Polydata

@Welcome-Laundry

#20,41196

0x437f1c745a4abd87d5a9a2c61294139d86005b95

56d· 159 markets · 2068 tradesVol: $167,3332026-07-18T07:11
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

96
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 63%16/20
Profit Factor 3.60x15/15
Sharpe 0.77615/15
Sortino 1.07510/10
EV $+454.42910/10
HHI 13310/10
Profit Days 91%10/10
DD/Peak 6%10/10

Summary

Welcome-Laundry is a highly active trader on Polymarket, holding an elite Smart Score of 96/100 and ranking #20411 globally by net profit. Over 48 days, they executed 2,068 trades across 159 markets, accumulating a net PnL of $6,429.06 on a total volume of $167,333. Despite a flat equity trend and a portfolio value currently at zero, their profit factor of 3.36 and win rate of 60.8% indicate consistent profitability.

This trader focuses exclusively on weather-related markets, demonstrating a specialized knowledge area. Welcome-Laundry employs a contrarian and sniper style, often using dollar-cost averaging techniques, as reflected by their top badges. Their risk profile appears moderate, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.78 and no prolonged drawdowns. Timing-wise, their trades are balanced between buying and selling, with a slight preference for selling at 56%, suggesting they capitalize on short-term movements within stable market conditions.

Welcome-Laundry’s strengths lie in their focused expertise on weather markets and disciplined approach, which yields a strong profit factor and stable equity. However, their zero portfolio value and semi-bot trading style introduce some uncertainty about capital allocation and automation reliance. Overall, their performance on Polymarket reflects skillful, data-driven trading with manageable risk.

Badges

9
Sniper
Win Rate 63%
Profitable
PnL $+6,429
Contrarian
61% entries <$0.50
DCA Master
avg 5.8 entries/market
Weather Pro
100% weather
Hedger
avg 3.4 brackets/event
Win Streak
9 wins in a row
Consistent
43/47 days
Cool Head
DD 6%

Categories

1
🌤️ WEATHER#286$6,429Vol: $167,333

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$6,429
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$167,333
Total Redeem
$214
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
159
total markets
Trades
920B / 1148S
Daily Volume
$680
Account Age
56d
since May 23, 2026

Periods

#2
Month
$413
Vol: $26,204
All Time
$6,429
Vol: $167,333

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
91%
43W / 4L events
Realized PnL
$6,443
Win Rate
61%
96W / 62L
Profit Factor
3.36x
Avg Win
$94
Avg Loss
$-43

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $1,773 (28% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23?$691
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22?$580
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 30?$502
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on July 1?$423
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 28?$419
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 29?$413
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 8?$306
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 30?$263
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 26?$260
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 5?$256

Top Losers

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 29?$-568
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 24?$-398
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 30?$-226
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 26?$-132
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 29?$-120
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 4?$-120
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on May$-82
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 5?$-73
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 30?$-68
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 28?$-60

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.776
Sortino
1.075
HHI
133
Diversified
EV per $1
$454.430
Kelly %
31.9%
Half-Kelly
15.9%
Top-1 market
3.8%
Top-5 markets
15.9%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
43.3
Active
Markets / Day
3.3
Active Hours
22/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
2:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.8m
between trades
Avg Gap
33.7m
between trades
Night Trading
78%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.46
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.1

Bot Detection

#6
45
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
HIGH
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
MEDIUM
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 165s — typical for humanSize CV 1.46 — diverse, typical for human78% at night — bot never sleeps22/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.87 — human randomness43 trades/day — suspiciously high

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 2:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
5.8
Active DCA
<=1
26 entries
<=2
47 entries
<=5
94 entries
<=10
138 entries
<=20
156 entries
<=50
159 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)28.2%
Mid (20-55c)37.3%
High (>55c)34.6%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 81.9%

Shanghai$6,341

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
3.4
Events covered
47

Multi-bracket hedger

<=1
1 brackets
<=2
8 brackets
<=3
25 brackets
<=4
43 brackets
<=5
46 brackets
<=8
47 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
5/23/2026, 9:12:25 AM4 trades$1066 min
5/23/2026, 2:15:04 PM1 trades$420 min
5/23/2026, 2:28:40 PM1 trades$380 min
5/23/2026, 3:48:45 PM1 trades$10 min
5/23/2026, 4:06:52 PM1 trades$00 min
5/23/2026, 9:54:55 PM3 trades$70 min
5/23/2026, 10:00:20 PM1 trades$00 min
5/23/2026, 10:19:51 PM1 trades$00 min
5/23/2026, 10:35:36 PM2 trades$01 min
5/23/2026, 10:59:07 PM1 trades$70 min
5/23/2026, 11:12:26 PM5 trades$55 min
5/23/2026, 11:26:39 PM2 trades$20 min
5/24/2026, 12:40:03 AM1 trades$120 min
5/24/2026, 1:21:34 AM1 trades$80 min
5/24/2026, 1:32:04 AM3 trades$382 min
5/24/2026, 2:29:14 AM1 trades$1680 min
5/24/2026, 2:38:55 AM1 trades$80 min
5/24/2026, 2:45:14 AM8 trades$984 min
5/24/2026, 3:12:55 AM3 trades$514 min
5/24/2026, 3:24:46 AM1 trades$70 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
05-24
05-31
06-07
06-14
06-21
06-28
07-05

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
WEATHER
100% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
55.5% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 5.8/mkt
Hedging
MULTI
avg 3.4 br/event