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WeatherHK

@WeatherHK

#5,31580

0x488c725253fc21c7a9ca812030dc2f6343f98c1c

92d· 1061 markets · 4018 tradesVol: $912,7142026-06-26T19:10
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

80
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 92%20/20
Profit Factor 1.14x4/15
Sharpe 0.68213/15
Sortino 66.02010/10
EV $+0.0563/10
HHI 10610/10
Profit Days 92%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

WeatherHK is an active Polymarket trader ranked #5315 on the global PnL leaderboard with a net profit of $28,368.03. Over 275 days, they completed 4,018 trades across 405 markets, generating a total volume of $912,714. Their smart score of 80/100 indicates very good trading performance, supported by a win rate of 66.1% and a profit factor of 1.14. Despite a sizable cumulative profit, their portfolio value remains modest at $390.33, reflecting a relatively conservative equity allocation.

The trader’s strategy heavily focuses on weather-related markets, which make up 93% of their trades. WeatherHK exhibits a balanced risk profile with a Sharpe ratio of 0.68 and no extended drawdowns, suggesting effective risk management and timely exits. Their sell percentage of 39% implies a mix of holding and profit-taking. The bot score of 55/100 indicates a hybrid approach combining automated and manual trading techniques, allowing flexibility and responsiveness. WeatherHK’s badges such as Sniper and Contrarian highlight a selective and sometimes counter-trend trading style.

WeatherHK’s strengths lie in their specialization in weather markets and consistent, stable equity growth without major drawdowns. Their diversified approach across 405 markets and ability to maintain a positive profit factor demonstrate solid trading skills. However, the relatively low portfolio value and moderate Sharpe ratio suggest limited capital deployment and scope for improving risk-adjusted returns. The semi-automated nature of their trading might also expose them to occasional lapses in discipline or timing. Overall, WeatherHK shows promise but faces challenges in scaling up performance.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

10
Sniper
Win Rate 92%
Profitable
PnL $+28,368
Lottery Player
57% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
70% entries <$0.50
DCA Master
avg 6.1 entries/market
Weather Pro
93% weather
Win Streak
50 wins in a row
Whale
$63,019
Consistent
66/72 days
Cool Head
DD 0%

Categories

8
🌤️ WEATHER#38$29,719Vol: $881,959
💰 FINANCE#633,360$-1,349Vol: $16,796
🏛️ POLITICS#126,685$22Vol: $11,398
CRYPTO#1,385,596$-80Vol: $1,776
📢 MENTIONS#7,472$68Vol: $262
SPORTS#380,503$2Vol: $240
📈 ECONOMICS#490,593$-1Vol: $40
🎭 CULTURE#575,817$-2Vol: $23

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$28,368
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$912,714
Total Redeem
$18,043
Portfolio
$390
Predictions
1061
total markets
Trades
2458B / 1560S
Daily Volume
$229
Account Age
92d
since Apr 1, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$-1
Vol: $52
Week
$18
Vol: $11,597
Month
$8,285
Vol: $379,999
All Time
$28,368
Vol: $912,714

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
90%
161W / 18L events
Realized PnL
$41,220
Win Rate
66%
226W / 116L
Profit Factor
1.14x
Avg Win
$122
Avg Loss
$-209

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $8,261 (243.9% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 10?$3,186
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 6?$2,873
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 21?$2,201
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 10?$1,930
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 31?$1,674
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 29?$1,459
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 28?$1,435
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11?$1,276
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on Ju$691
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16?$658

Top Losers

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 2?$-1,996
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on Ju$-1,986
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on April 27?$-1,676
Will Hong Kong have between 130-140mm of precipitation in April?$-1,593
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on May 16?$-1,521
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during the day of t$-1,402
Will Hong Kong have less than 130mm of precipitation in April?$-1,298
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on Ma$-915
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 8?$-728
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 16?$-712

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.682
Sortino
66.020
HHI
106
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.056
Kelly %
37.6%
Half-Kelly
18.8%
Top-1 market
3.2%
Top-5 markets
14.3%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
57.2
Very active
Markets / Day
5.8
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
6:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.3m
between trades
Avg Gap
30.9m
between trades
Night Trading
43%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.13
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.4

Bot Detection

#6
55
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
MEDIUM
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
MEDIUM
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 77s — typical for humanSize CV 3.13 — diverse, typical for human43% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.18 — human randomness57 trades/day — mass trading

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 6:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
6.1
Active DCA
<=1
169 entries
<=2
234 entries
<=5
303 entries
<=10
347 entries
<=20
380 entries
<=50
398 entries
>50
7 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)57.2%
Mid (20-55c)13.3%
High (>55c)29.5%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 58.9%

Hong Kong$5,286
Shenzhen$3,962
Taipei$68
Chengdu$26
Beijing$12
Seoul$0
Tokyo$0
Lucknow$0
Chongqing$-4
Paris$-38
Busan$-41
Shanghai$-76
Qingdao$-581
Wuhan$-732
Guangzhou$-922
Other$-3,573

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
2
Events covered
205

Moderate coverage

<=1
104 brackets
<=2
150 brackets
<=3
175 brackets
<=4
195 brackets
<=5
202 brackets
<=8
205 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
4/17/2026, 8:34:10 AM7 trades$467 min
4/17/2026, 9:05:18 AM1 trades$40 min
4/22/2026, 5:17:30 AM2 trades$21 min
4/22/2026, 2:39:14 PM1 trades$40 min
4/22/2026, 2:52:02 PM3 trades$284 min
4/22/2026, 3:17:26 PM1 trades$30 min
4/22/2026, 3:46:56 PM1 trades$50 min
4/22/2026, 4:01:56 PM1 trades$690 min
4/22/2026, 4:46:14 PM1 trades$650 min
4/22/2026, 11:36:58 PM1 trades$310 min
4/23/2026, 1:51:48 AM1 trades$00 min
4/23/2026, 1:57:44 AM2 trades$541 min
4/23/2026, 3:23:46 AM1 trades$00 min
4/23/2026, 3:30:42 AM4 trades$632 min
4/23/2026, 4:23:14 AM2 trades$384 min
4/23/2026, 4:47:02 AM1 trades$140 min
4/23/2026, 5:20:38 AM2 trades$820 min
4/23/2026, 9:52:12 AM1 trades$90 min
4/23/2026, 10:05:12 AM2 trades$235 min
4/23/2026, 3:24:24 PM3 trades$292 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-31
04-28
05-11
05-25
06-06
06-18

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
WEATHER
92.6% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
38.8% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 6.1/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 2 br/event