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@Weighty-Return

#5633

0xb786b8b6335e77dfad19928313e97753039cb18d

599d· 9442 markets · 10787 tradesVol: $98,142,9152026-07-11T10:48
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

33
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 100%20/20
Profit Factor 0.43x0/15
HHI 4810/10
Profit Days 41%3/10
DD/Peak 3297%0/10

Summary

Weighty-Return is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, ranked 56th globally by net profit with earnings of over $2.3 million. Over 468 days, they executed 10,787 trades across 651 markets, accumulating nearly $98 million in volume. Despite this high activity, their Smart Score is below average at 33/100, and their Sharpe ratio is negative, indicating returns have come with notable volatility.

The trader’s style appears diverse and contrarian, as highlighted by badges like "Contrarian" and "DCA Master." Weighty-Return maintains a win rate just above 51% but a low profit factor of 0.43, suggesting smaller average wins compared to losses. Their sell percentage sits at 39%, pointing to a balanced approach between holding and exiting positions. The absence of weather market trades indicates a preference for other event categories. The semi-automated bot score of 45/100 reflects a combination of manual and algorithmic strategy execution.

Weighty-Return’s key strength lies in consistent upward equity growth and a strong win streak, demonstrating resilience and adaptability on Polymarket. However, the negative Sharpe ratio and low profit factor signal potential risks related to risk management and profitability efficiency. The zero portfolio value suggests all positions are currently closed, which might indicate cautious timing or temporary inactivity. Overall, Weighty-Return shows solid experience but also faces challenges in optimizing risk-adjusted returns.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Sniper
Win Rate 100%
Profitable
PnL $+2,334,030
Contrarian
53% entries <$0.50
DCA Master
avg 10.1 entries/market
Win Streak
17 wins in a row
Whale
$4,106,303
High Roller
$8,771/day

Categories

2
SPORTS#35$2,351,223Vol: $97,888,101
📢 MENTIONS#122,629$-10Vol: $30

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$2,334,030
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$98,142,915
Total Redeem
$553,954
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
9442
total markets
Trades
6576B / 4211S
Daily Volume
$8,771
Account Age
599d
since Nov 22, 2024

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
100%
241W / 0L events
Realized PnL
$3,440,318
Win Rate
51%
250W / 237L
Profit Factor
0.43x
Avg Win
$3,402
Avg Loss
$-8,401

Top Winners

Will FC Metz win on 2025-12-13?$117,903
Dodgers vs. Mets$53,180
Will FC Metz vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw?$34,946
Padres vs. Blue Jays$27,244
Angels vs. Orioles$25,291
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets$24,257
Nuggets vs. 76ers$19,567
Will Liverpool win on 2025-04-06?$19,213
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01?$19,141
Warriors vs. 76ers$15,933

Top Losers

Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21?$-48,558
Reds vs. Dodgers$-47,667
Suns vs. Clippers$-39,105
Rutgers vs. Purdue Boilermakers$-33,404
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Minnesota$-30,911
Will Lille OSC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw?$-29,292
Suns vs. Lakers$-25,493
Rays vs. Orioles$-25,182
Arkansas vs. Tennessee$-25,108
Twins vs. Angels$-24,926

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.246
Sortino
-0.259
HHI
48
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.290
Kelly %
10.6%
Half-Kelly
5.3%
Top-1 market
1.4%
Top-5 markets
6.4%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
23.0
Active
Markets / Day
1.4
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
2:00 UTC
Median Gap
46s
between trades
Avg Gap
20.5m
between trades
Night Trading
36%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.91
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
3 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.7

Bot Detection

#6
45
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 46s — typical for humanSize CV 2.91 — diverse, typical for human36% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.09 — human randomness23 trades/day — suspiciously high

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 2:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
10.1
Heavy DCA
<=1
184 entries
<=2
270 entries
<=5
383 entries
<=10
479 entries
<=20
571 entries
<=50
632 entries
>50
19 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)7.2%
Mid (20-55c)57.9%
High (>55c)34.9%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 28.3%

Miami$15,151
Madrid$14,683
Paris$9,790
Hong Kong$2,458
San Francisco$1,905
Seoul$935
Beijing$5
Houston$0
Los Angeles$-4,134
Seattle$-4,838
Munich$-5,447
Lucknow$-8,340
Milan$-13,461
Toronto$-19,485
Chicago$-22,457
Other$-1,107,160

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.1
Events covered
613

Single bracket

<=1
576 brackets
<=2
612 brackets
<=3
613 brackets
<=4
613 brackets
<=5
613 brackets
<=8
613 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
12/10/2024, 9:17:39 PM3 trades$1,9600 min
12/10/2024, 9:28:11 PM3 trades$11,4061 min
12/14/2024, 3:27:35 AM3 trades$732 min
12/14/2024, 4:44:46 AM11 trades$3,12215 min
12/14/2024, 5:11:41 AM15 trades$3,9567 min
12/14/2024, 5:24:31 AM7 trades$8,3321 min
12/15/2024, 12:33:51 AM1 trades$1750 min
12/15/2024, 12:39:35 AM1 trades$2550 min
12/15/2024, 2:30:50 AM10 trades$4,8367 min
12/18/2024, 12:17:29 AM1 trades$750 min
12/18/2024, 12:41:11 AM1 trades$90 min
12/18/2024, 1:22:05 AM1 trades$2330 min
12/18/2024, 1:27:55 AM2 trades$1271 min
12/18/2024, 1:40:35 AM1 trades$5320 min
12/18/2024, 1:49:21 AM1 trades$00 min
12/18/2024, 1:59:46 AM3 trades$5246 min
12/18/2024, 2:20:20 AM2 trades$4482 min
12/18/2024, 2:29:30 AM6 trades$3349 min
12/18/2024, 2:49:56 AM1 trades$500 min
12/18/2024, 3:05:35 AM1 trades$20 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
12-10
04-15
06-04
08-03
10-11
01-12
03-22

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
39% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 10.1/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.1 br/event