Polydata

@Winged-Dud

#2,715,80348

0xf0a8c7ad68b652e4168fead2dc812df7a4fce346

72d· 7000 markets · 1972 tradesVol: $38,6882026-07-04T20:15
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

48
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 32%1/20
Profit Factor 1.53x9/15
Sharpe 0.1573/15
Sortino 0.2553/10
EV $+0.53510/10
HHI 1710/10
Profit Days 75%10/10
DD/Peak 59%2/10

Summary

Winged-Dud is a relatively new but highly active trader on Polymarket, having participated in 1,972 trades across 1,716 markets over 42 days. Despite this high volume of activity, their net PnL stands at -$349.92, placing them at rank #2,715,803 on the global leaderboard. Their portfolio value has declined to zero, and their equity trend is downward, indicating recent losses despite a strong win rate.

The trader appears to employ an automated, contrarian strategy, as suggested by their bot score of 70 and contrarian badge. Winged-Dud favors a high-frequency, low-risk trading style, demonstrated by an extremely high win rate of 97.7% and a very low sell percentage of 1%. They rarely engage with weather markets and maintain trades with a diamond hands mentality, holding positions rather than frequently flipping. However, the low Sharpe ratio of 0.16 and a profit factor of 239.24 suggest that while wins are frequent, profitability per trade is minimal or offset by larger losing trades.

Winged-Dud’s key strength lies in their consistency and high win rate, supported by automated trading that may reduce emotional bias. However, the declining equity and zero portfolio value highlight risks related to poor risk management or exposure to occasional large losses. The trader’s low sell percentage and contrarian approach might limit flexibility in volatile markets, potentially contributing to the current downward trend in performance.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

5
Contrarian
86% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
1% sell
Bot
Score 70/100
Win Streak
355 wins in a row
Consistent
21/28 days

Categories

1
CRYPTO#1,524,393$-350Vol: $38,688

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-350
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$38,688
Total Redeem
$2,275
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
7000
total markets
Trades
1954B / 18S
Daily Volume
$63
Account Age
72d
since Apr 24, 2026

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
32%
250W / 539L events
Realized PnL
$1,179
Win Rate
98%
597W / 14L
Profit Factor
239.24x
Avg Win
$2
Avg Loss
$-0

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $64 (4.8% of PnL)

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET$37
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET$14
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET$13
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET$13
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET$10
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET$9
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET$9
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET$8
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET$7
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET$7

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET$-2
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET$-1
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET$-0
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET$-0
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET$-0
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$-0
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$-0
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET$-0
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET$-0
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET$-0

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.157
Sortino
0.255
HHI
17
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.535
Kelly %
97.5%
Half-Kelly
48.7%
Top-1 market
2.5%
Top-5 markets
6.4%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
163.9
Very active
Markets / Day
142.6
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
13:00 UTC
Median Gap
5.0m
between trades
Avg Gap
7.6m
between trades
Night Trading
23%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.43
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.3

Bot Detection

#6
70
BOT (automated trading)HIGH probability

8 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
HIGH
Median gap 299s — typical for humanSize CV 1.43 — diverse, typical for human23% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.74 — human randomness164 trades/day — automation143 markets/day — mass coverage789 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 13:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.1
Single entry
<=1
1484 entries
<=2
1706 entries
<=5
1712 entries
<=10
1713 entries
<=20
1713 entries
<=50
1713 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0.7%
Mid (20-55c)98.9%
High (>55c)0.4%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 48.6%

Other$1,346

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
1716

Single bracket

<=1
1716 brackets
<=2
1716 brackets
<=3
1716 brackets
<=4
1716 brackets
<=5
1716 brackets
<=8
1716 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
5/29/2026, 11:15:29 AM1 trades$10 min
5/29/2026, 3:20:15 PM1 trades$10 min
5/29/2026, 3:30:31 PM1 trades$10 min
5/29/2026, 3:50:30 PM1 trades$10 min
5/29/2026, 4:16:01 PM2 trades$25 min
5/29/2026, 4:35:25 PM1 trades$10 min
5/29/2026, 5:10:43 PM1 trades$10 min
5/29/2026, 5:55:52 PM1 trades$10 min
5/29/2026, 6:11:37 PM1 trades$10 min
5/29/2026, 6:30:15 PM1 trades$10 min
5/29/2026, 7:20:09 PM1 trades$10 min
5/29/2026, 7:25:15 PM1 trades$10 min
5/29/2026, 8:15:20 PM2 trades$25 min
5/29/2026, 8:25:26 PM2 trades$25 min
5/29/2026, 9:20:14 PM1 trades$10 min
5/29/2026, 10:35:06 PM1 trades$10 min
5/29/2026, 11:50:32 PM1 trades$10 min
5/30/2026, 1:35:09 AM1 trades$10 min
5/30/2026, 1:45:35 AM1 trades$10 min
5/30/2026, 1:55:09 AM1 trades$10 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
04-29
05-07
05-11
05-16
05-29
06-02
06-06

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0.9% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.1/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event