Polydata
Data is 7 days old — refreshing in background...
Vivacious-Boyhood

@Vivacious-Boyhood

#4,18640

0x38cc1d1f95d12039324809d8bb6ca6da6cbef88e

454d· 2974 markets · 3701 tradesVol: $5,698,7202026-05-14T15:26
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

40
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 100%20/20
Profit Factor 0.77x0/15
HHI 3210/10
Profit Days 71%10/10

Summary

Vivacious-Boyhood is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, ranked #4186 on the global PnL leaderboard. Over 485 days, they executed 3,701 trades across 950 markets, generating a net PnL of $32,583.05 from a total trading volume of nearly $5.7 million. Despite this positive net profit, their Smart Score is below average at 40/100, and their Sharpe Ratio is slightly negative, indicating some volatility in returns. Their portfolio currently holds no open positions.

The trading style of Vivacious-Boyhood leans heavily towards weather-related markets, representing 89% of their activity. Their win rate is notably high at 91.8%, but the profit factor of 0.77 suggests that while they win frequently, the losses may be larger on average than the gains. With a sell percentage of 30%, Vivacious-Boyhood appears to hold some positions rather than frequently flipping them. The short max drawdown duration and the badges earned, such as Sniper and Weather Pro, point to a strategic but cautious approach.

Vivacious-Boyhood’s key strengths include a strong win rate and a consistent upward equity trend, which highlight their ability to capitalize on specific market niches like weather events. However, their below-average Smart Score and negative Sharpe Ratio suggest risks related to the size and timing of losses. The relatively low profit factor and potential exposure to market volatility may pose challenges in sustaining long-term profitability on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Sniper
Win Rate 100%
Profitable
PnL $+32,583
Weather Pro
89% weather
Win Streak
625 wins in a row
Whale
$997,073
Consistent
137/193 days
High Roller
$2,056/day

Categories

8
🌤️ WEATHER#31$31,401Vol: $5,574,121
📈 ECONOMICS#2,450$1,066Vol: $54,729
🏛️ POLITICS#28,983$398Vol: $38,905
🎭 CULTURE#5,213$835Vol: $19,592
CRYPTO#84,611$102Vol: $6,014
💰 FINANCE#598,428$-1,179Vol: $4,081
📢 MENTIONS#150,552$-121Vol: $250
💻 TECH#16,222$9Vol: $200

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$32,583
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$5,698,720
Total Redeem
$374,296
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
2974
total markets
Trades
2575B / 1126S
Daily Volume
$2,056
Account Age
454d
since Feb 20, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$1
Vol: $92
Week
$1,113
Vol: $17,890
Month
$921
Vol: $42,076
All Time
$32,583
Vol: $5,698,720

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
100%
227W / 1L events
Realized PnL
$31,704
Win Rate
92%
868W / 77L
Profit Factor
0.77x
Avg Win
$56
Avg Loss
$-818

Top Winners

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F $4,032
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F $3,913
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 60°F or higher on Marc$3,654
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on February 22?$3,122
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 48°F or higher o$2,603
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F $1,634
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 82°F or higher on Januar$1,017
Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on Nove$999
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 37°C or higher on May 12$998
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 28-29°F on Janu$982

Top Losers

Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on Nove$-4,884
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -2°C on January 27?$-4,236
Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 2 be between 2,$-3,960
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 26 be betwee$-3,960
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 11?$-2,406
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 54°F or higher on Febr$-2,350
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C or higher on January$-2,023
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on March 2$-1,802
Will the highest temperature in London be between 40-41°F on Nove$-1,760
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 5?$-1,705

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.073
Sortino
-0.071
HHI
32
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.015
Kelly %
51.5%
Half-Kelly
25.7%
Top-1 market
1%
Top-5 markets
4.6%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
8.4
Moderate
Markets / Day
2.2
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
12:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.0m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.0h
between trades
Night Trading
21%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.89
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.2

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 60s — typical for humanSize CV 1.88 — diverse, typical for human21% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.09 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 12:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
2.7
Moderate DCA
<=1
539 entries
<=2
671 entries
<=5
835 entries
<=10
914 entries
<=20
946 entries
<=50
950 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)2.3%
Mid (20-55c)2.2%
High (>55c)95.5%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 12%

New York City$10,446
Chicago$4,259
Lagos$2,352
Miami$1,033
Dallas$929
Seattle$784
Austin$701
Toronto$598
Denver$537
Shenzhen$534
Jeddah$354
San Francisco$230
Jakarta$138
Singapore$133
Ankara$111
Buenos Aires$105
Madrid$68
Mexico City$52

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.4
Events covered
669

Single bracket

<=1
488 brackets
<=2
608 brackets
<=3
649 brackets
<=4
661 brackets
<=5
664 brackets
<=8
668 brackets
>8
1 brackets

Sessions

#12
2/27/2025, 4:12:33 PM1 trades$2230 min
2/27/2025, 6:29:45 PM1 trades$30 min
2/28/2025, 6:50:52 AM1 trades$780 min
2/28/2025, 7:04:34 AM2 trades$1093 min
2/28/2025, 5:45:35 PM1 trades$560 min
3/1/2025, 8:23:04 PM1 trades$2490 min
3/2/2025, 11:08:27 AM1 trades$2200 min
3/2/2025, 11:33:53 PM1 trades$490 min
3/3/2025, 3:19:04 AM1 trades$30 min
3/3/2025, 5:13:33 AM1 trades$30 min
3/3/2025, 7:01:38 PM2 trades$92 min
3/3/2025, 7:17:00 PM2 trades$373 min
3/3/2025, 7:24:58 PM1 trades$550 min
3/4/2025, 4:34:58 PM3 trades$214 min
3/5/2025, 11:58:46 AM1 trades$2520 min
3/5/2025, 3:51:50 PM1 trades$370 min
3/5/2025, 8:25:39 PM1 trades$2490 min
3/7/2025, 11:29:30 AM1 trades$1760 min
3/7/2025, 12:05:14 PM1 trades$880 min
3/7/2025, 2:31:12 PM1 trades$2490 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-04
08-29
11-23
01-23
03-02
04-06
06-30

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
WEATHER
89.2% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
30.4% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 2.7/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.4 br/event