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@Verifiable-Macaw

#2,12387

0x1e1aed3928a9617e7c7ae674c4fa7aebbd9d7690

372d· 3610 markets · 35664 tradesVol: $22,074,7412026-06-26T16:46
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

87
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 45%7/20
Profit Factor 6.32x15/15
Sharpe 1.07015/15
Sortino 10.29210/10
EV $+4.08010/10
HHI 2710/10
Profit Days 88%10/10
DD/Peak 1%10/10

Summary

Verifiable-Macaw is an active trader on Polymarket, ranked #2123 globally by net profit with a total PnL of $79,283.73. Over 510 days, they executed 35,664 trades across 1,087 markets, generating a substantial volume of $22 million. Despite a relatively modest portfolio value of $30,640.65, their smart score of 87/100 places them in the elite category, highlighting strong overall performance and consistency.

The trading style of Verifiable-Macaw appears diversified, with no exposure to weather markets and an even split between buying and selling positions. Their win rate is low at 10%, and the profit factor is 0.04, suggesting a high-risk, high-reward approach akin to lottery-style trading. Their Sharpe ratio of 1.07 indicates moderate risk-adjusted returns, while the zero-day max drawdown duration points to effective risk management or rapid recovery from losses. The semi-bot score suggests a hybrid of automated and manual strategies.

Verifiable-Macaw’s strengths include consistent execution and the ability to maintain an overall stable equity trend despite a risky, low-win-rate style. Their badges as a whale and hedger indicate substantial capital and risk mitigation tactics. However, the low profit factor and win rate raise concerns about potential volatility and reliance on occasional large wins. Traders observing Verifiable-Macaw on Polymarket should note the balance between aggressive strategy and disciplined risk controls.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Profitable
PnL $+79,284
Lottery Player
36% entries <$0.20
Hedger
avg 15.3 brackets/event
Whale
$1,049,968
Consistent
86/98 days
High Roller
$1,517/day
Cool Head
DD 1%

Categories

9
🎭 CULTURE#75$78,947Vol: $21,946,253
💻 TECH#3,982$182Vol: $51,396
🏛️ POLITICS#49,352$162Vol: $49,862
CRYPTO#149,855$30Vol: $17,088
💰 FINANCE#31,063$33Vol: $5,926
📢 MENTIONS#152,309$-64Vol: $2,134
📈 ECONOMICS#573,148$-8Vol: $1,976
SPORTS#389,948$1Vol: $83
🌤️ WEATHER#198,565$-2Vol: $12

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$79,284
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$22,074,741
Total Redeem
$9,340
Portfolio
$30,641
Predictions
3610
total markets
Trades
17747B / 17917S
Daily Volume
$1,517
Account Age
372d
since Jul 10, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$75
Vol: $15,265
Week
$1,919
Vol: $278,369
Month
$5,290
Vol: $1,101,624
All Time
$79,284
Vol: $22,074,741

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
77%
92W / 27L events
Realized PnL
$720,808
Win Rate
10%
4W / 36L
Profit Factor
0.04x
Avg Win
$345
Avg Loss
$-925

Top Winners

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?$999
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?$200
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?$180
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?$1

Top Losers

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?$-4,344
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026$-3,490
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?$-2,035
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?$-1,877
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?$-1,761
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?$-1,688
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?$-1,323
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?$-1,249
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?$-1,141
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?$-1,125

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
1.070
Sortino
10.292
HHI
27
Diversified
EV per $1
$4.080
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
0.9%
Top-5 markets
3.9%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
121.3
Very active
Markets / Day
3.7
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
17:00 UTC
Median Gap
54s
between trades
Avg Gap
6.8m
between trades
Night Trading
13%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.12
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.3

Bot Detection

#6
55
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 54s — typical for humanSize CV 3.12 — diverse, typical for human13% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.04 — human randomness121 trades/day — automation1608 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 17:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
17.9
Heavy DCA
<=1
134 entries
<=2
217 entries
<=5
377 entries
<=10
518 entries
<=20
677 entries
<=50
924 entries
>50
70 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)35.6%
Mid (20-55c)1.3%
High (>55c)63.1%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 39.1%

Other$-31,903

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
15.3
Events covered
71

Multi-bracket hedger

<=1
12 brackets
<=2
15 brackets
<=3
18 brackets
<=4
19 brackets
<=5
22 brackets
<=8
24 brackets
>8
47 brackets

Sessions

#12
9/5/2025, 4:12:42 PM1 trades$80 min
9/7/2025, 11:14:12 AM3 trades$1528 min
9/8/2025, 3:42:24 PM1 trades$230 min
9/11/2025, 10:48:59 AM1 trades$830 min
9/11/2025, 1:27:51 PM1 trades$850 min
10/9/2025, 1:09:03 PM1 trades$2470 min
10/9/2025, 8:47:31 PM1 trades$830 min
10/9/2025, 8:54:01 PM1 trades$170 min
1/7/2026, 11:52:19 AM1 trades$870 min
1/7/2026, 4:15:25 PM1 trades$550 min
1/25/2026, 10:41:26 PM1 trades$2870 min
1/25/2026, 11:09:20 PM1 trades$60 min
1/25/2026, 11:47:44 PM1 trades$80 min
1/26/2026, 12:06:28 AM2 trades$351 min
1/26/2026, 1:14:10 AM1 trades$80 min
1/26/2026, 2:26:32 AM1 trades$320 min
1/26/2026, 7:16:24 AM1 trades$380 min
1/26/2026, 7:24:44 AM1 trades$130 min
1/26/2026, 8:12:47 AM1 trades$250 min
1/26/2026, 8:52:25 AM1 trades$900 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
08-08
10-28
12-23
02-17
04-10
06-01
07-01

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
50.2% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 17.9/mkt
Hedging
MULTI
avg 15.3 br/event