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@Wrong-Mallard

#2,02230

0x2fb0f88ef5ba40e799b996e6f07b590d92b4abf8

562d· 1341 markets · 5271 tradesVol: $34,169,8482026-05-15T23:35
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

30
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 100%20/20
Profit Factor 0.11x0/15
HHI 16710/10
Profit Days 24%0/10

Summary

Wrong-Mallard is a moderately active Polymarket trader ranked #2022 on the global PnL leaderboard. Over 345 days, they executed 5,271 trades across 441 markets, generating a net profit of $73,841.51 on a total volume of $34.17 million. Despite this sizable activity, their Smart Score is below average at 30/100, reflecting mixed performance metrics, including a negative Sharpe ratio of -0.43 and a profit factor of only 0.11.

The trader shows a preference for a diversified range of markets but does not engage in weather-related markets. With a win rate of 62.5%, Wrong-Mallard appears to employ a strategy characterized by frequent trades and a strong hold mentality, as suggested by badges like Diamond Hands and DCA Master. Their sell percentage is very low at 2%, indicating a tendency to hold positions for extended periods. The semi-bot score of 55/100 suggests a hybrid approach combining automated and manual trading.

Wrong-Mallard’s strengths include consistent winning trades and a sizable net PnL, supported by disciplined entry timing. However, the downward equity trend and negative Sharpe ratio highlight significant risk exposure and potential volatility in their portfolio. The low profit factor and brief max drawdown duration may indicate vulnerability to rapid losses. Traders monitoring Wrong-Mallard on Polymarket should consider these mixed signals when evaluating their strategy’s sustainability.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Sniper
Win Rate 100%
Profitable
PnL $+73,842
Diamond Hands
2% sell
DCA Master
avg 11.9 entries/market
Win Streak
86 wins in a row
Whale
$23,064,506
High Roller
$66,854/day

Categories

8
SPORTS#1,906$24,625Vol: $17,705,377
🏛️ POLITICS#1,192$36,904Vol: $8,837,336
📈 ECONOMICS#454$11,986Vol: $3,130,172
CRYPTO#13,931$2,950Vol: $2,535,945
🎭 CULTURE#1,805$3,657Vol: $1,390,533
💻 TECH#7,001$58Vol: $57,874
💰 FINANCE#25,855$39Vol: $39,373
📢 MENTIONS#13,549$21Vol: $16,366

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$73,842
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$34,169,848
Total Redeem
$9,730,579
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
1341
total markets
Trades
5158B / 113S
Daily Volume
$66,854
Account Age
562d
since Nov 5, 2024

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
100%
230W / 0L events
Realized PnL
$1,474,031
Win Rate
63%
267W / 160L
Profit Factor
0.11x
Avg Win
$6,406
Avg Loss
$-93,283

Top Winners

Will there be a US Government shutdown? $430,784
Will another person win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?$142,102
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?$91,836
Panthers vs. Falcons$76,805
Knicks vs. Wizards$76,423
Nets vs. Magic$75,610
Heat vs. Rockets$74,856
Packers vs. Vikings$67,063
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated?$57,555
Broncos vs. Bengals$55,513

Top Losers

Will the Giants win Super Bowl 2025?$-1,428,239
Kings vs. Clippers$-960,589
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?$-951,907
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential E$-685,407
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?$-670,849
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?$-500,874
Bitcoin above $100,000 on November 29?$-430,365
Will RB Leipzig win the UEFA Champions League?$-327,378
Will Trump win Florida by 8+ points?$-319,806
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104$-265,718

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.431
Sortino
-0.397
HHI
167
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.573
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
6.2%
Top-5 markets
22.5%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
85.9
Very active
Markets / Day
7.2
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
0:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.0m
between trades
Avg Gap
16.1m
between trades
Night Trading
43%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
6.66
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.3

Bot Detection

#6
55
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
MEDIUM
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 62s — typical for humanSize CV 6.66 — diverse, typical for human43% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.89 — human randomness86 trades/day — mass trading

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 0:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
11.9
Heavy DCA
<=1
109 entries
<=2
151 entries
<=5
232 entries
<=10
299 entries
<=20
360 entries
<=50
423 entries
>50
9 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0.2%
Mid (20-55c)0%
High (>55c)99.8%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 51.5%

Miami$40
Los Angeles$5
Atlanta$0
Other$-13,214,989

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.2
Events covered
357

Single bracket

<=1
318 brackets
<=2
337 brackets
<=3
348 brackets
<=4
352 brackets
<=5
353 brackets
<=8
356 brackets
>8
1 brackets

Sessions

#12
11/6/2024, 10:41:43 AM1 trades$7,9920 min
11/6/2024, 10:53:23 AM2 trades$20,0234 min
11/6/2024, 11:07:10 AM2 trades$45,4721 min
11/6/2024, 12:08:22 PM1 trades$1,5900 min
11/6/2024, 12:58:31 PM2 trades$50,7810 min
11/6/2024, 1:04:23 PM3 trades$114,7844 min
11/6/2024, 2:06:08 PM1 trades$52,9520 min
11/6/2024, 2:28:39 PM1 trades$149,8500 min
11/6/2024, 2:34:57 PM4 trades$441,2625 min
11/6/2024, 2:48:46 PM5 trades$55,2483 min
11/6/2024, 3:19:33 PM12 trades$305,5481 min
11/7/2024, 12:40:29 AM1 trades$3900 min
11/7/2024, 1:58:54 AM1 trades$4,9500 min
11/7/2024, 10:13:28 PM1 trades$5000 min
11/7/2024, 10:22:06 PM1 trades$2000 min
11/8/2024, 5:06:15 PM1 trades$200 min
11/9/2024, 3:57:10 AM1 trades$1,4860 min
11/9/2024, 4:11:30 AM2 trades$1,1312 min
11/9/2024, 4:20:56 AM1 trades$3930 min
11/9/2024, 6:32:08 AM2 trades$89,2794 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
07-20
11-21
12-01
12-14
12-25
01-04
02-09

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
2.1% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 11.9/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.2 br/event