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Vivacious-Boyhood

@Vivacious-Boyhood

#4,70340

0x38cc1d1f95d12039324809d8bb6ca6da6cbef88e

511d· 3010 markets · 3699 tradesVol: $5,720,7912026-06-26T12:11
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

40
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 100%20/20
Profit Factor 0.70x0/15
HHI 3410/10
Profit Days 73%10/10

Summary

Vivacious-Boyhood is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, with 3,699 trades executed over 485 days and a total volume exceeding $5.7 million. Ranked #4703 on the global PnL leaderboard, this trader has accumulated a net profit of $32,674.95. Despite a below-average Smart Score of 40/100 and a negative Sharpe Ratio of -0.08, Vivacious-Boyhood maintains a strong win rate of 91.9%, indicating consistent, albeit potentially low-margin, trading performance.

The trader shows a clear preference for weather markets, which represent 89% of their trades, suggesting a focused niche strategy. With a sell percentage of 27%, Vivacious-Boyhood appears to hold positions relatively long compared to more active scalpers. The high win rate combined with a profit factor of 0.70 points to a conservative risk profile that favors frequent small wins rather than large payoffs. Timing-wise, the trader’s zero-day max drawdown duration indicates effective risk management in avoiding prolonged losses.

Vivacious-Boyhood’s strengths lie in their specialization and consistent success rate, bolstered by badges like Weather Pro and Sniper, which highlight precision and domain expertise. However, the low profit factor and negative Sharpe Ratio raise concerns about the efficiency of returns relative to risk. Their equity trend is upward, but the lack of portfolio value at present may suggest recent position closures or withdrawals, which could impact future performance. Overall, Vivacious-Boyhood balances steady gains with some vulnerability to market volatility.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Sniper
Win Rate 100%
Profitable
PnL $+32,675
Weather Pro
89% weather
Win Streak
633 wins in a row
Whale
$939,331
Consistent
145/199 days
High Roller
$1,937/day

Categories

8
🌤️ WEATHER#35$31,475Vol: $5,592,217
📈 ECONOMICS#2,602$1,074Vol: $56,269
🏛️ POLITICS#30,395$398Vol: $38,905
🎭 CULTURE#5,518$844Vol: $22,027
CRYPTO#90,157$102Vol: $6,014
💰 FINANCE#632,757$-1,179Vol: $4,081
📢 MENTIONS#158,557$-121Vol: $250
💻 TECH#17,654$9Vol: $200

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$32,675
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$5,720,791
Total Redeem
$363,412
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
3010
total markets
Trades
2712B / 987S
Daily Volume
$1,937
Account Age
511d
since Feb 20, 2025

Periods

#2
Month
$0
Vol: $75
All Time
$32,675
Vol: $5,720,791

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
100%
227W / 0L events
Realized PnL
$31,735
Win Rate
92%
853W / 75L
Profit Factor
0.7x
Avg Win
$56
Avg Loss
$-912

Top Winners

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F $4,032
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F $3,913
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 60°F or higher on Marc$3,654
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on February 22?$3,122
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 48°F or higher o$2,603
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F $1,634
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 82°F or higher on Januar$1,017
Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on Nove$999
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 37°C or higher on May 12$998
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 28-29°F on Janu$982

Top Losers

Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on Nove$-4,884
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -2°C on January 27?$-4,236
Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 2 be between 2,$-3,960
Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 5 be less than $-3,960
Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 5 be between 2,$-3,960
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 26 be betwee$-3,960
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 11?$-2,406
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 54°F or higher on Febr$-2,350
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C or higher on January$-2,023
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on March 2$-1,802

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.085
Sortino
-0.065
HHI
34
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.022
Kelly %
48.8%
Half-Kelly
24.4%
Top-1 market
1.1%
Top-5 markets
4.9%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
8.0
Moderate
Markets / Day
2.0
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
14:00 UTC
Median Gap
48s
between trades
Avg Gap
1.0h
between trades
Night Trading
19%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.98
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.2

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 48s — typical for humanSize CV 1.98 — diverse, typical for human19% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.09 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 14:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
2.9
Moderate DCA
<=1
531 entries
<=2
663 entries
<=5
823 entries
<=10
899 entries
<=20
930 entries
<=50
934 entries
>50
1 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)9.7%
Mid (20-55c)2.1%
High (>55c)88.3%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 12.2%

New York City$10,219
Chicago$4,259
Lagos$2,352
Miami$982
Dallas$945
Seattle$784
Austin$701
Toronto$598
Shenzhen$589
Denver$537
Jeddah$354
San Francisco$230
Jakarta$138
Singapore$133
Ankara$108
Madrid$68
Buenos Aires$63
Mexico City$52

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.4
Events covered
663

Single bracket

<=1
486 brackets
<=2
605 brackets
<=3
645 brackets
<=4
655 brackets
<=5
658 brackets
<=8
662 brackets
>8
1 brackets

Sessions

#12
2/27/2025, 4:12:33 PM1 trades$2230 min
2/27/2025, 6:29:45 PM1 trades$30 min
2/28/2025, 6:50:52 AM1 trades$780 min
2/28/2025, 7:04:34 AM2 trades$1093 min
2/28/2025, 12:43:13 PM1 trades$370 min
2/28/2025, 1:16:20 PM1 trades$270 min
2/28/2025, 5:45:35 PM1 trades$560 min
3/1/2025, 8:23:04 PM1 trades$2490 min
3/1/2025, 10:34:36 PM1 trades$1720 min
3/2/2025, 11:08:27 AM1 trades$2200 min
3/2/2025, 11:33:53 PM1 trades$490 min
3/3/2025, 3:19:04 AM1 trades$30 min
3/3/2025, 5:13:33 AM1 trades$30 min
3/3/2025, 7:01:38 PM2 trades$92 min
3/3/2025, 7:17:00 PM2 trades$373 min
3/3/2025, 7:24:58 PM1 trades$550 min
3/4/2025, 4:34:58 PM3 trades$214 min
3/5/2025, 11:58:46 AM1 trades$2520 min
3/5/2025, 3:51:50 PM1 trades$370 min
3/5/2025, 8:25:39 PM1 trades$2490 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-02
08-29
11-26
01-25
03-09
04-13
06-30

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
WEATHER
89.2% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
26.7% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 2.9/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.4 br/event