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@Vapid-Match

#2,498,62590

0x46fc00d1e73fa976f8093badd934a514696c8f78

178d· 526 markets · 475 tradesVol: $41,1982026-05-16T06:33
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

90
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 72%20/20
Profit Factor 4.38x15/15
Sharpe 0.2935/15
Sortino 2.77110/10
EV $+3.64010/10
HHI 13710/10
Profit Days 67%9/10
DD/Peak 3%10/10

Summary

Vapid-Match is an active Polymarket trader with 475 trades across 418 markets over 165 days. Despite a high volume of $41,198, their net PnL stands at negative $372.99, placing them at rank #2,498,625 globally. Their Smart Score is an elite 90/100, indicating strong trading skill, though their portfolio value currently reads zero, suggesting limited realized gains or withdrawals.

This trader favors weather-related markets, comprising 57% of their activity, and maintains a very high win rate of 99.4% with a profit factor of 17.18. Vapid-Match’s style appears low risk, characterized by a low sell percentage of 6% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.29, indicating modest risk-adjusted returns. Their timing shows consistency and patience, earning badges like Diamond Hands and Cool Head, with no drawdown duration, which implies disciplined trade management and stable equity trends.

Vapid-Match’s key strength lies in their exceptional consistency and control, reflected in elite Smart Score and win streak badges. However, the negative net PnL and flat equity trend highlight concerns about long-term profitability and capital growth. Their low Bot Score suggests human-driven decisions, which may limit scalability but supports thoughtful trade execution on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

5
Sniper
Win Rate 72%
Diamond Hands
7% sell
Win Streak
226 wins in a row
Consistent
45/67 days
Cool Head
DD 3%

Categories

8
🎭 CULTURE#761,491$-445Vol: $18,591
₿ CRYPTO#64,926$161Vol: $14,218
🌤️ WEATHER#241,076$-44Vol: $4,200
⚽ SPORTS#1,377,100$-36Vol: $2,708
📈 ECONOMICS#524,448$-4Vol: $1,076
💰 FINANCE#43,315$13Vol: $315
🏛️ POLITICS#1,291,474$-18Vol: $84
💻 TECH#58,085$0Vol: $5

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-373
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$41,198
Total Redeem
$13,612
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
526
total markets
Trades
444B / 31S
Daily Volume
$84
Account Age
178d
since Nov 23, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$0
Vol: $0
Week
$0
Vol: $0
Month
$-57
Vol: $894
All Time
$-373
Vol: $41,198

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
84%
222W / 42L events
Realized PnL
$1,578
Win Rate
99%
307W / 2L
Profit Factor
17.18x
Avg Win
$4
Avg Loss
$-39

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $324 (26% of PnL)

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 9AM ET$161
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 1PM ET$98
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 4PM ET$65
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 7AM ET$59
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET$56
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 8AM ET$54
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 4PM ET$46
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 2AM ET$46
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 7AM ET$41
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 6AM ET$34

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 8AM ET$-68
Ethereum Up or Down - November 27, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET$-9

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.293
Sortino
2.771
HHI
137
Diversified
EV per $1
$3.640
Kelly %
97.1%
Half-Kelly
48.5%
Top-1 market
5.6%
Top-5 markets
16.9%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
2.9
Moderate
Markets / Day
2.5
Active Hours
22/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
21:00 UTC
Median Gap
5.0m
between trades
Avg Gap
2.4h
between trades
Night Trading
4%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.21
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.2

Bot Detection

#6
25
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 300s — typical for humanSize CV 2.21 — diverse, typical for human4% at night — normal sleep pattern22/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.83 — human randomness347 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 21:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.1
Single entry
<=1
394 entries
<=2
416 entries
<=5
418 entries
<=10
418 entries
<=20
418 entries
<=50
418 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)14.6%
Mid (20-55c)12.8%
High (>55c)72.5%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 52.9%

Other$985
New York City$27
Tokyo$24
Houston$20
Atlanta$17
Denver$12
London$12
Dallas$12
Los Angeles$11
Ankara$11
Shanghai$11
Singapore$10
Seattle$10
San Francisco$9
Milan$8
Miami$7
Paris$6
Madrid$5

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.3
Events covered
322

Single bracket

<=1
256 brackets
<=2
308 brackets
<=3
314 brackets
<=4
318 brackets
<=5
320 brackets
<=8
322 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
11/23/2025, 10:52:29 PM4 trades$45 min
11/23/2025, 11:04:59 PM4 trades$73 min
11/24/2025, 12:25:33 PM1 trades$30 min
11/25/2025, 10:17:33 AM1 trades$100 min
11/25/2025, 10:25:27 AM3 trades$255 min
11/25/2025, 7:57:47 PM1 trades$300 min
11/26/2025, 11:35:13 AM1 trades$200 min
11/26/2025, 12:19:49 PM1 trades$500 min
11/26/2025, 1:46:05 PM1 trades$220 min
11/27/2025, 11:30:33 AM2 trades$314 min
11/27/2025, 12:07:51 PM1 trades$100 min
11/27/2025, 12:24:53 PM1 trades$10 min
11/27/2025, 1:31:03 PM1 trades$50 min
11/27/2025, 4:51:07 PM1 trades$790 min
11/27/2025, 7:58:47 PM1 trades$810 min
11/27/2025, 11:28:25 PM1 trades$810 min
11/28/2025, 7:49:03 AM1 trades$810 min
11/28/2025, 10:52:51 AM1 trades$830 min
11/28/2025, 12:59:19 PM1 trades$850 min
11/28/2025, 9:00:21 PM1 trades$200 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
11-25
12-07
12-23
01-28
04-11
04-25
05-06

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
57.4% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
6.5% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.1/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.3 br/event