Polydata

@Warlike-Fallingout

#1,42030

0x48ac40fc545cf327edd5365435c3a9f385614a7e

99d· 67637 markets · 74486 tradesVol: $23,914,7882026-07-01T22:25
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

30
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 100%20/20
Profit Factor 0.03x0/15
HHI 3210/10
Profit Days 4%0/10

Summary

Warlike-Fallingout is an experienced Polymarket trader ranked #1420 on the global PnL leaderboard. Over 100 active days, they have executed 74,486 trades across 532 markets, generating a net profit of $125,001.36 on a total volume of nearly $24 million. Despite a substantial number of trades, their portfolio value currently sits at $569.81, and their overall Smart Score is below average at 30/100, reflecting mixed performance metrics.

This trader shows a high-frequency and high-volume trading style, with a semi-automated approach indicated by a Bot Score of 65/100. Warlike-Fallingout has a low win rate of 39.6% and a very low profit factor of 0.03, suggesting that losses often outweigh gains. They appear to avoid weather markets entirely and do not engage in selling, which may indicate a preference for holding positions. The equity trend is upward, showing growth despite a negative Sharpe Ratio of -0.71, pointing to high volatility in returns.

Warlike-Fallingout’s strengths include a consistent upward equity trend and the ability to maintain a large volume of trades, which could capitalize on small market inefficiencies. However, their low profit factor and negative risk-adjusted return highlight potential concerns regarding risk management and trade profitability. The lack of drawdown duration suggests they may close positions quickly, but the overall metrics indicate a challenging balance between risk and reward on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

6
Sniper
Win Rate 100%
Profitable
PnL $+125,001
Diamond Hands
0% sell
Win Streak
16 wins in a row
Whale
$317,125
High Roller
$3,185/day

Categories

1
CRYPTO#234$124,471Vol: $23,906,444

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$125,001
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$23,914,788
Total Redeem
$59,849
Portfolio
$570
Predictions
67637
total markets
Trades
74486B / 0S
Daily Volume
$3,185
Account Age
99d
since Mar 24, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$4,234
Vol: $77,128
Week
$4,279
Vol: $227,096
Month
$4,234
Vol: $77,128
All Time
$125,001
Vol: $23,914,788

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
100%
254W / 0L events
Realized PnL
$153,974
Win Rate
40%
201W / 304L
Profit Factor
0.03x
Avg Win
$42
Avg Loss
$-871

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET$471
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET$347
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET$318
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$302
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET$287
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET$248
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET$236
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET$209
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET$202
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET$200

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET$-1,822
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET$-1,638
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET$-1,622
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET$-1,609
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET$-1,592
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET$-1,573
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET$-1,570
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET$-1,528
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET$-1,520
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET$-1,499

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.708
Sortino
-0.713
HHI
32
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.811
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
0.6%
Top-5 markets
2.6%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
748.2
Very active
Markets / Day
5.3
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
14:00 UTC
Median Gap
2s
between trades
Avg Gap
51s
between trades
Night Trading
20%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.28
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
20 min
Avg Trades / Session
477.5

Bot Detection

#6
65
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
51% < 3s — suspicious speedSize CV 2.28 — diverse, typical for human20% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.01 — human randomness748 trades/day — automation

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 14:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
140
Heavy DCA
<=1
50 entries
<=2
96 entries
<=5
169 entries
<=10
220 entries
<=20
244 entries
<=50
289 entries
>50
243 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)3.5%
Mid (20-55c)52.8%
High (>55c)43.7%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 45.9%

Other$-256,426

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
532

Single bracket

<=1
532 brackets
<=2
532 brackets
<=3
532 brackets
<=4
532 brackets
<=5
532 brackets
<=8
532 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
3/24/2026, 9:00:17 AM392 trades$1,36514 min
3/24/2026, 10:45:17 AM316 trades$1,12115 min
3/24/2026, 12:15:15 PM386 trades$1,22215 min
3/24/2026, 1:30:23 PM345 trades$1,18113 min
3/24/2026, 3:30:13 PM1332 trades$4,32244 min
3/24/2026, 8:45:13 PM373 trades$1,24315 min
3/25/2026, 1:45:13 AM356 trades$1,26715 min
3/25/2026, 2:15:13 AM334 trades$1,36515 min
3/25/2026, 3:15:13 AM252 trades$98515 min
3/25/2026, 3:45:21 AM332 trades$1,19014 min
3/25/2026, 4:15:17 AM257 trades$88115 min
3/25/2026, 5:30:13 AM286 trades$95215 min
3/25/2026, 8:00:13 AM302 trades$1,01613 min
3/25/2026, 9:30:47 AM602 trades$2,16228 min
3/25/2026, 10:15:13 AM364 trades$1,31215 min
3/25/2026, 11:30:15 AM536 trades$1,82214 min
3/25/2026, 12:30:13 PM391 trades$1,42213 min
3/25/2026, 1:00:13 PM376 trades$1,27915 min
3/25/2026, 1:45:13 PM461 trades$1,47314 min
3/25/2026, 2:15:13 PM1156 trades$4,00144 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-24
04-01
04-10
04-26
05-22
06-03
06-12

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 140/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event