Polydata

@Unfortunate-Prelude

#174,05394

0x94f9958e611d58e657ed4c3510c88175c51926af

40d· 3220 markets · 3138 tradesVol: $252,8792026-05-25T09:27
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

94
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 100%20/20
Profit Factor 1.55x9/15
Sharpe 1.40315/15
Sortino 755589.90110/10
EV $+0.45810/10
HHI 1510/10
Profit Days 100%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Unfortunate-Prelude is an active Polymarket trader with 3,138 trades across 800 markets over 66 days. Ranked #174,053 globally by net PnL, they have generated $155.77 in profit on a total traded volume of $252,879. Their Smart Score of 94/100 places them in the elite category, indicating strong analytical skills despite a modest profit relative to volume.

This trader exhibits a high-activity, high-volume style with a contrarian and sniper approach, as suggested by their badges. Unfortunate-Prelude’s 19.1% win rate and profit factor of 1.55 reflect a willingness to accept frequent losses for larger winning trades. Their Sharpe ratio of 1.40 and zero max drawdown duration indicate disciplined risk management and quick recovery from setbacks. The absence of sell trades and zero exposure to weather markets suggest a focus on specific market types and long positions.

Unfortunate-Prelude’s main strength lies in their consistent upward equity trend and elite Smart Score, signaling effective decision-making on Polymarket. However, their relatively low win rate and reliance on a semi-bot strategy introduce risks, including potential overtrading or systematic errors. Monitoring their evolving portfolio could provide insights into how their contrarian tactics perform in changing market conditions.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Sniper
Win Rate 100%
Profitable
PnL $+156
Lottery Player
99% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
99% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
0% sell
Win Streak
48 wins in a row
Consistent
19/19 days

Categories

5
CRYPTO#43,449$399Vol: $231,500
SPORTS#1,556,472$-235Vol: $20,905
🌤️ WEATHER#205,938$-4Vol: $360
💰 FINANCE#176,504$0Vol: $93
🏛️ POLITICS#1,071,221$-4Vol: $21

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$156
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$252,879
Total Redeem
$2,626
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
3220
total markets
Trades
3138B / 0S
Daily Volume
$67
Account Age
40d
since Apr 14, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$0
Vol: $0
Week
$0
Vol: $0
Month
$0
Vol: $0
All Time
$156
Vol: $252,879

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
100%
250W / 0L events
Realized PnL
$14,356
Win Rate
19%
48W / 203L
Profit Factor
1.55x
Avg Win
$49
Avg Loss
$-7

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $153 (18.6% of PnL)

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET$52
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET$51
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET$51
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET$51
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$51
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET$51
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$51
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$51
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET$51
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$51

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET$-44
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$-20
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$-20
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET$-19
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET$-18
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET$-15
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET$-15
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET$-15
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET$-15
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET$-14

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
1.403
Sortino
inf
HHI
15
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.459
Kelly %
8.9%
Half-Kelly
4.4%
Top-1 market
1%
Top-5 markets
2.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
47.8
Active
Markets / Day
12.2
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
10:00 UTC
Median Gap
4.7m
between trades
Avg Gap
20.4m
between trades
Night Trading
37%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.11
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.5

Bot Detection

#6
55
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
MEDIUM
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
MEDIUM
Median gap 280s — typical for humanSize CV 1.11 — diverse, typical for human37% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.03 — human randomness48 trades/day — suspiciously high12 markets/day — mass coverage

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 10:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
3.9
Moderate DCA
<=1
223 entries
<=2
332 entries
<=5
589 entries
<=10
775 entries
<=20
798 entries
<=50
800 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)98.7%
Mid (20-55c)1.3%
High (>55c)0.1%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 50.3%

Other$825

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
800

Single bracket

<=1
800 brackets
<=2
800 brackets
<=3
800 brackets
<=4
800 brackets
<=5
800 brackets
<=8
800 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
2/13/2026, 7:42:41 AM41 trades$444 min
4/1/2026, 11:24:39 AM6 trades$50 min
4/1/2026, 11:32:37 PM1 trades$50 min
4/2/2026, 2:08:03 AM8 trades$10 min
4/2/2026, 3:42:31 PM3 trades$82 min
4/2/2026, 3:57:25 PM2 trades$50 min
4/2/2026, 4:13:49 PM1 trades$50 min
4/2/2026, 5:51:57 PM1 trades$50 min
4/2/2026, 6:24:11 PM6 trades$50 min
4/2/2026, 7:02:09 PM3 trades$102 min
4/2/2026, 9:00:29 PM10 trades$104 min
4/2/2026, 9:22:59 PM2 trades$101 min
4/2/2026, 10:26:31 PM1 trades$50 min
4/2/2026, 10:58:59 PM2 trades$50 min
4/2/2026, 11:34:21 PM5 trades$50 min
4/3/2026, 12:14:11 AM3 trades$60 min
4/3/2026, 1:34:21 AM2 trades$50 min
4/3/2026, 1:48:43 AM7 trades$101 min
4/3/2026, 2:32:23 AM1 trades$50 min
4/3/2026, 5:08:09 AM1 trades$50 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
02-13
04-03
04-06
04-09
04-13
04-16
04-19

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 3.9/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event