Polydata

@Whimsical-Terminal

#2,961,48685

0x96489abcb9f583d6835c8ef95ffc923d05a86825

188d· 568 markets · 63522 tradesVol: $104,356,7532026-07-02T20:33
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

85
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 64%17/20
Profit Factor 3.39x15/15
Sharpe 0.3226/15
Sortino 2.79510/10
EV $+1.56810/10
HHI 16210/10
Profit Days 58%7/10
DD/Peak 2%10/10

Summary

Whimsical-Terminal is an active trader on Polymarket with a substantial trading history spanning 537 days. Ranked #2,961,486 on the global PnL leaderboard, the trader has executed 63,522 trades across 247 markets, generating a total volume of over $104 million. Despite the high activity, Whimsical-Terminal currently holds a net PnL of negative $5.3 million, with a portfolio valued at approximately $1.6 million. The trader’s Smart Score of 85/100 indicates strong trading skills, though the profit factor of 0.13 and a win rate of 31.8% suggest challenges in consistently profitable trades.

Whimsical-Terminal’s strategy appears to involve high-frequency trading with a contrarian and sniper style, as reflected in badges earned and a low sell percentage of 3%. The trader predominantly uses automated bot trading, as indicated by a bot score of 70/100. With no exposure to weather markets and an equity trend that is upward and growing, the approach favors long-term holding combined with selective entry timing. The Sharpe ratio of 0.32 and brief max drawdown duration suggest moderate risk-taking and efficient risk management despite the large negative PnL.

The key strengths for Whimsical-Terminal lie in high volume execution and consistent activity, supported by automation and a disciplined contrarian approach. However, the significant net losses and low profit factor highlight potential risks in market timing or volatility exposure. While the upward equity trend is promising, the trader’s ongoing challenges emphasize the need for careful monitoring of strategy adjustments on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

9
Sniper
Win Rate 64%
Lottery Player
43% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
66% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
3% sell
Bot
Score 70/100
Win Streak
6 wins in a row
Whale
$12,308,310
High Roller
$22,921/day
Cool Head
DD 2%

Categories

7
🏛️ POLITICS#1,615,156$-5,658,980Vol: $90,378,824
📈 ECONOMICS#12$305,705Vol: $6,494,585
💰 FINANCE#38$83,012Vol: $3,879,595
💻 TECH#12$57,720Vol: $1,678,248
SPORTS#1,787,647$-31,428Vol: $786,302
🌤️ WEATHER#43$28,422Vol: $651,367
🎭 CULTURE#804,533$-100,266Vol: $407,466

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-5,323,111
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$104,356,753
Total Redeem
$2,126,660
Portfolio
$1,609,407
Predictions
568
total markets
Trades
61806B / 1716S
Daily Volume
$22,921
Account Age
188d
since Dec 26, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$-1,265
Vol: $120,309
Week
$140,975
Vol: $963,011
Month
$23,086
Vol: $522,346
All Time
$-5,323,111
Vol: $104,356,753

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
71%
88W / 36L events
Realized PnL
$8,108,560
Win Rate
32%
21W / 45L
Profit Factor
0.13x
Avg Win
$30,645
Avg Loss
$-106,087

Top Winners

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$436,984
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?$112,003
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?$20,545
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31?$20,019
Iran coup attempt by June 30?$17,415
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?$8,926
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?$7,728
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 2?$4,767
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?$3,544
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?$3,488

Top Losers

Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?$-379,572
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$-376,472
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$-343,404
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?$-340,998
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?$-316,058
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$-274,766
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?$-274,458
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?$-260,550
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$-241,168
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2$-232,035

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.322
Sortino
2.795
HHI
162
Diversified
EV per $1
$1.568
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
5.1%
Top-5 markets
16.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
343.4
Very active
Markets / Day
1.3
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
2:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.1m
between trades
Avg Gap
4.7m
between trades
Night Trading
31%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
4.37
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.7

Bot Detection

#6
70
BOT (automated trading)HIGH probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 64s — typical for humanSize CV 4.37 — diverse, typical for human31% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.97 — human randomness343 trades/day — automation498 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 2:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
250.2
Heavy DCA
<=1
7 entries
<=2
9 entries
<=5
19 entries
<=10
30 entries
<=20
45 entries
<=50
77 entries
>50
170 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)42.5%
Mid (20-55c)25.8%
High (>55c)31.7%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 39.4%

Dreams$0
Other$-4,130,356

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
2.9
Events covered
85

Moderate coverage

<=1
39 brackets
<=2
53 brackets
<=3
60 brackets
<=4
68 brackets
<=5
74 brackets
<=8
83 brackets
>8
2 brackets

Sessions

#12
12/29/2025, 9:14:19 PM2 trades$1,1401 min
12/30/2025, 6:01:17 PM2 trades$2,4283 min
12/30/2025, 6:32:49 PM1 trades$5,8640 min
12/31/2025, 1:00:11 AM1 trades$480 min
12/31/2025, 4:24:09 PM5 trades$3,0784 min
12/31/2025, 4:34:49 PM1 trades$2010 min
12/31/2025, 5:10:39 PM2 trades$1,2400 min
12/31/2025, 9:11:31 PM2 trades$8664 min
1/1/2026, 10:11:35 PM1 trades$5,0030 min
1/2/2026, 11:08:13 AM1 trades$2,8750 min
1/4/2026, 7:50:45 PM1 trades$6,8060 min
1/4/2026, 11:00:19 PM1 trades$7,6030 min
1/4/2026, 11:34:51 PM1 trades$6370 min
1/4/2026, 11:41:19 PM4 trades$466 min
1/4/2026, 11:55:37 PM5 trades$2375 min
1/5/2026, 12:11:21 AM3 trades$2,8346 min
1/5/2026, 12:26:39 AM2 trades$811 min
1/5/2026, 12:34:05 AM1 trades$440 min
1/5/2026, 12:45:07 AM2 trades$1,5811 min
1/5/2026, 12:55:01 AM3 trades$5446 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
02-04
03-04
04-26
05-24
06-22
06-30

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
2.7% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 250.2/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 2.9 br/event