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@Watchful-Juice

#2,022,02916

0x7515a6f0155e823f0b269a2cf46634bebf380b7e

153d· 17 markets · 47 tradesVol: $51,8002026-06-27T00:20
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

16
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 35%3/20
Profit Factor 0.93x2/15
HHI 9318/10
Profit Days 44%4/10
DD/Peak 110%0/10

Summary

Watchful-Juice is a relatively new and moderately active trader on Polymarket, having made 47 trades across 17 markets in just 9 days. Despite a total volume of $51,800, the trader currently holds a net PnL of -$21.91, ranking #2022029 globally. Their smart score of 16/100 and a Sharpe ratio of -0.03 indicate a beginner level with limited risk-adjusted returns so far.

The trader shows a clear preference for weather-related markets, accounting for 88% of their trades, and maintains a contrarian style, as reflected by the corresponding badges. Their win rate stands at 40%, with a profit factor close to 1.01, suggesting a near break-even strategy. Watchful-Juice tends to act quickly, indicated by the fast interface bot score, and sells 43% of their positions, signaling a balanced but cautious approach to timing and risk.

Strengths for Watchful-Juice include focused market specialization and active engagement, which provide opportunities for learning and adaptation. However, the downward equity trend and negative Sharpe ratio highlight risks related to inconsistent profitability and potential exposure to unfavorable market moves. Continued refinement of strategy and risk management could be critical for improved performance on Polymarket.

Badges

2
Contrarian
93% entries <$0.50
Weather Pro
88% weather

Categories

2
🌤️ WEATHER#247,126$-17Vol: $51,778
CRYPTO#1,020,178$-5Vol: $22

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-22
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$51,800
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
17
total markets
Trades
27B / 20S
Daily Volume
$68
Account Age
153d
since Feb 14, 2026

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
45%
5W / 6L events
Realized PnL
$4
Win Rate
40%
6W / 9L
Profit Factor
1.01x
Avg Win
$48
Avg Loss
$-32

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $239 (6489% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 24?$112
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on March 23?$79
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 13°C on March 29?$49
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 25?$26
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or higher on March $23
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET$0

Top Losers

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on March 30?$-126
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on March 25?$-44
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on March 26?$-40
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on March 28?$-22
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on March 26?$-20
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on March 27?$-19
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 14°C on March 29?$-5
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on March 27?$-4
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 25?$-4

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.031
Sortino
-0.043
HHI
931
Moderate
EV per $1
$-0.854
Kelly %
11.4%
Half-Kelly
5.7%
Top-1 market
20.6%
Top-5 markets
53.4%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
5.3
Moderate
Markets / Day
1.9
Active Hours
19/24
Extended
Peak Hour
22:00 UTC
Median Gap
16.7m
between trades
Avg Gap
3.5h
between trades
Night Trading
32%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
0.86
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
35
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.3

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 1002s — typical for humanSize CV 0.86 — diverse, typical for human32% at night — bot never sleeps19/24 hours — extended daySession CV 1.52 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 22:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.6
Single entry
<=1
16 entries
<=2
16 entries
<=5
16 entries
<=10
16 entries
<=20
17 entries
<=50
17 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)18.5%
Mid (20-55c)77.8%
High (>55c)3.7%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 98.3%

Seoul$131
Other$0
Madrid$-128

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.5
Events covered
11

Single bracket

<=1
6 brackets
<=2
10 brackets
<=3
11 brackets
<=4
11 brackets
<=5
11 brackets
<=8
11 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
3/21/2026, 3:45:33 PM1 trades$210 min
3/22/2026, 5:01:59 AM1 trades$440 min
3/22/2026, 5:48:37 AM1 trades$450 min
3/23/2026, 4:47:19 AM1 trades$1120 min
3/23/2026, 4:52:37 AM1 trades$120 min
3/23/2026, 5:20:27 AM1 trades$500 min
3/24/2026, 6:58:25 AM1 trades$1620 min
3/24/2026, 7:34:53 PM2 trades$480 min
3/24/2026, 11:56:37 PM1 trades$500 min
3/25/2026, 12:23:19 AM1 trades$100 min
3/25/2026, 12:59:35 AM1 trades$80 min
3/25/2026, 1:16:51 AM1 trades$60 min
3/25/2026, 1:26:35 AM1 trades$160 min
3/25/2026, 1:34:47 AM2 trades$242 min
3/25/2026, 1:43:17 AM1 trades$50 min
3/25/2026, 4:09:01 AM1 trades$60 min
3/25/2026, 4:20:51 AM2 trades$600 min
3/26/2026, 5:07:57 PM2 trades$551 min
3/27/2026, 8:10:23 AM1 trades$60 min
3/27/2026, 10:55:33 AM1 trades$230 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-22
03-23
03-24
03-25
03-26
03-27
03-28
03-29
03-30

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
WEATHER
88.2% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
42.6% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.6/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.5 br/event