Polydata
WeatherTraderBot

@WeatherTraderBot

#1,15132

0xacc8e9dcabf9d65a5c78e3bec6941ed53a2b7d08

1332d· 1653 markets · 6976 tradesVol: $7,119,4182026-07-02T20:32
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

32
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 99%20/20
Profit Factor 0.88x1/15
HHI 47610/10
Profit Days 34%1/10

Summary

WeatherTraderBot is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, with 6,976 trades completed over 787 days. Ranked #1151 globally by PnL, the bot has accumulated a net profit of $162,099.16 on a total volume exceeding $7.1 million. Despite this positive net PnL, its Smart Score is below average at 32/100, and the bot currently holds no open portfolio value. The equity trend shows steady growth, although the Sharpe Ratio is slightly negative at -0.03, indicating limited risk-adjusted returns.

The trader’s strategy predominantly focuses on weather-related markets, which make up 52% of its trades. WeatherTraderBot tends to take a contrarian and sniper approach, as reflected by its badges, combining occasional high-risk “lottery player” style bets with more targeted entries. The sell rate is relatively low at 20%, suggesting a preference for holding positions rather than frequent flipping. With a win rate of 38% and a profit factor under 1 (0.88), the bot appears to accept higher risk exposures and volatility in pursuit of outsized gains.

WeatherTraderBot’s key strength lies in its specialization in weather markets and its ability to grow equity consistently despite a suboptimal win rate. However, the negative profit factor and Sharpe Ratio highlight risks around inefficient trade execution and exposure to drawdowns. Its below-average Smart Score also suggests room for improvement in market timing or selection. Traders following WeatherTraderBot on Polymarket should be aware of its aggressive style and the potential for significant variance in outcomes.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Sniper
Win Rate 99%
Profitable
PnL $+162,099
Lottery Player
53% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
73% entries <$0.50
Win Streak
19 wins in a row
Whale
$813,094
High Roller
$1,033/day

Categories

9
🏛️ POLITICS#882$56,940Vol: $2,414,126
🌤️ WEATHER#16$57,180Vol: $1,788,233
📈 ECONOMICS#162$38,695Vol: $925,988
🎭 CULTURE#802,947$-4,548Vol: $823,600
CRYPTO#1,603,524$-2,763Vol: $687,350
📢 MENTIONS#383$4,372Vol: $117,237
💰 FINANCE#2,123$2,165Vol: $102,185
💻 TECH#1,366$950Vol: $28,499
SPORTS#11,793$3,494Vol: $25,406

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$162,099
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$7,119,418
Total Redeem
$72,932
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
1653
total markets
Trades
5614B / 1362S
Daily Volume
$1,033
Account Age
1332d
since Nov 9, 2022

Periods

#2
Today
$-0
Vol: $0
Week
$-0
Vol: $0
Month
$-0
Vol: $0
All Time
$162,099
Vol: $7,119,418

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
99%
197W / 2L events
Realized PnL
$250,952
Win Rate
38%
100W / 163L
Profit Factor
0.88x
Avg Win
$1,941
Avg Loss
$-1,349

Top Winners

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nominatio$61,090
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?$27,070
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 70°F or below on$5,987
Will Henri Bontenbal become the next Prime Minister of the Nether$5,984
Will Eric Adams endorse Cuomo?$4,898
Will Donald Trump not announce a new nominee for Chair of the Fed$4,819
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?$4,218
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?$3,954
Will Rick Scott be the next Senate Majority Leader?$3,242
Will Elena Lasconi win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?$3,083

Top Losers

Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?$-19,908
Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the most seats in the 20$-10,138
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherl$-6,633
Will the Party for Freedom win the second most seats in the 2025 $-6,160
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $116K on July 18?$-6,023
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?$-5,875
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?$-5,644
Will Randy Fine win by less than 10%?$-5,397
Will MrBeast's next video get 55 million or more views on day 1?$-5,030
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July?$-5,016

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.026
Sortino
-0.055
HHI
476
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.033
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
17.5%
Top-5 markets
36.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
13.8
Active
Markets / Day
1.0
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
20:00 UTC
Median Gap
3.2m
between trades
Avg Gap
52.6m
between trades
Night Trading
20%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
7.75
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.7

Bot Detection

#6
25
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 190s — typical for humanSize CV 7.75 — diverse, typical for human20% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.01 — human randomness14 trades/day — very active

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 20:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
11.4
Heavy DCA
<=1
86 entries
<=2
136 entries
<=5
236 entries
<=10
332 entries
<=20
427 entries
<=50
482 entries
>50
11 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)53%
Mid (20-55c)22.1%
High (>55c)25%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 44.2%

Other$12,811
Seoul$3,363
Warsh$0
Seattle$-245
London$-18,349
New York City$-23,418

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.6
Events covered
311

Single bracket

<=1
202 brackets
<=2
271 brackets
<=3
293 brackets
<=4
302 brackets
<=5
306 brackets
<=8
311 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
11/3/2024, 1:42:35 PM1 trades$1000 min
11/3/2024, 4:51:12 PM1 trades$2,0000 min
11/5/2024, 12:44:24 PM1 trades$1620 min
11/11/2024, 1:37:19 AM2 trades$2460 min
11/11/2024, 3:08:20 PM7 trades$3238 min
11/11/2024, 3:40:26 PM2 trades$3800 min
11/11/2024, 4:53:46 PM6 trades$7705 min
11/11/2024, 8:01:02 PM1 trades$4300 min
11/11/2024, 8:08:08 PM1 trades$2150 min
11/11/2024, 8:16:12 PM3 trades$1391 min
11/11/2024, 10:28:27 PM1 trades$600 min
11/11/2024, 11:45:30 PM2 trades$153 min
11/11/2024, 11:54:20 PM2 trades$381 min
11/12/2024, 12:04:32 AM1 trades$30 min
11/12/2024, 12:22:12 AM1 trades$10 min
11/12/2024, 1:55:28 AM1 trades$190 min
11/12/2024, 2:53:44 AM1 trades$200 min
11/12/2024, 8:22:31 AM1 trades$140 min
11/12/2024, 12:57:29 PM5 trades$2,6182 min
11/12/2024, 1:12:11 PM1 trades$1,6160 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
02-17
04-01
06-30
09-23
12-31
06-30

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
51.9% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
19.5% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 11.4/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.6 br/event