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@Vibrant-Paperback

#2,418,93115

0xbeaa8b0144cb915b617bdaacfcf78795f481efeb

148d· 3052 markets · 3232 tradesVol: $579,4922026-05-14T14:20
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

15
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 25%0/20
Profit Factor 1.04x3/15
Sharpe 0.0160/15
Sortino 0.0320/10
EV $+0.0382/10
HHI 9910/10
Profit Days 30%0/10
DD/Peak 88%0/10

Summary

Vibrant-Paperback is an active Polymarket trader with 3,232 trades across 1,130 markets over 141 days. Despite a high volume of $579,492 traded, the trader currently ranks #2,418,931 on the global PnL leaderboard with a net loss of $212.73 and a portfolio value of zero. Their Smart Score of 15/100 indicates a beginner level, while their Sharpe ratio of 0.02 suggests minimal risk-adjusted returns.

The trading style of Vibrant-Paperback appears to be high-frequency with a semi-automated approach, given their 55/100 bot score. They maintain a 100% win rate but a profit factor of zero, signaling that winning trades might not be profitable or that losses outweigh gains. The trader favors a contrarian strategy, as highlighted by their badge, and only sells 28% of the time, indicating a tendency to hold positions. There is no activity in weather markets, suggesting a focus elsewhere.

Vibrant-Paperback’s strengths include high trade volume and consistent engagement, which can provide valuable market exposure. However, the downward equity trend, zero profit factor, and negative net PnL raise concerns about the effectiveness of their strategy on Polymarket. The combination of a beginner status and a declining portfolio underscores significant risks for sustainability and profitability.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

2
Contrarian
78% entries <$0.50
Win Streak
25 wins in a row

Categories

5
₿ CRYPTO#1,360,498$-148Vol: $574,595
🎭 CULTURE#705,427$-32Vol: $2,518
📈 ECONOMICS#604,199$-46Vol: $926
🏛️ POLITICS#178,613$7Vol: $788
💰 FINANCE#62,858$5Vol: $665

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-213
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$579,492
Total Redeem
$73
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
3052
total markets
Trades
2339B / 893S
Daily Volume
$240
Account Age
148d
since Dec 24, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$1
Vol: $23
Week
$63
Vol: $8,428
Month
$-107
Vol: $23,203
All Time
$-213
Vol: $579,492

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
25%
329W / 977L events
Realized PnL
$17,533
Win Rate
100%
25W / 0L
Profit Factor
0x
Avg Win
$84
Avg Loss
$0

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $1,659 (79.3% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 29?$900
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 29?$625
Ethereum Up or Down on February 11?$134
Ethereum Up or Down on February 4?$128
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 4?$66
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 23?$66
Ethereum Up or Down on January 18?$50
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 9PM ET$41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11PM ET$27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET$15

Top Losers

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.016
Sortino
0.032
HHI
100
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.037
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
3.5%
Top-5 markets
15.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
27.4
Active
Markets / Day
9.6
Active Hours
22/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
2:00 UTC
Median Gap
5.3m
between trades
Avg Gap
46.1m
between trades
Night Trading
35%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.96
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.3

Bot Detection

#6
55
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
MEDIUM
Median gap 316s — typical for humanSize CV 1.96 — diverse, typical for human35% at night — bot never sleeps22/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.85 — human randomness27 trades/day — suspiciously high1380 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 2:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
2.1
Moderate DCA
<=1
542 entries
<=2
851 entries
<=5
1093 entries
<=10
1123 entries
<=20
1130 entries
<=50
1130 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)28%
Mid (20-55c)62.2%
High (>55c)9.8%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 44.7%

Other$1,961
Up or Down$132

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
1086

Single bracket

<=1
1053 brackets
<=2
1077 brackets
<=3
1084 brackets
<=4
1086 brackets
<=5
1086 brackets
<=8
1086 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
1/15/2026, 11:23:56 PM2 trades$1502 min
1/15/2026, 11:55:34 PM1 trades$1000 min
1/16/2026, 2:09:52 AM3 trades$201 min
1/16/2026, 2:30:24 AM1 trades$160 min
1/16/2026, 3:07:14 AM1 trades$150 min
1/16/2026, 3:13:52 AM1 trades$10 min
1/16/2026, 4:43:34 AM1 trades$30 min
1/16/2026, 5:45:12 AM1 trades$500 min
1/16/2026, 6:14:02 AM1 trades$560 min
1/16/2026, 6:48:24 AM3 trades$1146 min
1/16/2026, 7:03:50 AM1 trades$100 min
1/16/2026, 8:15:40 AM3 trades$1305 min
1/16/2026, 8:37:14 AM15 trades$13616 min
1/16/2026, 8:59:06 AM1 trades$30 min
1/16/2026, 9:17:14 AM1 trades$1480 min
1/16/2026, 9:51:34 AM5 trades$227 min
1/16/2026, 10:04:24 AM1 trades$500 min
1/16/2026, 11:20:54 AM5 trades$1579 min
1/16/2026, 12:48:36 PM1 trades$690 min
1/16/2026, 12:55:36 PM1 trades$460 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
12-24
01-20
02-10
03-03
03-24
04-15
05-13

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
27.6% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 2.1/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event