Polydata

@Unfortunate-Prelude

#456,091100

0x94f9958e611d58e657ed4c3510c88175c51926af

85d· 3239 markets · 3057 tradesVol: $253,7452026-07-08T18:14
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

100
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 96%20/20
Profit Factor 57.43x15/15
Sharpe 0.93415/15
Sortino 11.49310/10
EV $+56.42510/10
HHI 2310/10
Profit Days 73%10/10
DD/Peak 2%10/10

Summary

Unfortunate-Prelude is a moderately active trader on Polymarket with 3,057 trades across 800 markets over 128 days. Despite a relatively low global PnL rank of #456,091, they have achieved a net profit of $13.31 on a substantial total volume of $253,745. Their elite Smart Score of 100/100 highlights trading skill, although their portfolio value currently stands at zero, indicating that profits may have been withdrawn or not reinvested.

The trader exhibits a high-frequency, diversified approach, engaging in a large number of markets rather than concentrating on a few. With a win rate of 21.5% and a profit factor of 1.70, Unfortunate-Prelude appears to favor riskier, contrarian trades that pay off disproportionately. Their zero sell percentage and badges like “Diamond Hands” suggest a buy-and-hold tendency, while the stable equity trend and Sharpe ratio of 0.93 indicate moderate risk management. The semi-bot score suggests a mix of automated and manual trading.

Unfortunate-Prelude’s strengths lie in disciplined risk control and consistent, small gains supported by a sniper-like precision. However, the low win rate and absence of weather market exposure may limit opportunities for diversification. Additionally, the current flat equity trend and zero portfolio value could signal challenges in scaling profits further or maintaining long-term capital in Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

8
Sniper
Win Rate 96%
Profitable
PnL $+13
Lottery Player
99% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
100% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
0% sell
Win Streak
53 wins in a row
Consistent
19/26 days
Cool Head
DD 2%

Categories

5
CRYPTO#46,448$399Vol: $231,500
SPORTS#1,717,279$-325Vol: $5,885
🌤️ WEATHER#219,026$-4Vol: $360
💰 FINANCE#189,035$0Vol: $93
🏛️ POLITICS#1,100,483$-4Vol: $21

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$13
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$253,745
Total Redeem
$2,832
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
3239
total markets
Trades
3057B / 0S
Daily Volume
$36
Account Age
85d
since Apr 14, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$0
Vol: $0
Week
$0
Vol: $0
Month
$0
Vol: $0
All Time
$13
Vol: $253,745

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
96%
250W / 10L events
Realized PnL
$14,356
Win Rate
22%
53W / 193L
Profit Factor
1.7x
Avg Win
$45
Avg Loss
$-7

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $153 (15.5% of PnL)

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET$52
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET$51
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET$51
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET$51
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$51
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET$51
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$51
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$51
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET$51
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$51

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$-20
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$-20
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET$-19
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET$-18
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET$-15
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET$-15
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET$-15
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET$-15
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET$-14
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET$-14

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.934
Sortino
11.493
HHI
23
Diversified
EV per $1
$56.425
Kelly %
7.3%
Half-Kelly
3.6%
Top-1 market
2.2%
Top-5 markets
5.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
38.2
Active
Markets / Day
10.0
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
10:00 UTC
Median Gap
4.8m
between trades
Avg Gap
23.4m
between trades
Night Trading
37%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.01
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.7

Bot Detection

#6
45
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
MEDIUM
Median gap 286s — typical for humanSize CV 2.01 — diverse, typical for human37% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.03 — human randomness38 trades/day — suspiciously high

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 10:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
3.8
Moderate DCA
<=1
234 entries
<=2
341 entries
<=5
594 entries
<=10
776 entries
<=20
799 entries
<=50
800 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)99.5%
Mid (20-55c)0.2%
High (>55c)0.4%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 52%

Other$991
Shanghai$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
800

Single bracket

<=1
800 brackets
<=2
800 brackets
<=3
800 brackets
<=4
800 brackets
<=5
800 brackets
<=8
800 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
4/2/2026, 2:08:03 AM8 trades$10 min
4/2/2026, 3:42:31 PM3 trades$82 min
4/2/2026, 9:22:59 PM2 trades$101 min
4/2/2026, 10:58:59 PM2 trades$50 min
4/2/2026, 11:34:21 PM5 trades$50 min
4/3/2026, 12:14:11 AM3 trades$60 min
4/3/2026, 1:34:21 AM2 trades$50 min
4/3/2026, 1:48:43 AM7 trades$101 min
4/3/2026, 2:32:23 AM1 trades$50 min
4/3/2026, 5:08:09 AM1 trades$50 min
4/3/2026, 6:02:53 AM1 trades$50 min
4/3/2026, 9:19:47 AM2 trades$50 min
4/3/2026, 10:09:49 AM1 trades$50 min
4/3/2026, 11:14:29 AM2 trades$50 min
4/3/2026, 11:49:29 AM4 trades$50 min
4/3/2026, 2:19:35 PM1 trades$50 min
4/3/2026, 3:33:05 PM8 trades$101 min
4/3/2026, 5:44:37 PM1 trades$50 min
4/3/2026, 7:02:57 PM2 trades$102 min
4/3/2026, 10:29:41 PM5 trades$50 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
02-13
04-04
04-08
04-13
04-17
06-01
06-09

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 3.8/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event