Polydata
Wry-Maiden

@Wry-Maiden

#2,716,31883

0x10e8985ba1adb162c17dd81affe9531c19c1fdaa

637d· 496 markets · 1051 tradesVol: $46,198 @0xHolmes_X2026-07-05T10:07
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

83
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 85%20/20
Profit Factor 5.99x15/15
Sharpe 0.4018/15
Sortino 0.2533/10
EV $+3.67410/10
HHI 9338/10
Profit Days 89%10/10
DD/Peak 13%10/10

Summary

Wry-Maiden is a moderately active Polymarket trader with 1,051 trades executed over 336 days, covering 495 different markets. Despite a high win rate of 81.5% and a strong profit factor of 7.60, Wry-Maiden currently holds a net PnL of -$348.07 and ranks #2,716,318 globally. Their portfolio value stands at $123.25, and their Smart Score of 83/100 indicates very good trading skills. The equity trend appears stable, with no prolonged drawdown periods.

Wry-Maiden demonstrates a preference for diverse markets, with a slight focus on weather-related contracts (3%). Their trading style is consistent and manual, as reflected by a low Bot Score of 15/100. The trader’s risk profile seems moderate, balancing a 30% sell rate with a healthy Sharpe ratio of 0.40. Timing-wise, Wry-Maiden likely employs a sniper-like approach, aiming for high-probability bets and capitalizing on streaks, supported by badges such as Sniper and Win Streak.

Strengths for Wry-Maiden include strong consistency, a high win rate, and an ability to avoid extended drawdowns, making them a disciplined trader on Polymarket. Potential risks involve the negative net PnL despite good metrics, suggesting possible small-margin trades or missed opportunities for scaling profits. The flat equity trend also indicates limited growth potential at present.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

6
Sniper
Win Rate 85%
Lottery Player
32% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
65% entries <$0.50
Win Streak
32 wins in a row
Consistent
79/89 days
Cool Head
DD 13%

Categories

8
SPORTS#1,675,858$-212Vol: $16,134
🏛️ POLITICS#1,462,882$-64Vol: $13,078
🎭 CULTURE#32,120$45Vol: $9,120
💰 FINANCE#585,515$-21Vol: $3,500
CRYPTO#1,301,197$-34Vol: $2,217
🌤️ WEATHER#265,029$-41Vol: $1,498
📈 ECONOMICS#584,409$-10Vol: $478
💻 TECH#155,054$-0Vol: $102

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-348
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$46,198
Total Redeem
$1,334
Portfolio
$123
Predictions
496
total markets
Trades
741B / 310S
Daily Volume
$28
Account Age
637d
since Oct 8, 2024

Periods

#2
Today
$-0
Vol: $65
Week
$-47
Vol: $65
Month
$-74
Vol: $3,023
All Time
$-348
Vol: $46,198

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
88%
197W / 27L events
Realized PnL
$1,304
Win Rate
82%
203W / 41L
Profit Factor
7.6x
Avg Win
$6
Avg Loss
$-4

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $312 (28.5% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 202$154
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026$114
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 202$45
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Kolkata Knight Riders$37
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-07?$36
Canada vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5$35
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 202$31
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Gujarat Titans$28
Will there be 18–20 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?$27
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5$26

Top Losers

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?$-115
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings$-29
T20 World Cup: India vs West Indies$-5
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET$-2
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET$-1
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET$-1
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-02-03?$-1
50m views on a MrBeast video in the first day by March 31?$-1
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$-1
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$-1

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.401
Sortino
0.253
HHI
933
Moderate
EV per $1
$3.674
Kelly %
79.1%
Half-Kelly
39.6%
Top-1 market
29.7%
Top-5 markets
38.6%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
6.3
Moderate
Markets / Day
3.0
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
15:00 UTC
Median Gap
4.7m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.6h
between trades
Night Trading
5%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.21
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
3 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.0

Bot Detection

#6
15
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 280s — typical for humanSize CV 2.21 — diverse, typical for human5% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.85 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 15:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.5
Single entry
<=1
388 entries
<=2
451 entries
<=5
484 entries
<=10
494 entries
<=20
494 entries
<=50
495 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)32.1%
Mid (20-55c)39.7%
High (>55c)28.2%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 86.2%

Other$955
Madrid$42
New York City$27
Houston$19
Chicago$18
San Francisco$13
Los Angeles$11
Miami$9
Paris$8
Toronto$5
Seattle$5
Atlanta$2
Seoul$0
London$0
Milan$0
Lucknow$-22

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.3
Events covered
374

Single bracket

<=1
333 brackets
<=2
356 brackets
<=3
363 brackets
<=4
367 brackets
<=5
369 brackets
<=8
371 brackets
>8
3 brackets

Sessions

#12
1/19/2026, 5:27:52 PM1 trades$30 min
1/28/2026, 7:29:48 PM1 trades$50 min
2/1/2026, 2:04:54 PM1 trades$50 min
2/1/2026, 2:42:02 PM1 trades$50 min
2/1/2026, 2:49:14 PM1 trades$50 min
2/2/2026, 8:05:22 PM2 trades$105 min
2/3/2026, 3:22:02 PM4 trades$177 min
2/4/2026, 7:50:59 PM2 trades$81 min
2/5/2026, 8:17:15 PM1 trades$30 min
2/7/2026, 2:01:25 PM3 trades$56 min
2/7/2026, 2:15:05 PM6 trades$137 min
2/7/2026, 2:31:55 PM3 trades$93 min
2/7/2026, 2:46:23 PM1 trades$50 min
2/7/2026, 3:02:39 PM2 trades$204 min
2/7/2026, 3:13:05 PM1 trades$200 min
2/7/2026, 3:18:35 PM2 trades$382 min
2/7/2026, 6:41:33 PM2 trades$10 min
2/8/2026, 7:08:09 AM2 trades$40 min
2/8/2026, 7:15:15 AM3 trades$95 min
2/8/2026, 7:30:13 AM1 trades$50 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
02-21
03-16
04-09
05-15
06-23
08-03

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
3.4% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
29.5% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.5/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.3 br/event