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@Unfortunate-Pray

#1,60392

0xc9dcc3d90ad3e34fe4132eb8661ae728d6da9026

594d· 471 markets · 12231 tradesVol: $9,173,6492026-06-26T22:38
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

92
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 99%20/20
Profit Factor 638.62x15/15
Sharpe 0.3767/15
Sortino 2990694.56610/10
EV $+0.70810/10
HHI 14010/10
Profit Days 98%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Unfortunate-Pray is an active trader on Polymarket with a strong presence, holding a global PnL rank of #1603 and an elite Smart Score of 92/100. Over 755 days, they have executed 12,231 trades across 253 markets, generating a net profit of $106,780.18 on a total volume exceeding $9 million. Their portfolio value stands at $283,353.08 with an upward equity trend, indicating consistent growth.

This trader favors a diverse range of markets but shows no exposure to weather markets. With a moderate win rate of 47.0% and a profit factor of 0.10, Unfortunate-Pray appears to take calculated risks rather than high-frequency wins. Their sell percentage is 37%, suggesting a balanced approach between holding and exiting positions. The Sharpe ratio of 0.38 reflects modest risk-adjusted returns, while the zero-day max drawdown duration points to effective risk management. Timing patterns suggest a disciplined strategy, possibly involving dollar-cost averaging as indicated by their DCA Master badge.

Unfortunate-Pray’s key strengths lie in their high Smart Score, consistent upward equity trend, and ability to maintain profitability over many trades and markets. However, their relatively low profit factor and moderate Sharpe ratio highlight potential vulnerabilities in capturing high-return opportunities. The low Bot Score confirms human execution, which may limit rapid reaction but adds a layer of strategic decision-making. Overall, Unfortunate-Pray’s data suggests a steady, disciplined trader with room to optimize risk-reward outcomes.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

8
Sniper
Win Rate 99%
Profitable
PnL $+106,780
DCA Master
avg 30.3 entries/market
Win Streak
12 wins in a row
Whale
$3,860,189
Consistent
64/65 days
High Roller
$5,113/day
Cool Head
DD 0%

Categories

8
🏛️ POLITICS#442$113,941Vol: $5,484,065
CRYPTO#1,608,959$-21,321Vol: $2,736,446
🎭 CULTURE#996$7,859Vol: $338,527
💰 FINANCE#1,884$2,491Vol: $309,640
SPORTS#1,649,592$-258Vol: $106,737
📈 ECONOMICS#2,874$934Vol: $104,277
💻 TECH#571$2,848Vol: $80,816
🌤️ WEATHER#10,285$43Vol: $2,882

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$106,780
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$9,173,649
Total Redeem
$270,237
Portfolio
$283,353
Predictions
471
total markets
Trades
7674B / 4557S
Daily Volume
$5,113
Account Age
594d
since Nov 30, 2024

Periods

#2
Today
$-461
Vol: $17,959
Week
$-371
Vol: $72,647
Month
$4,036
Vol: $389,386
All Time
$106,780
Vol: $9,173,649

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
99%
199W / 3L events
Realized PnL
$185,568
Win Rate
47%
109W / 123L
Profit Factor
0.1x
Avg Win
$1,322
Avg Loss
$-11,970

Top Winners

Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?$20,572
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025?$12,160
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$12,050
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?$10,566
Netanyahu out by April 30?$6,899
Netanyahu out by March 31?$6,020
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?$4,104
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?$3,834
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July?$3,326
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?$3,312

Top Losers

Will Union win the most seats in the next German election?$-208,685
Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election?$-75,480
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April?$-72,017
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May?$-49,384
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday?$-44,802
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May?$-44,549
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by February 28?$-43,542
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? $-40,994
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026?$-36,443
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April?$-36,268

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.376
Sortino
inf
HHI
140
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.708
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
6.2%
Top-5 markets
18.1%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
21.3
Active
Markets / Day
0.4
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
21:00 UTC
Median Gap
6.7m
between trades
Avg Gap
56.6m
between trades
Night Trading
15%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.35
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.9

Bot Detection

#6
35
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 402s — typical for humanSize CV 2.35 — diverse, typical for human15% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.87 — human randomness21 trades/day — suspiciously high

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 21:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
30.3
Heavy DCA
<=1
11 entries
<=2
27 entries
<=5
57 entries
<=10
105 entries
<=20
156 entries
<=50
218 entries
>50
35 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)1.6%
Mid (20-55c)10.4%
High (>55c)88%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 12.9%

New York City$1,098
Other$-1,329,389

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.3
Events covered
194

Single bracket

<=1
168 brackets
<=2
184 brackets
<=3
187 brackets
<=4
188 brackets
<=5
190 brackets
<=8
193 brackets
>8
1 brackets

Sessions

#12
11/30/2024, 5:41:20 PM2 trades$8,0002 min
11/30/2024, 5:48:36 PM1 trades$2,0000 min
12/1/2024, 4:55:53 PM1 trades$2,8000 min
12/5/2024, 6:49:16 AM1 trades$1000 min
12/5/2024, 1:03:24 PM1 trades$1500 min
12/6/2024, 6:11:35 AM1 trades$1600 min
12/6/2024, 10:39:14 AM1 trades$1740 min
12/11/2024, 7:14:22 AM1 trades$5000 min
12/13/2024, 6:44:16 PM2 trades$4,5001 min
12/14/2024, 12:07:53 PM1 trades$5000 min
12/15/2024, 7:14:35 PM1 trades$2,0000 min
12/16/2024, 7:30:56 AM1 trades$4650 min
12/16/2024, 8:39:25 AM1 trades$9000 min
12/16/2024, 5:19:48 PM1 trades$8800 min
12/17/2024, 2:29:30 PM2 trades$1371 min
12/17/2024, 7:15:34 PM15 trades$43915 min
12/17/2024, 7:44:56 PM1 trades$360 min
12/20/2024, 2:02:46 PM1 trades$1600 min
12/20/2024, 2:09:19 PM1 trades$100 min
12/20/2024, 2:22:37 PM1 trades$1,9590 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
12-06
01-20
03-07
05-31
08-01
01-09
05-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
37.3% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 30.3/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.3 br/event