Polydata
Wry-Maiden

@Wry-Maiden

#2,503,31587

0x10e8985ba1adb162c17dd81affe9531c19c1fdaa

593d· 393 markets · 829 tradesVol: $40,794 @0xHolmes_X2026-05-24T09:04
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

87
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 68%19/20
Profit Factor 16.27x15/15
Sharpe 0.4589/15
Sortino 18.58510/10
EV $+14.19010/10
HHI 17164/10
Profit Days 74%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Wry-Maiden is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, with 829 trades executed across 382 markets over 336 days. Despite a high Smart Score of 87/100 indicating elite trading skill, their net PnL currently stands at -$310.15, placing them at rank #2,503,315 globally. The trader has maintained a stable portfolio value of $66.76, with a total trading volume of $40,794, reflecting consistent engagement over time.

Wry-Maiden’s trading style leans toward a contrarian and sniper approach, as suggested by their badges and a 66.8% win rate combined with a high profit factor of 4.41. They seem to favor less frequent selling, with a sell percentage of 28%, and show low exposure to weather markets (3%). Their Sharpe ratio of 0.46 indicates moderate risk-adjusted returns, while a max drawdown duration of zero days suggests disciplined risk management and quick recovery from losses.

The key strengths of Wry-Maiden lie in their consistent performance, high win rate, and ability to maintain stable equity over a long period. However, the negative net PnL and flat equity trend highlight potential challenges in converting winning trades into overall profitability. Additionally, the low Bot Score confirms manual trading, which might limit scalability but allows for adaptive decision-making in dynamic Polymarket conditions.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

6
Sniper
Win Rate 68%
Lottery Player
34% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
68% entries <$0.50
Win Streak
30 wins in a row
Consistent
59/80 days
Cool Head
DD 0%

Categories

7
🏛️ POLITICS#1,412,354$-64Vol: $13,078
SPORTS#1,547,641$-207Vol: $12,113
🎭 CULTURE#31,006$45Vol: $8,983
💰 FINANCE#567,954$-31Vol: $3,316
CRYPTO#1,219,621$-30Vol: $2,192
🌤️ WEATHER#228,705$-13Vol: $634
📈 ECONOMICS#564,498$-10Vol: $478

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-310
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$40,794
Total Redeem
$1,216
Portfolio
$67
Predictions
393
total markets
Trades
598B / 231S
Daily Volume
$20
Account Age
593d
since Oct 8, 2024

Periods

#2
Today
$0
Vol: $0
Week
$-64
Vol: $0
Month
$-86
Vol: $6,933
All Time
$-310
Vol: $40,794

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
72%
157W / 60L events
Realized PnL
$938
Win Rate
67%
159W / 75L
Profit Factor
4.41x
Avg Win
$6
Avg Loss
$-3

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $312 (44% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 202$154
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026$114
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 202$45
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Kolkata Knight Riders$37
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-07?$36
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 202$31
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Gujarat Titans$27
Will there be 18–20 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?$27
Will Girona FC win on 2026-03-14?$19
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals$15

Top Losers

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?$-115
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings$-29
T20 World Cup: India vs West Indies$-5
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET$-2
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET$-1
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET$-1
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026$-1
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 202$-1
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET$-1
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET$-1

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.458
Sortino
18.585
HHI
1716
Moderate
EV per $1
$14.190
Kelly %
62.3%
Half-Kelly
31.1%
Top-1 market
40.8%
Top-5 markets
51.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
6.7
Moderate
Markets / Day
3.1
Active Hours
20/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
14:00 UTC
Median Gap
3.6m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.5h
between trades
Night Trading
4%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.35
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
3 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.1

Bot Detection

#6
5
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 218s — typical for humanSize CV 2.35 — diverse, typical for human3% at night — normal sleep pattern20/24 hours — extended daySession CV 0.77 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 14:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.6
Single entry
<=1
291 entries
<=2
343 entries
<=5
373 entries
<=10
381 entries
<=20
381 entries
<=50
382 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)33.9%
Mid (20-55c)40%
High (>55c)26.1%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 89.6%

Other$575
Madrid$42
New York City$27
Houston$19
Chicago$18
San Francisco$13
Los Angeles$10
Miami$8
Paris$8
Toronto$5
Seattle$5
Atlanta$2
Seoul$0
Milan$0
London$-2
Lucknow$-23

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.3
Events covered
305

Single bracket

<=1
281 brackets
<=2
293 brackets
<=3
295 brackets
<=4
298 brackets
<=5
300 brackets
<=8
302 brackets
>8
3 brackets

Sessions

#12
1/19/2026, 5:27:52 PM1 trades$30 min
1/28/2026, 7:29:48 PM1 trades$50 min
2/1/2026, 2:04:54 PM1 trades$50 min
2/1/2026, 2:42:02 PM1 trades$50 min
2/1/2026, 2:49:14 PM1 trades$50 min
2/2/2026, 8:05:22 PM2 trades$105 min
2/3/2026, 3:22:02 PM4 trades$177 min
2/4/2026, 7:50:59 PM2 trades$81 min
2/5/2026, 8:17:15 PM1 trades$30 min
2/7/2026, 2:01:25 PM3 trades$56 min
2/7/2026, 2:15:05 PM6 trades$137 min
2/7/2026, 2:31:55 PM3 trades$93 min
2/7/2026, 2:46:23 PM2 trades$71 min
2/7/2026, 2:57:25 PM5 trades$759 min
2/7/2026, 3:13:05 PM1 trades$200 min
2/7/2026, 3:18:35 PM2 trades$382 min
2/7/2026, 6:41:33 PM2 trades$10 min
2/8/2026, 7:08:09 AM2 trades$40 min
2/8/2026, 7:15:15 AM3 trades$95 min
2/8/2026, 7:30:13 AM1 trades$50 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
02-17
03-12
04-02
04-22
05-20
12-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
2.6% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
27.9% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.6/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.3 br/event