Polydata
WeatherTraderBot

@WeatherTraderBot

#96932

0xacc8e9dcabf9d65a5c78e3bec6941ed53a2b7d08

1288d· 1653 markets · 7030 tradesVol: $7,119,4182026-05-20T12:25
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

32
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 99%20/20
Profit Factor 0.86x1/15
HHI 46610/10
Profit Days 34%1/10

Summary

WeatherTraderBot is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, ranked #969 on the global PnL leaderboard with a net profit of $162,099.06. Over 787 days, it executed 7,030 trades across 494 markets, generating a total volume of over $7 million. Despite this activity, the trader’s overall performance metrics, including a below-average Smart Score of 32/100 and a negative Sharpe Ratio of -0.03, suggest inconsistent returns and risk-adjusted outcomes.

The trading approach of WeatherTraderBot leans heavily towards weather-related markets, which comprise 52% of its positions. With a win rate of 39.2% and a profit factor below 1 (0.86), the trader appears to take higher-risk positions, often adopting a contrarian style as indicated by its badges. The relatively low sell percentage of 20% may imply a tendency to hold positions longer or let trades run, while the upward equity trend shows some recent growth despite volatility.

Key strengths for WeatherTraderBot include its substantial volume and diversified market exposure, which demonstrate experience and engagement on Polymarket. However, its below-average risk metrics and frequent losses introduce concerns about sustainability and risk management. The combination of a negative Sharpe Ratio and moderate win rate suggests potential vulnerability to drawdowns, even though the max drawdown duration is currently zero.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Sniper
Win Rate 99%
Profitable
PnL $+162,099
Lottery Player
53% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
73% entries <$0.50
Win Streak
19 wins in a row
Whale
$823,316
High Roller
$1,046/day

Categories

9
🏛️ POLITICS#799$56,940Vol: $2,414,126
🌤️ WEATHER#14$57,180Vol: $1,788,233
📈 ECONOMICS#151$38,695Vol: $925,988
🎭 CULTURE#780,655$-4,548Vol: $823,600
CRYPTO#1,505,935$-2,763Vol: $687,350
📢 MENTIONS#372$4,372Vol: $117,237
💰 FINANCE#1,906$2,165Vol: $102,185
💻 TECH#1,265$950Vol: $28,499
SPORTS#11,086$3,485Vol: $25,416

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$162,099
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$7,119,418
Total Redeem
$72,932
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
1653
total markets
Trades
5647B / 1383S
Daily Volume
$1,046
Account Age
1288d
since Nov 9, 2022

Periods

#2
Today
$0
Vol: $0
Week
$-0
Vol: $0
Month
$0
Vol: $0
All Time
$162,099
Vol: $7,119,418

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
99%
196W / 2L events
Realized PnL
$252,114
Win Rate
39%
103W / 160L
Profit Factor
0.86x
Avg Win
$1,878
Avg Loss
$-1,411

Top Winners

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nominatio$61,090
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?$27,070
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 70°F or below on$5,987
Will Henri Bontenbal become the next Prime Minister of the Nether$5,984
Will Eric Adams endorse Cuomo?$4,898
Will Donald Trump not announce a new nominee for Chair of the Fed$4,819
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?$4,218
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?$3,954
Will Rick Scott be the next Senate Majority Leader?$3,242
Will Elena Lasconi win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?$3,083

Top Losers

Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?$-19,908
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?$-12,396
Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the most seats in the 20$-10,064
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherl$-6,633
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?$-6,241
Will the Party for Freedom win the second most seats in the 2025 $-6,160
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $116K on July 18?$-6,023
Will Randy Fine win by less than 10%?$-5,397
Will MrBeast's next video get 55 million or more views on day 1?$-5,030
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July?$-5,016

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.032
Sortino
-0.064
HHI
466
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.041
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
17.3%
Top-5 markets
36.4%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
13.9
Active
Markets / Day
1.0
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
20:00 UTC
Median Gap
3.2m
between trades
Avg Gap
52.4m
between trades
Night Trading
20%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
7.69
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.7

Bot Detection

#6
25
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 190s — typical for humanSize CV 7.69 — diverse, typical for human20% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.01 — human randomness14 trades/day — very active

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 20:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
11.4
Heavy DCA
<=1
86 entries
<=2
137 entries
<=5
234 entries
<=10
332 entries
<=20
428 entries
<=50
483 entries
>50
11 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)52.6%
Mid (20-55c)22.3%
High (>55c)25%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 44.8%

Other$6,655
Seoul$3,363
Warsh$0
Seattle$-245
London$-18,349
New York City$-23,744

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.6
Events covered
311

Single bracket

<=1
202 brackets
<=2
270 brackets
<=3
293 brackets
<=4
302 brackets
<=5
306 brackets
<=8
311 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
11/3/2024, 1:42:35 PM1 trades$1000 min
11/3/2024, 4:51:12 PM1 trades$2,0000 min
11/5/2024, 12:44:24 PM1 trades$1620 min
11/11/2024, 1:37:19 AM2 trades$2460 min
11/11/2024, 3:08:20 PM7 trades$3238 min
11/11/2024, 3:40:26 PM2 trades$3800 min
11/11/2024, 4:53:46 PM6 trades$7705 min
11/11/2024, 8:01:02 PM1 trades$4300 min
11/11/2024, 8:08:08 PM1 trades$2150 min
11/11/2024, 8:16:12 PM3 trades$1391 min
11/11/2024, 10:28:27 PM1 trades$600 min
11/11/2024, 11:45:30 PM2 trades$153 min
11/11/2024, 11:54:20 PM2 trades$381 min
11/12/2024, 12:04:32 AM1 trades$30 min
11/12/2024, 12:22:12 AM1 trades$10 min
11/12/2024, 1:55:28 AM1 trades$190 min
11/12/2024, 2:53:44 AM1 trades$200 min
11/12/2024, 8:22:31 AM1 trades$140 min
11/12/2024, 12:57:29 PM5 trades$2,6182 min
11/12/2024, 1:12:11 PM1 trades$1,6160 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
02-17
04-17
07-01
09-23
12-31
06-30

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
51.8% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
19.7% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 11.4/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.6 br/event