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@Unfortunate-Pray

#1,48692

0xc9dcc3d90ad3e34fe4132eb8661ae728d6da9026

536d· 455 markets · 11084 tradesVol: $8,450,3972026-05-12T21:54
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

92
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 99%20/20
Profit Factor 1036.30x15/15
Sharpe 0.3677/15
Sortino 2893429.70610/10
EV $+0.65210/10
HHI 15010/10
Profit Days 100%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Unfortunate-Pray is a highly active trader on Polymarket, ranked #1486 on the global PnL leaderboard with a net profit of $99,878.61. Over 755 days, they have executed 11,084 trades across 252 markets, accumulating a total volume exceeding $8.4 million. Their portfolio value stands at nearly $298,000, and they hold an elite Smart Score of 92 out of 100, reflecting consistent performance.

The trader’s strategy appears diversified, engaging in a broad range of markets without any exposure to weather-related predictions. Unfortunate-Pray demonstrates a balanced risk approach with a win rate just under 50% and a moderate Sharpe ratio of 0.37. Their profit factor of 0.13 suggests modest returns relative to losses, indicative of frequent trading with tight margins. They tend to hold positions for short durations, as indicated by zero days maximum drawdown duration, and their sell percentage of 37% points to a strategy that mixes holding and profit-taking.

Unfortunate-Pray’s strengths include an upward equity trend and multiple badges highlighting precision and profitability, such as Sniper and DCA Master. However, their relatively low profit factor and Sharpe ratio indicate potential vulnerability to market volatility and thin margins. The Bot Score suggests human-driven trading, which could offer flexibility but may also introduce emotional biases. Overall, Unfortunate-Pray combines high activity with disciplined execution, though traders should monitor the trade-off between volume and risk.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Sniper
Win Rate 99%
Profitable
PnL $+99,879
DCA Master
avg 27.7 entries/market
Win Streak
11 wins in a row
Whale
$3,478,465
Consistent
65/65 days
High Roller
$4,607/day

Categories

8
🏛️ POLITICS#416$107,350Vol: $4,847,055
CRYPTO#1,501,353$-21,321Vol: $2,736,446
🎭 CULTURE#938$7,859Vol: $338,527
💰 FINANCE#1,817$2,225Vol: $251,398
SPORTS#1,545,594$-306Vol: $110,076
💻 TECH#519$2,848Vol: $80,816
📈 ECONOMICS#2,766$890Vol: $76,277
🌤️ WEATHER#9,052$43Vol: $2,882

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$99,879
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$8,450,397
Total Redeem
$477,282
Portfolio
$297,720
Predictions
455
total markets
Trades
6992B / 4092S
Daily Volume
$4,607
Account Age
536d
since Nov 30, 2024

Periods

#2
Today
$429
Vol: $0
Week
$730
Vol: $38,920
Month
$3,040
Vol: $179,504
All Time
$99,879
Vol: $8,450,397

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
99%
202W / 3L events
Realized PnL
$179,023
Win Rate
49%
113W / 116L
Profit Factor
0.13x
Avg Win
$1,388
Avg Loss
$-10,255

Top Winners

Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?$20,572
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025?$12,160
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$12,050
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?$10,566
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026?$7,733
Netanyahu out by April 30?$6,899
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by February 28?$6,458
Netanyahu out by March 31?$6,020
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by January 31?$4,286
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?$4,104

Top Losers

Will Union win the most seats in the next German election?$-208,685
Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election?$-75,480
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April?$-72,017
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May?$-49,384
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday?$-44,802
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May?$-44,549
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? $-40,994
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April?$-36,268
US military action against Iran in April?$-29,112
Will Russia invade a NATO country in 2025?$-25,759

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.367
Sortino
inf
HHI
150
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.651
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
6.9%
Top-5 markets
18.5%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
21.0
Active
Markets / Day
0.5
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
19:00 UTC
Median Gap
6.7m
between trades
Avg Gap
57.2m
between trades
Night Trading
15%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.32
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.1

Bot Detection

#6
30
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 400s — typical for humanSize CV 2.32 — diverse, typical for human15% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.87 — human randomness21 trades/day — suspiciously high

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 19:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
27.7
Heavy DCA
<=1
13 entries
<=2
28 entries
<=5
62 entries
<=10
110 entries
<=20
158 entries
<=50
218 entries
>50
34 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)1.7%
Mid (20-55c)11.5%
High (>55c)86.8%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 14.2%

New York City$1,098
Other$-1,033,828

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.3
Events covered
195

Single bracket

<=1
168 brackets
<=2
185 brackets
<=3
188 brackets
<=4
189 brackets
<=5
192 brackets
<=8
195 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
11/30/2024, 5:43:12 PM1 trades$3,0000 min
11/30/2024, 5:48:36 PM1 trades$2,0000 min
12/1/2024, 4:55:53 PM1 trades$2,8000 min
12/5/2024, 6:49:16 AM1 trades$1000 min
12/5/2024, 1:03:24 PM1 trades$1500 min
12/6/2024, 6:11:35 AM1 trades$1600 min
12/6/2024, 10:39:14 AM1 trades$1740 min
12/11/2024, 7:14:22 AM1 trades$5000 min
12/13/2024, 6:45:00 PM1 trades$5000 min
12/14/2024, 12:07:53 PM1 trades$5000 min
12/15/2024, 7:14:35 PM1 trades$2,0000 min
12/16/2024, 7:30:56 AM1 trades$4650 min
12/17/2024, 2:29:30 PM2 trades$1371 min
12/17/2024, 7:15:34 PM15 trades$43915 min
12/17/2024, 7:44:56 PM1 trades$360 min
12/20/2024, 2:02:46 PM1 trades$1600 min
12/20/2024, 2:09:19 PM1 trades$100 min
12/21/2024, 7:02:08 PM1 trades$660 min
12/21/2024, 7:08:24 PM1 trades$200 min
12/21/2024, 7:19:04 PM1 trades$370 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
12-06
01-20
03-07
05-31
07-31
11-21
04-30

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
36.9% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 27.7/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.3 br/event