Polydata

@Unknown-Pathway

#2,869,33335

0x5947822093f310c0803576fd70d64755e894c7dc

186d· 1423 markets · 2612 tradesVol: $557,7142026-07-01T07:26
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

35
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 45%8/20
Profit Factor 1.07x3/15
Sharpe 0.0832/15
Sortino 0.1141/10
EV $+0.0683/10
HHI 3310/10
Profit Days 57%7/10
DD/Peak 64%1/10

Summary

Unknown-Pathway is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, with 2,612 trades across 680 markets over 187 days. Despite a high volume of $557,714, their net profit and loss stands at a negative $1,850.20, placing them at rank #2,869,333 globally. Their portfolio value currently sits at $2,226.52, reflecting an overall downward equity trend. The trader holds a below-average Smart Score of 35/100, indicating room for improvement in trade quality.

This trader favors a broad range of markets, as evidenced by their extensive market participation, but does not engage in weather markets at all. Their win rate is relatively strong at 76.8%, supported by a profit factor of 2.40, suggesting they often gain more on winning trades than they lose on losing ones. The Sharpe Ratio of 0.08 indicates very low risk-adjusted returns, and with 33% of trades involving selling, Unknown-Pathway appears to employ a cautious exit strategy. The bot score of 30/100 implies human-driven activity with fast execution.

Unknown-Pathway's strengths include consistent winning streaks and the ability to maintain a positive profit factor despite a declining portfolio. However, the negative net PnL and low Smart Score highlight potential issues with trade selection or market timing on Polymarket. The lack of drawdown duration suggests they do not hold long losing positions, but the downward equity trend and rank imply that improvements are needed to achieve sustainable profitability.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

2
Win Streak
31 wins in a row
Whale
$98,223

Categories

7
CRYPTO#34,962$722Vol: $375,037
🏛️ POLITICS#1,592,177$-1,460Vol: $77,580
SPORTS#37,596$930Vol: $53,735
💰 FINANCE#4,245$939Vol: $25,082
🌤️ WEATHER#286,802$-2,995Vol: $13,898
📈 ECONOMICS#644,025$-99Vol: $10,600
💻 TECH#7,698$56Vol: $1,382

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-1,850
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$557,714
Total Redeem
$66,585
Portfolio
$2,227
Predictions
1423
total markets
Trades
1756B / 856S
Daily Volume
$525
Account Age
186d
since Dec 27, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$230
Vol: $3,496
Week
$-204
Vol: $65,745
Month
$230
Vol: $3,496
All Time
$-1,850
Vol: $557,714

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
45%
251W / 303L events
Realized PnL
$22,538
Win Rate
77%
258W / 78L
Profit Factor
2.4x
Avg Win
$49
Avg Loss
$-67

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $1,035 (14.1% of PnL)

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET$553
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?$265
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET$218
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET$210
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Wor$205
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET$201
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$198
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$196
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET$193
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET$180

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET$-253
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET$-251
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET$-221
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$-200
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C$-186
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET$-183
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET$-180
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET$-164
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET$-152
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET$-150

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.083
Sortino
0.114
HHI
33
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.068
Kelly %
60.6%
Half-Kelly
30.3%
Top-1 market
1.5%
Top-5 markets
5.3%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
18.4
Active
Markets / Day
4.8
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
8:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.4m
between trades
Avg Gap
26.2m
between trades
Night Trading
8%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.11
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
6.0

Bot Detection

#6
30
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 81s — typical for humanSize CV 1.11 — diverse, typical for human8% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.04 — human randomness18 trades/day — very active580 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 8:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
2.6
Moderate DCA
<=1
306 entries
<=2
464 entries
<=5
618 entries
<=10
666 entries
<=20
675 entries
<=50
680 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)3.4%
Mid (20-55c)56.8%
High (>55c)39.7%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 41.1%

Other$7,351

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.1
Events covered
626

Single bracket

<=1
603 brackets
<=2
617 brackets
<=3
620 brackets
<=4
622 brackets
<=5
623 brackets
<=8
624 brackets
>8
2 brackets

Sessions

#12
2/9/2026, 7:44:49 AM13 trades$520 min
2/13/2026, 10:57:33 AM5 trades$290 min
2/22/2026, 8:51:32 AM1 trades$200 min
2/22/2026, 8:57:44 AM3 trades$340 min
2/24/2026, 7:57:52 AM7 trades$841 min
2/24/2026, 8:15:48 AM1 trades$340 min
2/24/2026, 8:23:24 AM1 trades$480 min
2/24/2026, 8:56:50 AM4 trades$500 min
2/24/2026, 9:03:36 AM14 trades$3002 min
2/24/2026, 9:21:56 AM1 trades$50 min
2/24/2026, 9:45:02 AM1 trades$500 min
2/24/2026, 10:00:16 AM1 trades$450 min
2/24/2026, 12:32:34 PM9 trades$1762 min
2/24/2026, 12:54:34 PM4 trades$500 min
2/24/2026, 1:14:34 PM1 trades$480 min
2/24/2026, 1:19:50 PM10 trades$1000 min
2/24/2026, 1:26:26 PM32 trades$5935 min
2/24/2026, 1:44:34 PM22 trades$7490 min
2/25/2026, 6:47:42 AM1 trades$480 min
2/25/2026, 6:55:20 AM6 trades$1000 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-25
02-28
05-25
06-07
06-15
06-25
07-01
07-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
32.8% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 2.6/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.1 br/event