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@Winged-Dud

#2,438,88499

0xf0a8c7ad68b652e4168fead2dc812df7a4fce346

27d· 2675 markets · 1408 tradesVol: $21,0632026-05-16T02:16
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

99
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 88%20/20
Profit Factor 19.35x15/15
Sharpe 0.74814/15
Sortino 43484.17810/10
EV $+0.79610/10
HHI 1210/10
Profit Days 94%10/10
DD/Peak 6%10/10

Summary

Winged-Dud is a highly active trader on Polymarket with 1,408 trades across 1,195 markets over 22 days. Despite a negative net PnL of $-236.14, Winged-Dud holds an elite smart score of 99/100 and ranks #2,438,884 globally. The trader has generated a substantial total volume of $21,063 and maintains a growing portfolio valued at $4.21, reflecting consistent engagement and an upward equity trend.

The trading style of Winged-Dud is characterized by a contrarian and sniper approach, focusing on short-term opportunities with a low sell percentage of 7%. This trader shows a strong preference for holding positions (diamond hands) and is likely using automated strategies, supported by a bot score of 70/100. Winged-Dud’s risk profile appears moderate, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.75 and no extended drawdowns, indicating disciplined risk control and timing in market entry and exit.

Winged-Dud’s main strengths include a very high win rate of 97.3%, an impressive profit factor of 19.35, and an elite smart score, suggesting strong market insight and execution skills on Polymarket. However, the negative net PnL and low portfolio value raise concerns about capital allocation and overall profitability. The heavy reliance on automation and minimal selling could expose the trader to risks in rapidly changing market conditions.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Sniper
Win Rate 88%
Contrarian
53% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
7% sell
Bot
Score 70/100
Win Streak
248 wins in a row
Consistent
15/16 days
Cool Head
DD 6%

Categories

1
₿ CRYPTO#1,396,627$-236Vol: $21,063

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-236
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$21,063
Total Redeem
$2,388
Portfolio
$4
Predictions
2675
total markets
Trades
1315B / 93S
Daily Volume
$101
Account Age
27d
since Apr 24, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$-33
Vol: $140
Week
$-89
Vol: $4,806
Month
$-200
Vol: $18,337
All Time
$-236
Vol: $21,063

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
88%
250W / 34L events
Realized PnL
$804
Win Rate
97%
578W / 16L
Profit Factor
19.35x
Avg Win
$2
Avg Loss
$-3

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $33 (3.5% of PnL)

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET$15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET$9
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET$9
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET$9
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET$9
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET$8
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET$8
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET$8
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$8
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET$8

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET$-13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET$-8
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$-8
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$-8
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$-4
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$-2
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET$-2
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET$-2
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET$-1
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET$-1

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.748
Sortino
inf
HHI
12
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.796
Kelly %
95.2%
Half-Kelly
47.6%
Top-1 market
0.6%
Top-5 markets
2.4%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
147.3
Very active
Markets / Day
125.0
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
14:00 UTC
Median Gap
5.0m
between trades
Avg Gap
9.0m
between trades
Night Trading
22%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
0.59
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.5

Bot Detection

#6
70
BOT (automated trading)HIGH probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
MEDIUM
Market Coverage
HIGH
Median gap 299s — typical for humanSize CV 0.59 — diverse, typical for human22% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.67 — semi-mechanical147 trades/day — automation125 markets/day — mass coverage

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 14:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.1
Single entry
<=1
1047 entries
<=2
1121 entries
<=5
1155 entries
<=10
1155 entries
<=20
1156 entries
<=50
1156 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0.5%
Mid (20-55c)70.7%
High (>55c)28.8%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 50.6%

Other$959

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
1195

Single bracket

<=1
1195 brackets
<=2
1195 brackets
<=3
1195 brackets
<=4
1195 brackets
<=5
1195 brackets
<=8
1195 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
5/6/2026, 12:45:46 PM4 trades$153 min
5/6/2026, 1:43:14 PM1 trades$30 min
5/6/2026, 2:05:52 PM1 trades$30 min
5/6/2026, 2:37:33 PM1 trades$30 min
5/6/2026, 7:17:09 PM1 trades$20 min
5/7/2026, 9:05:13 PM1 trades$20 min
5/7/2026, 9:25:14 PM1 trades$80 min
5/7/2026, 9:40:13 PM1 trades$40 min
5/8/2026, 8:35:15 AM1 trades$80 min
5/8/2026, 12:50:13 PM1 trades$20 min
5/8/2026, 3:15:14 PM1 trades$20 min
5/8/2026, 3:55:11 PM3 trades$145 min
5/8/2026, 4:05:17 PM2 trades$45 min
5/8/2026, 4:25:12 PM1 trades$10 min
5/8/2026, 4:40:11 PM3 trades$510 min
5/8/2026, 5:00:12 PM1 trades$10 min
5/8/2026, 5:15:11 PM2 trades$35 min
5/8/2026, 5:30:11 PM1 trades$80 min
5/8/2026, 5:55:11 PM1 trades$10 min
5/8/2026, 6:05:11 PM1 trades$10 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
04-24
05-02
05-04
05-06
05-08
05-10
05-12
05-15

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
6.6% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.1/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event