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@Willing-Stay

#1,761,07314

0x76b5be5cacdaaca74be6b144317f01be397abd4d

134d· 14 markets · 26 tradesVol: $3672026-05-15T21:09
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

14
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 38%4/20
Profit Factor 0.51x0/15
HHI 11227/10
Profit Days 43%3/10
DD/Peak 351%0/10

Summary

Willing-Stay is an infrequent trader on Polymarket with moderate activity over a two-week period, completing 26 trades across 14 markets. The trader currently ranks #1,761,073 on the global PnL leaderboard, holding a net loss of $13.70 and a total trading volume of $367. Despite the negative net PnL, the win rate stands at 66.7%, indicating more winning trades than losing ones, though overall profitability remains low.

Willing-Stay shows a strong preference for weather markets, which account for 79% of their trades. The trader exhibits a contrarian style, often going against prevailing market sentiment, as reflected by the top badge earned. Their trading approach is manual with a low bot score, and they tend to hold positions briefly given the zero-day maximum drawdown duration. Willing-Stay sells 31% of the time, suggesting some willingness to cut losses or take profits early. The Sharpe ratio of -0.34 indicates a risk profile with more downside volatility than risk-adjusted returns.

Key strengths for Willing-Stay include a high profit factor of 6.56 and a solid win rate, implying efficient trade selection despite losses. However, the downward equity trend and beginner smart score of 14/100 highlight challenges in consistent profitability and portfolio growth. The low portfolio value and overall negative PnL warrant caution, as performance improvements are needed to advance beyond the entry-level stage on Polymarket.

Badges

1
Contrarian
78% entries <$0.50

Categories

2
🌤️ WEATHER#222,644$-13Vol: $254
CRYPTO#794,113$-1Vol: $113

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-14
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$367
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
14
total markets
Trades
18B / 8S
Daily Volume
$4
Account Age
134d
since Jan 7, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$-1
Vol: $0
Week
$-1
Vol: $0
Month
$-14
Vol: $87
All Time
$-14
Vol: $367

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
36%
4W / 7L events
Realized PnL
$13
Win Rate
67%
4W / 2L
Profit Factor
6.56x
Avg Win
$4
Avg Loss
$-1

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $15 (117% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the lowest temperature in London be 7°C on April 22?$12
Will the lowest temperature in London be 7°C on April 23?$2
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 2?$0
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET$0

Top Losers

Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 22?$-1
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET$-1

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.339
Sortino
-0.367
HHI
1122
Moderate
EV per $1
$-0.511
Kelly %
50.5%
Half-Kelly
25.2%
Top-1 market
17.8%
Top-5 markets
67.2%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
1.9
Moderate
Markets / Day
1.0
Active Hours
8/24
Normal
Peak Hour
23:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.5m
between trades
Avg Gap
2.8h
between trades
Night Trading
15%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
0.96
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
10
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.6

Bot Detection

#6
5
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
LOW
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 92s — typical for humanSize CV 0.96 — diverse, typical for human15% at night — different timezone?8/24 hours — normal hoursSession CV 0.84 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 23:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.3
Single entry
<=1
11 entries
<=2
13 entries
<=5
14 entries
<=10
14 entries
<=20
14 entries
<=50
14 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)11.1%
Mid (20-55c)72.2%
High (>55c)16.7%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 94.9%

London$13
Other$-1

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.3
Events covered
11

Single bracket

<=1
8 brackets
<=2
11 brackets
<=3
11 brackets
<=4
11 brackets
<=5
11 brackets
<=8
11 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
4/21/2026, 1:53:58 AM3 trades$205 min
4/21/2026, 1:04:04 PM1 trades$20 min
4/21/2026, 4:47:28 PM3 trades$91 min
4/21/2026, 11:46:18 PM8 trades$97 min
4/22/2026, 7:33:32 PM3 trades$263 min
4/23/2026, 9:02:34 PM1 trades$40 min
4/23/2026, 9:28:24 PM2 trades$21 min
5/1/2026, 1:05:48 AM1 trades$70 min
5/1/2026, 8:29:04 PM1 trades$70 min
5/4/2026, 2:50:42 PM3 trades$132 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
04-21
04-22
04-23
04-24
04-30
05-02
05-05

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
78.6% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
30.8% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.3/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.3 br/event