Polydata

@Well-Groomed-Pump

#12,49556

0x38e2f5d6d1693a365e22b7ca0c715f8d92da2909

68d· 30217 markets · 3948 tradesVol: $542,6662026-05-30T23:09
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

56
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 32%1/20
Profit Factor 1.78x12/15
Sharpe 0.2134/15
Sortino 0.3784/10
EV $+0.53010/10
HHI 1610/10
Profit Days 76%10/10
DD/Peak 47%5/10

Summary

Well-Groomed-Pump is an active trader on Polymarket with 3,948 trades executed across 1,416 markets over 67 days. Ranked #12,495 globally by net PnL, they have accumulated $10,280.40 in profits on a total trading volume exceeding $540,000. Despite a relatively modest portfolio value of $2,845, their win rate of 97.3% and profit factor of 35.13 indicate strong historical performance. The trader’s Sharpe ratio is low at 0.21, reflecting limited risk-adjusted returns, while their smart score of 56/100 and bot score of 65/100 suggest a hybrid manual and automated approach.

Well-Groomed-Pump primarily trades weather markets, accounting for 55% of their activity, and has a distinctive style of never selling positions once entered. This diamond hands approach aligns with their zero sell percentage and a consistent win streak, underscoring a high-risk tolerance and confidence in holding positions through market fluctuations. Their trading strategy appears to emphasize frequent, small wins with a focus on consistency rather than large directional bets, as seen in their moderate portfolio size and stable daily activity.

The key strength of Well-Groomed-Pump lies in their exceptional win rate and consistent execution, supported by a strong profit factor and recognized badges for profitability and consistency on Polymarket. However, the downward equity trend and very low Sharpe ratio raise concerns about sustainability and risk management, especially since the trader holds all positions without selling. This approach could expose them to sudden reversals, and the semi-bot trading style may limit adaptability in volatile conditions.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

4
Profitable
PnL $+10,280
Diamond Hands
0% sell
Win Streak
217 wins in a row
Consistent
41/54 days

Categories

2
CRYPTO#4,736$9,709Vol: $506,766
🌤️ WEATHER#1,915$571Vol: $35,900

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$10,280
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$542,666
Total Redeem
$11,124
Portfolio
$2,845
Predictions
30217
total markets
Trades
3948B / 0S
Daily Volume
$225
Account Age
68d
since Mar 23, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$91
Vol: $7,681
Week
$881
Vol: $53,398
Month
$3,543
Vol: $155,790
All Time
$10,280
Vol: $542,666

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
39%
287W / 456L events
Realized PnL
$8,530
Win Rate
97%
575W / 16L
Profit Factor
35.13x
Avg Win
$5
Avg Loss
$-5

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $160 (6.1% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on May 29?$55
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 30?$53
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 29?$53
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 29?$49
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on May 29?$47
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 28?$45
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 29?$43
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on May 29?$42
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 28?$38
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 29?$38

Top Losers

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on May 29?$-45
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET$-8
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 2$-5
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on May 29?$-4
BNB Up or Down - May 30, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET$-4
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET$-2
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on May 28?$-2
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on May 29?$-2
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on May$-1
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on May 29?$-1

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.213
Sortino
0.378
HHI
16
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.530
Kelly %
93.7%
Half-Kelly
46.8%
Top-1 market
0.5%
Top-5 markets
2.2%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
63.9
Very active
Markets / Day
22.9
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
22:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.7m
between trades
Avg Gap
8.7m
between trades
Night Trading
25%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
0.96
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.9

Bot Detection

#6
65
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

8 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
MEDIUM
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
HIGH
Median gap 101s — typical for humanSize CV 0.96 — diverse, typical for human25% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.06 — human randomness64 trades/day — mass trading23 markets/day — mass coverage1119 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 22:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
2.8
Moderate DCA
<=1
507 entries
<=2
990 entries
<=5
1277 entries
<=10
1355 entries
<=20
1415 entries
<=50
1416 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)18.3%
Mid (20-55c)13.2%
High (>55c)68.5%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 35.5%

Other$1,160
Paris$123
Seoul$109
Warsaw$105
London$73
Sao Paulo$72
Panama City$68
Busan$67
Munich$63
Amsterdam$55
Karachi$55
Toronto$50
Atlanta$47
Ankara$42
Miami$42
Tokyo$42
Shenzhen$40
Shanghai$38

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.4
Events covered
987

Single bracket

<=1
763 brackets
<=2
851 brackets
<=3
930 brackets
<=4
976 brackets
<=5
986 brackets
<=8
987 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
3/30/2026, 3:24:08 AM1 trades$00 min
4/25/2026, 7:55:00 PM1 trades$00 min
4/28/2026, 12:35:10 AM1 trades$00 min
5/1/2026, 9:44:48 PM1 trades$40 min
5/2/2026, 3:44:44 PM1 trades$00 min
5/4/2026, 2:33:30 AM1 trades$10 min
5/6/2026, 5:04:14 AM1 trades$20 min
5/7/2026, 6:54:33 PM1 trades$00 min
5/9/2026, 7:59:58 PM1 trades$20 min
5/10/2026, 3:59:51 AM1 trades$00 min
5/10/2026, 7:59:57 PM1 trades$00 min
5/10/2026, 11:24:55 PM1 trades$20 min
5/11/2026, 5:59:51 AM1 trades$10 min
5/17/2026, 3:53:01 AM5 trades$51 min
5/17/2026, 5:11:43 AM2 trades$20 min
5/17/2026, 7:07:23 AM1 trades$10 min
5/17/2026, 4:11:49 PM1 trades$10 min
5/19/2026, 9:37:35 PM1 trades$10 min
5/20/2026, 4:12:21 AM1 trades$10 min
5/20/2026, 5:07:04 AM1 trades$10 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-25
04-09
04-18
04-28
05-10
05-23
05-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
54.9% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 2.8/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.4 br/event