Polydata
Windy-Sprag

@Windy-Sprag

#2,521,64132

0x6867385ed38e5bfd063a2213ca008b8ec89de995

641d· 78 markets · 234 tradesVol: $20,251 @hpgattani2026-06-08T13:09
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

32
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 64%17/20
Profit Factor 0.85x1/15
HHI 42010/10
Profit Days 48%4/10

Summary

Windy-Sprag is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, having executed 234 trades across 78 markets over a span of 734 days. Despite a relatively high win rate of 61%, they currently hold a net loss of $244.18 and rank #2,521,641 on the global PnL leaderboard. Their total trading volume is $20,251, but portfolio value has dwindled to $0.83, reflecting challenges in converting activity into profits. The trader’s Sharpe ratio is slightly negative at -0.05, indicating risk-adjusted returns below zero.

The trading style of Windy-Sprag appears to be manual and contrarian, supported by a low bot score of 5/100 and badges like Contrarian and Sniper. They engage in diverse markets but show minimal interest in weather-related predictions (1%). The sell percentage of 37% suggests a cautious approach to exiting positions. The profit factor of 0.86, below 1, indicates losses outweigh gains overall. The upward equity trend hints at some recent improvement in performance despite the negative net PnL.

Windy-Sprag’s strengths lie in a consistent win rate and an upward equity trend, implying growing experience or adaptation. However, the below-average smart score of 32/100 and a profit factor under 1 highlight potential inefficiencies in trade selection or timing on Polymarket. Additionally, the low portfolio value and negative Sharpe ratio suggest vulnerability to drawdowns and suboptimal risk management. Continued refinement of strategy could help mitigate these risks.

Badges

3
Sniper
Win Rate 64%
Contrarian
64% entries <$0.50
Win Streak
7 wins in a row

Categories

4
SPORTS#1,579,555$-206Vol: $19,423
CRYPTO#1,269,784$-39Vol: $812
🏛️ POLITICS#680,988$-0Vol: $9
🌤️ WEATHER#56,920$1Vol: $6

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-244
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$20,251
Total Redeem
$473
Portfolio
$1
Predictions
78
total markets
Trades
148B / 86S
Daily Volume
$7
Account Age
641d
since Sep 5, 2024

Periods

#2
Today
$1
Vol: $0
Week
$1
Vol: $0
Month
$1
Vol: $0
All Time
$-244
Vol: $20,251

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
62%
45W / 28L events
Realized PnL
$-249
Win Rate
61%
47W / 30L
Profit Factor
0.86x
Avg Win
$29
Avg Loss
$-54

Top Winners

Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Punjab Kings$300
T20 World Cup: Australia vs Sri Lanka (Game 1)$128
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals$112
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Tit$92
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals$75
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Sunrisers Hyderab$68
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings$58
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals$54
T20 World Cup: Canada vs New Zealand (Game 1)$43
T20 World Cup: India vs Netherlands (Game 1)$39

Top Losers

T20 World Cup: England vs India$-423
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Kolkata Knight Riders$-370
T20 World Cup: New Zealand vs South Africa (Game 1)$-218
$BTC dips below $45k before October?$-70
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?$-56
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders$-55
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Royal Challengers Bengal$-49
ICC Cricket World Cup League Two: Nepal vs Oman$-43
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings$-42
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans$-37

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.050
Sortino
-0.050
HHI
420
Diversified
EV per $1
$-249.433
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
7.7%
Top-5 markets
35.4%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
0.4
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.1
Active Hours
21/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
16:00 UTC
Median Gap
11.0m
between trades
Avg Gap
2.5h
between trades
Night Trading
11%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.00
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.4

Bot Detection

#6
5
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 660s — typical for humanSize CV 2.00 — diverse, typical for human11% at night — normal sleep pattern21/24 hours — extended daySession CV 1.05 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 16:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.9
Single entry
<=1
47 entries
<=2
60 entries
<=5
76 entries
<=10
78 entries
<=20
78 entries
<=50
78 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)12.2%
Mid (20-55c)68.2%
High (>55c)19.6%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 99%

Lucknow$128
Up or Down$7
London$1
Paris$-56
Other$-311

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.1
Events covered
73

Single bracket

<=1
69 brackets
<=2
72 brackets
<=3
73 brackets
<=4
73 brackets
<=5
73 brackets
<=8
73 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
9/5/2024, 3:29:37 PM1 trades$120 min
9/7/2024, 8:10:24 AM1 trades$580 min
2/13/2026, 6:20:11 PM1 trades$2180 min
2/13/2026, 7:59:51 PM1 trades$20 min
2/13/2026, 8:08:29 PM1 trades$40 min
2/15/2026, 9:26:31 PM1 trades$2220 min
2/16/2026, 10:23:11 AM2 trades$4992 min
2/16/2026, 1:27:03 PM1 trades$2710 min
2/16/2026, 1:58:41 PM1 trades$300 min
2/16/2026, 4:50:47 PM1 trades$1580 min
2/17/2026, 6:59:27 AM1 trades$3970 min
2/17/2026, 8:38:23 AM1 trades$4410 min
2/18/2026, 2:50:04 PM1 trades$4180 min
2/18/2026, 6:41:36 PM1 trades$4570 min
3/5/2026, 12:25:37 PM1 trades$4230 min
3/8/2026, 3:03:21 AM1 trades$70 min
3/28/2026, 7:14:16 PM1 trades$3700 min
4/1/2026, 1:02:23 PM1 trades$310 min
4/2/2026, 4:20:57 AM3 trades$626 min
4/3/2026, 1:56:27 AM4 trades$600 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
09-30
04-05
04-26
05-09
05-18
05-29
07-20

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
1.3% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
36.8% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.9/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.1 br/event