Polydata

@Wrong-Mallard

#2,39230

0x2fb0f88ef5ba40e799b996e6f07b590d92b4abf8

610d· 1341 markets · 5191 tradesVol: $34,169,8482026-07-08T13:12
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

30
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 100%20/20
Profit Factor 0.12x0/15
HHI 17210/10
Profit Days 24%0/10

Summary

Wrong-Mallard is an experienced Polymarket trader ranked #2392 on the global PnL leaderboard, with a net profit of $73,841.51 accumulated over 345 active days. They have executed 5,191 trades across 438 markets, generating a substantial total volume of over $34 million. Despite the large volume and moderate win rate of 63.2%, their overall portfolio value currently stands at zero, and their Sharpe ratio is negative at -0.43, indicating underperformance relative to risk.

The trading strategy of Wrong-Mallard appears to blend automated and manual approaches, as reflected by a semi-bot score of 55. They favor a low sell percentage of 2%, suggesting a tendency to hold positions rather than frequently exit trades. The trader demonstrates a sniper-style precision with badges like "Sniper" and "DCA Master," indicating a focus on timing entries and dollar-cost averaging. However, their profit factor of 0.12 indicates that losses have outweighed gains in terms of dollar amounts, despite a decent win rate.

Strengths of Wrong-Mallard include high trade activity, consistent market engagement, and a disciplined approach to position sizing. Yet, the declining equity trend and negative Sharpe ratio raise concerns about risk management and capital preservation. The low profit factor and absence of weather market exposure highlight a need to diversify and improve profitability. Overall, Wrong-Mallard shows potential but faces challenges in converting activity into sustained financial growth on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Sniper
Win Rate 100%
Profitable
PnL $+73,842
Diamond Hands
2% sell
DCA Master
avg 11.9 entries/market
Win Streak
87 wins in a row
Whale
$22,615,059
High Roller
$65,551/day

Categories

8
SPORTS#2,160$25,236Vol: $17,698,282
🏛️ POLITICS#1,304$36,904Vol: $8,837,336
📈 ECONOMICS#497$11,986Vol: $3,130,172
CRYPTO#14,936$2,950Vol: $2,535,945
🎭 CULTURE#1,958$3,657Vol: $1,390,533
💻 TECH#7,627$58Vol: $57,874
💰 FINANCE#28,563$39Vol: $39,373
📢 MENTIONS#13,874$21Vol: $16,366

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$73,842
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$34,169,848
Total Redeem
$9,730,579
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
1341
total markets
Trades
5081B / 110S
Daily Volume
$65,551
Account Age
610d
since Nov 5, 2024

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
100%
230W / 0L events
Realized PnL
$1,474,031
Win Rate
63%
268W / 156L
Profit Factor
0.12x
Avg Win
$6,672
Avg Loss
$-93,292

Top Winners

Will there be a US Government shutdown? $430,784
Will another person win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?$142,102
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?$91,836
Panthers vs. Falcons$76,805
Knicks vs. Wizards$76,423
Nets vs. Magic$75,610
Heat vs. Rockets$74,856
Packers vs. Vikings$67,063
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated?$57,555
Broncos vs. Bengals$55,513

Top Losers

Will the Giants win Super Bowl 2025?$-1,428,239
Kings vs. Clippers$-960,589
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?$-951,907
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential E$-685,407
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?$-670,849
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?$-500,874
Bitcoin above $100,000 on November 29?$-430,365
Will RB Leipzig win the UEFA Champions League?$-327,378
Will Trump win Florida by 8+ points?$-319,806
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104$-265,718

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.426
Sortino
-0.393
HHI
172
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.565
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
6.3%
Top-5 markets
22.9%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
84.6
Very active
Markets / Day
7.1
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
0:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.0m
between trades
Avg Gap
16.1m
between trades
Night Trading
42%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
6.72
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.8

Bot Detection

#6
55
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
MEDIUM
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 62s — typical for humanSize CV 6.72 — diverse, typical for human42% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.89 — human randomness85 trades/day — mass trading

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 0:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
11.9
Heavy DCA
<=1
106 entries
<=2
150 entries
<=5
232 entries
<=10
296 entries
<=20
359 entries
<=50
420 entries
>50
8 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0.2%
Mid (20-55c)0%
High (>55c)99.8%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 51.6%

Miami$40
Los Angeles$5
Atlanta$0
Other$-12,765,661

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.2
Events covered
355

Single bracket

<=1
317 brackets
<=2
335 brackets
<=3
346 brackets
<=4
350 brackets
<=5
351 brackets
<=8
354 brackets
>8
1 brackets

Sessions

#12
11/6/2024, 10:41:43 AM1 trades$7,9920 min
11/6/2024, 10:53:23 AM2 trades$20,0234 min
11/6/2024, 11:07:10 AM2 trades$45,4721 min
11/6/2024, 12:08:22 PM1 trades$1,5900 min
11/6/2024, 12:58:31 PM2 trades$50,7810 min
11/6/2024, 1:04:23 PM3 trades$114,7844 min
11/6/2024, 2:06:08 PM1 trades$52,9520 min
11/6/2024, 2:28:39 PM1 trades$149,8500 min
11/6/2024, 2:34:57 PM4 trades$441,2625 min
11/6/2024, 2:48:46 PM5 trades$55,2483 min
11/6/2024, 3:19:33 PM12 trades$305,5481 min
11/7/2024, 12:40:29 AM1 trades$3900 min
11/7/2024, 1:58:54 AM1 trades$4,9500 min
11/7/2024, 10:13:28 PM1 trades$5000 min
11/7/2024, 10:22:06 PM1 trades$2000 min
11/8/2024, 5:06:15 PM1 trades$200 min
11/9/2024, 3:57:10 AM1 trades$1,4860 min
11/9/2024, 4:11:30 AM2 trades$1,1312 min
11/9/2024, 4:20:56 AM1 trades$3930 min
11/9/2024, 6:32:08 AM2 trades$89,2794 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
07-20
11-21
12-01
12-14
12-25
01-04
02-09

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
2.1% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 11.9/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.2 br/event