Polydata

@Untrue-Parade

#12,47863

0x191b9bbd75bba2259eacfbdf8f3378f074d65b67

51d· 160 markets · 599 tradesVol: $152,1032026-07-17T00:01
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

63
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 52%11/20
Profit Factor 1.52x9/15
Sharpe 0.2855/15
Sortino 0.3614/10
EV $+2.39610/10
HHI 17010/10
Profit Days 69%10/10
DD/Peak 49%4/10

Summary

Untrue-Parade is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, ranking #12,478 globally by net profit and boasting a net PnL of $11,631.24. Over 56 days, they have executed 599 trades across 160 different markets with a total volume exceeding $152,000. Their portfolio value currently stands at $762.55, supported by a smart score of 63/100, indicating good overall trading acumen.

This trader shows a preference for a diverse range of markets, avoiding weather-related events entirely. Untrue-Parade maintains a conservative sell rate of just 10%, reflecting a tendency to hold positions longer, consistent with their "Diamond Hands" badge. Their win rate of 66.4% combined with a profit factor of 1.94 suggests a balanced risk approach, favoring steady gains rather than high-risk, high-reward plays. The Sharpe ratio of 0.28 implies moderate risk-adjusted returns, and the absence of drawdown duration suggests good timing and risk management.

Untrue-Parade’s strengths lie in consistent profitability, disciplined holding patterns, and a growing equity trend on Polymarket. However, their relatively low Sharpe ratio and modest portfolio value may indicate room for improvement in risk efficiency and capital allocation. Additionally, as a manual trader with a low bot score, they might face challenges scaling their strategy or adapting rapidly to volatile market conditions.

Badges

6
Profitable
PnL $+11,631
Diamond Hands
10% sell
Win Streak
14 wins in a row
Whale
$70,625
Consistent
18/26 days
High Roller
$1,261/day

Categories

1
SPORTS#6,037$8,444Vol: $41,292

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$11,631
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$152,103
Total Redeem
$78,619
Portfolio
$763
Predictions
160
total markets
Trades
540B / 59S
Daily Volume
$1,261
Account Age
51d
since May 26, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$2,746
Vol: $12,600
Week
$4,213
Vol: $18,109
Month
$4,244
Vol: $19,756
All Time
$11,631
Vol: $152,103

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
58%
70W / 50L events
Realized PnL
$16,041
Win Rate
66%
81W / 40L
Profit Factor
1.94x
Avg Win
$420
Avg Loss
$-439

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $7,585 (45.9% of PnL)

Top Winners

Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs Pcific Esports (+1.5)$2,785
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner$2,467
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland$2,333
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: paiN (-3.5) vs TYLOO (+3.5)$1,721
Map Handicap: MIBR (-1.5) vs Lynn Vision (+1.5)$1,621
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters $1,399
LoL: NRG Esports vs Winthrop University - Game 2 Winner$1,295
FC Cajamarca vs. Club Alianza Lima: O/U 2.5$1,242
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs$1,130
Game Handicap: G2 (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5)$1,125

Top Losers

Map 3 Rounds Handicap: B8 (-3.5) vs BIG (+3.5)$-2,965
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs$-933
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5$-909
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner$-897
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner$-830
ITF Sumter: Martina Okalova vs Sahaja Yamalapalli$-822
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2$-777
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1$-758
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 1 Winner$-755
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 4 Winner$-682

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.285
Sortino
0.361
HHI
170
Diversified
EV per $1
$2.396
Kelly %
30.3%
Half-Kelly
15.2%
Top-1 market
4.8%
Top-5 markets
19%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
11.7
Active
Markets / Day
3.1
Active Hours
19/24
Extended
Peak Hour
17:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.0m
between trades
Avg Gap
41.4m
between trades
Night Trading
13%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.30
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.8

Bot Detection

#6
10
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 60s — typical for humanSize CV 2.30 — diverse, typical for human13% at night — normal sleep pattern19/24 hours — extended daySession CV 1.42 — human randomness12 trades/day — very active

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 17:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
3.4
Moderate DCA
<=1
70 entries
<=2
96 entries
<=5
135 entries
<=10
148 entries
<=20
158 entries
<=50
160 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)4.8%
Mid (20-55c)55.9%
High (>55c)39.3%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 35.5%

Other$14,254
London$1,399
Sao Paulo$695
Paris$126
Denver$43

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.3
Events covered
122

Single bracket

<=1
92 brackets
<=2
114 brackets
<=3
122 brackets
<=4
122 brackets
<=5
122 brackets
<=8
122 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
5/26/2026, 11:37:30 PM3 trades$2781 min
5/27/2026, 1:04:27 AM1 trades$8600 min
5/27/2026, 6:10:53 PM1 trades$2020 min
5/27/2026, 8:09:42 PM1 trades$1390 min
5/27/2026, 9:20:54 PM1 trades$770 min
5/27/2026, 9:29:13 PM12 trades$4666 min
5/27/2026, 10:33:31 PM8 trades$3462 min
5/27/2026, 10:41:01 PM2 trades$881 min
5/27/2026, 11:22:23 PM4 trades$2730 min
5/28/2026, 12:52:27 AM2 trades$1150 min
5/28/2026, 2:16:04 PM9 trades$8920 min
5/28/2026, 2:56:30 PM4 trades$4190 min
5/28/2026, 5:55:24 PM1 trades$150 min
5/28/2026, 6:11:25 PM1 trades$70 min
5/28/2026, 6:16:37 PM1 trades$60 min
5/28/2026, 6:50:48 PM2 trades$320 min
5/28/2026, 6:59:08 PM1 trades$3740 min
5/28/2026, 7:05:59 PM2 trades$40 min
5/28/2026, 7:32:09 PM1 trades$1,0150 min
5/28/2026, 8:53:25 PM1 trades$3470 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
05-27
05-31
06-04
06-08
06-12
07-12
07-17

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
9.8% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 3.4/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.3 br/event