.9

Bot Detection

#6
45
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
MEDIUM
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 54s — typical for humanSize CV 5.59 — diverse, typical for human26% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.10 — human randomness46 trades/day — suspiciously high

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 20:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
47.2
Heavy DCA
<=1
18 entries
<=2
32 entries
<=5
56 entries
<=10
89 entries
<=20
139 entries
<=50
198 entries
>50
67 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)2.3%
Mid (20-55c)9.9%
High (>55c)87.8%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 58.7%

Los Angeles$5,500
Lebanon$1,632
Taipei$-5,939
New York City$-131,725
Other$-8,935,518

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.4
Events covered
196

Single bracket

<=1
155 brackets
<=2
181 brackets
<=3
191 brackets
<=4
192 brackets
<=5
195 brackets
<=8
195 brackets
>8
1 brackets

Sessions

#12
5/18/2025, 6:54:11 PM3 trades$9,7000 min
5/18/2025, 7:11:49 PM20 trades$28,1394 min
5/18/2025, 7:28:58 PM1 trades$3,8400 min
5/18/2025, 8:09:16 PM1 trades$9,0000 min
5/18/2025, 9:20:03 PM1 trades$5630 min
5/18/2025, 9:36:31 PM20 trades$21,0809 min
5/18/2025, 10:02:51 PM1 trades$12,8390 min
5/18/2025, 10:14:21 PM1 trades$9,9400 min
5/18/2025, 11:16:13 PM3 trades$9,9805 min
5/18/2025, 11:58:47 PM1 trades$19,9800 min
6/14/2025, 6:11:40 AM2 trades$4080 min
6/14/2025, 6:32:35 AM1 trades$220 min
6/14/2025, 7:02:39 AM3 trades$440 min
6/14/2025, 7:38:30 AM1 trades$400 min
6/19/2025, 10:53:18 PM6 trades$10,07811 min
6/19/2025, 11:12:16 PM1 trades$30 min
6/19/2025, 11:27:52 PM2 trades$3,0391 min
6/19/2025, 11:56:08 PM6 trades$1,3446 min
6/20/2025, 12:13:54 AM6 trades$1,1604 min
6/20/2025, 12:23:44 AM10 trades$3,02312 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
10-01
12-10
01-23
04-12
05-31
12-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
31.4% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 47.2/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.4 br/event