Polydata

@Worst-Analogue

#43975

0x3471a897e56a8d3621ca79af87dae4325977f17e

180d· 3565 markets · 11734 tradesVol: $28,450,1252026-07-16T00:47
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

75
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 92%20/20
Profit Factor 0.07x0/15
Sharpe 1.00915/15
Sortino 2.73010/10
HHI 4410/10
Profit Days 98%10/10
DD/Peak 1%10/10

Summary

Worst-Analogue is a highly active trader on Polymarket, holding the rank of #439 on the global PnL leaderboard. Over 161 days, they executed 11,734 trades across 473 markets, generating a net PnL of $454,151.23 on a total volume exceeding $28 million. Their Smart Score of 75/100 reflects very good trading performance, supported by a Sharpe ratio of 1.01 and a steady equity trend. Despite a relatively low portfolio value of $1,875, Worst-Analogue maintains consistent activity with no recorded drawdown duration.

This trader exhibits a contrarian approach, as indicated by their badges and a low 23.6% win rate paired with a profit factor of 0.07. Worst-Analogue appears to engage frequently in high-risk, high-reward trades rather than playing it safe. Their trading style avoids selling, with 0% sell percentage, suggesting a strong holding bias aligned with their "Diamond Hands" reputation. Timing-wise, they sustain a stable presence without prolonged drawdowns, implying disciplined risk management despite aggressive positioning.

Worst-Analogue’s strengths lie in their ability to generate significant net profits through a high volume of trades and consistent execution, as reflected in their very good Smart Score. However, the low win rate and profit factor indicate most trades lose value, posing a risk of larger cumulative losses if market conditions shift. Their semi-bot trading style blends automation with manual decisions, which could offer adaptability but also introduces complexity in strategy consistency.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

9
Sniper
Win Rate 92%
Profitable
PnL $+454,151
Contrarian
57% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
0% sell
Win Streak
7 wins in a row
Whale
$2,535,783
Consistent
105/107 days
High Roller
$15,750/day
Cool Head
DD 1%

Categories

2
🏛️ POLITICS#28,879$443Vol: $342,899
SPORTS#1,837,035$-3,167Vol: $154,983

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$454,151
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$28,450,125
Total Redeem
$240,514
Portfolio
$1,875
Predictions
3565
total markets
Trades
11734B / 0S
Daily Volume
$15,750
Account Age
180d
since Jan 16, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$8,242
Vol: $207,063
Week
$5,469
Vol: $660,749
Month
$21,479
Vol: $2,155,963
All Time
$454,151
Vol: $28,450,125

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
94%
204W / 13L events
Realized PnL
$1,332,828
Win Rate
24%
90W / 291L
Profit Factor
0.07x
Avg Win
$1,520
Avg Loss
$-6,844

Top Winners

Dota 2: 1win vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner$9,612
Dota 2: 1win vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner$8,185
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner$7,667
Dota 2: OG vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner$6,649
Dota 2: Aurora vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - Esports World Cup Survival$6,522
Dota 2: 1win vs OG - Game 2 Winner$6,256
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner$6,167
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner$5,909
Dota 2: Aurora vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner$5,691
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs NRG - Map 3 Winner$5,365

Top Losers

Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs$-49,846
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs$-34,102
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner$-20,410
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A$-20,168
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A$-19,626
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner$-18,627
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner$-17,446
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner$-17,287
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TYLOO (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group $-17,270
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner$-17,183

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
1.009
Sortino
2.730
HHI
44
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.747
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
2%
Top-5 markets
6.2%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
77.7
Very active
Markets / Day
3.1
Active Hours
23/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
16:00 UTC
Median Gap
26s
between trades
Avg Gap
9.7m
between trades
Night Trading
1%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.36
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
5 min
Avg Trades / Session
9.0

Bot Detection

#6
40
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 26s — typical for humanSize CV 1.36 — diverse, typical for human1% at night — normal sleep pattern23/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.18 — human randomness78 trades/day — mass trading

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 16:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
24.8
Heavy DCA
<=1
25 entries
<=2
52 entries
<=5
103 entries
<=10
150 entries
<=20
234 entries
<=50
425 entries
>50
48 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)10.8%
Mid (20-55c)54.7%
High (>55c)34.5%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 25.5%

Atlanta$-7,039
London$-31,607
Other$-1,816,197

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.6
Events covered
289

Single bracket

<=1
165 brackets
<=2
234 brackets
<=3
285 brackets
<=4
288 brackets
<=5
289 brackets
<=8
289 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
2/14/2026, 4:53:17 PM1 trades$4730 min
2/14/2026, 5:00:27 PM1 trades$3800 min
2/14/2026, 5:09:03 PM2 trades$3392 min
2/14/2026, 5:33:07 PM3 trades$1,1650 min
2/14/2026, 5:41:57 PM2 trades$6102 min
2/14/2026, 6:56:35 PM1 trades$120 min
2/14/2026, 7:06:29 PM1 trades$1220 min
2/14/2026, 8:01:47 PM58 trades$12,81614 min
2/14/2026, 8:20:53 PM27 trades$5,8747 min
2/14/2026, 8:42:55 PM1 trades$110 min
2/14/2026, 8:58:33 PM1 trades$40 min
2/14/2026, 9:17:29 PM2 trades$920 min
2/14/2026, 9:33:35 PM4 trades$3344 min
2/14/2026, 9:47:33 PM1 trades$210 min
2/14/2026, 9:56:11 PM3 trades$1,4571 min
2/14/2026, 10:11:53 PM3 trades$8532 min
2/14/2026, 10:25:53 PM2 trades$6290 min
2/14/2026, 10:40:37 PM81 trades$17,36550 min
2/15/2026, 8:34:37 AM9 trades$1,0423 min
2/15/2026, 8:43:21 AM2 trades$2300 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
02-04
02-28
03-20
04-13
05-15
06-08
07-10

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 24.8/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.6 br/event