Polydata
Data is 19 days old — refreshing in background...

@Vapid-Match

#2,709,88286

0x46fc00d1e73fa976f8093badd934a514696c8f78

234d· 624 markets · 584 tradesVol: $44,9942026-06-27T11:19
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

86
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 69%19/20
Profit Factor 2.89x15/15
Sharpe 0.2405/15
Sortino 0.8719/10
EV $+1.97710/10
HHI 11610/10
Profit Days 65%9/10
DD/Peak 10%10/10

Summary

Vapid-Match is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, with 584 trades across 477 markets over 192 days. Despite a high volume of $44,994, their net PnL stands at -$481.69, placing them at rank #2709882 globally. The trader holds an Elite Smart Score of 86/100, indicating strong analytical skills, though their portfolio value is currently zero and equity shows a downward trend.

The trader’s strategy heavily favors weather-related markets, comprising 64% of their trades, with a preference for holding long positions as indicated by a low sell percentage of 10%. Vapid-Match demonstrates a highly selective, low-risk approach, reflected in a 99.4% win rate and an impressive profit factor of 19.03. Their activity suggests quick decision-making and a sniper-style entry, supported by badges like “Sniper” and “Cool Head,” but the Sharpe ratio of 0.24 points to limited risk-adjusted returns and low volatility exposure.

Vapid-Match’s key strength lies in consistent, high-accuracy trades with minimal drawdown duration, helping maintain steady performance. However, their negative net PnL and shrinking equity trend raise concerns about sustainability or capital allocation. Despite an elite Smart Score, the current overall losses and zero portfolio value indicate potential issues with trade sizing or market selection on Polymarket that should be monitored closely.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

4
Sniper
Win Rate 69%
Win Streak
269 wins in a row
Consistent
51/79 days
Cool Head
DD 10%

Categories

8
🎭 CULTURE#789,889$-445Vol: $18,591
CRYPTO#69,605$161Vol: $14,218
🌤️ WEATHER#276,265$-149Vol: $7,991
SPORTS#1,474,429$-38Vol: $1,713
📈 ECONOMICS#544,555$-4Vol: $1,076
💰 FINANCE#48,216$13Vol: $315
🏛️ POLITICS#1,336,831$-18Vol: $84
💻 TECH#61,892$0Vol: $5

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-482
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$44,994
Total Redeem
$13,882
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
624
total markets
Trades
524B / 60S
Daily Volume
$79
Account Age
234d
since Nov 23, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$0
Vol: $0
Week
$0
Vol: $0
Month
$-50
Vol: $710
All Time
$-482
Vol: $44,994

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
80%
221W / 54L events
Realized PnL
$1,711
Win Rate
99%
350W / 2L
Profit Factor
19.03x
Avg Win
$4
Avg Loss
$-39

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $324 (23.3% of PnL)

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 9AM ET$161
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 1PM ET$98
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 4PM ET$65
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 7AM ET$59
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET$56
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 8AM ET$54
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 4PM ET$46
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 2AM ET$46
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 7AM ET$41
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 6AM ET$34

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 8AM ET$-68
Ethereum Up or Down - November 27, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET$-9

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.240
Sortino
0.871
HHI
116
Diversified
EV per $1
$1.977
Kelly %
97.5%
Half-Kelly
48.7%
Top-1 market
5.1%
Top-5 markets
15.4%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
3.0
Moderate
Markets / Day
2.5
Active Hours
22/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
20:00 UTC
Median Gap
7.3m
between trades
Avg Gap
2.5h
between trades
Night Trading
5%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.20
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.2

Bot Detection

#6
25
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 438s — typical for humanSize CV 2.20 — diverse, typical for human5% at night — normal sleep pattern22/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.89 — human randomness363 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 20:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.1
Single entry
<=1
439 entries
<=2
471 entries
<=5
477 entries
<=10
477 entries
<=20
477 entries
<=50
477 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)13%
Mid (20-55c)12%
High (>55c)75%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 55.3%

Other$970
Shanghai$31
New York City$27
Tokyo$25
Atlanta$25
Shenzhen$24
Ankara$23
Chicago$23
Houston$19
Miami$19
Helsinki$15
Milan$13
Chengdu$12
Moscow$12
Denver$12
London$12
Dallas$12
Los Angeles$11

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.3
Events covered
372

Single bracket

<=1
294 brackets
<=2
360 brackets
<=3
365 brackets
<=4
368 brackets
<=5
370 brackets
<=8
372 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
11/23/2025, 10:52:29 PM4 trades$45 min
11/23/2025, 11:04:59 PM4 trades$73 min
11/24/2025, 12:25:33 PM1 trades$30 min
11/25/2025, 10:17:33 AM1 trades$100 min
11/25/2025, 10:25:27 AM3 trades$255 min
11/25/2025, 7:57:47 PM1 trades$300 min
11/26/2025, 11:35:13 AM1 trades$200 min
11/26/2025, 12:19:49 PM1 trades$500 min
11/26/2025, 1:46:05 PM1 trades$220 min
11/27/2025, 11:30:33 AM2 trades$314 min
11/27/2025, 12:07:51 PM1 trades$100 min
11/27/2025, 12:24:53 PM1 trades$10 min
11/27/2025, 1:31:03 PM1 trades$50 min
11/27/2025, 4:51:07 PM1 trades$790 min
11/27/2025, 7:58:47 PM1 trades$810 min
11/27/2025, 11:28:25 PM1 trades$810 min
11/28/2025, 7:49:03 AM1 trades$810 min
11/28/2025, 10:52:51 AM1 trades$830 min
11/28/2025, 12:59:19 PM1 trades$850 min
11/28/2025, 9:00:21 PM1 trades$200 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
11-25
12-09
01-06
04-06
04-23
05-06
06-03

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
63.5% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
10.3% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.1/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.3 br/event