Polydata
Yellowish-Expert

@Yellowish-Expert

#15395

0x4a38e6e0330c2463fb5ac2188a620634039abfe8

565d· 967 markets · 13266 tradesVol: $32,690,3652026-06-14T01:17
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

95
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 64%17/20
Profit Factor 5.80x15/15
Sharpe 0.71213/15
Sortino 2.03810/10
EV $+4.49010/10
HHI 16510/10
Profit Days 81%10/10
DD/Peak 3%10/10

Summary

Yellowish-Expert is a highly active trader on Polymarket, ranking #153 globally with a net profit and loss of $921,623.89 over 396 days and more than 13,000 trades. Their smart score is an elite 95/100, reflecting strong performance and decision-making. Despite a large trading volume of over $32 million across 385 markets, their portfolio currently holds no open positions, indicating a fully realized profit stance.

This trader favors a diversified approach, engaging in a wide range of markets but notably avoids weather markets entirely. With a win rate of 58.5% and a profit factor of 0.13, Yellowish-Expert shows a moderate risk profile and a contrarian style, as suggested by the badges earned. They tend to sell only 14% of their positions, implying a preference for holding or dollar-cost averaging strategies. Their Sharpe ratio of 0.71 indicates a decent balance between risk and return, while their trading style blends both manual and automated elements, given a semi-bot score of 55.

Yellowish-Expert’s strengths lie in consistent profitability and an upward equity trend, supported by disciplined risk management reflected in zero-day max drawdown duration. However, their relatively low profit factor may signal tight margins or frequent small losses. The semi-bot strategy could also introduce execution risks if not closely monitored. Overall, Yellowish-Expert demonstrates a robust and methodical approach to Polymarket trading, with a focus on steady growth and risk control.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

10
Sniper
Win Rate 64%
Profitable
PnL $+921,624
Contrarian
56% entries <$0.50
DCA Master
avg 29.7 entries/market
Hedger
avg 3.7 brackets/event
Win Streak
9 wins in a row
Whale
$3,902,638
Consistent
84/104 days
High Roller
$9,855/day
Cool Head
DD 3%

Categories

3
CRYPTO#11$903,992Vol: $31,989,336
SPORTS#15,409$2,401Vol: $12,004
📈 ECONOMICS#16,511$50Vol: $5,000

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$921,624
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$32,690,365
Total Redeem
$481,654
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
967
total markets
Trades
11453B / 1813S
Daily Volume
$9,855
Account Age
565d
since Nov 25, 2024

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
70%
113W / 49L events
Realized PnL
$2,536,261
Win Rate
58%
114W / 81L
Profit Factor
0.13x
Avg Win
$1,139
Avg Loss
$-12,417

Top Winners

Bitcoin above $116K on August 29?$16,416
Solana Up or Down on September 1?$6,637
Solana above $200 on August 25?$5,911
Will Ethereum reach $4900 in August?$5,655
Bitcoin above $112K on August 25?$5,088
Will Ethereum dip to $4200 September 1–7?$4,749
Will the price of Solana be above $204 on September 4 at 12PM ET?$3,988
Will the price of Solana be above $200 on September 1 at 4PM ET?$3,915
Will Ethereum reach $4500 September 1–7?$3,758
Will Ethereum reach $4600 September 1–7?$3,670

Top Losers

Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31?$-159,085
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on August 17$-122,733
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31?$-95,768
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in August?$-59,826
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31?$-50,989
Bitcoin above $116K on August 25?$-42,223
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $112K on August 3 at 5PM E$-38,653
Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31?$-32,409
Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by December 31?$-31,835
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $120K on August 12 at 5PM $-26,143

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.712
Sortino
2.038
HHI
165
Diversified
EV per $1
$4.490
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
6.3%
Top-5 markets
20.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
53.5
Very active
Markets / Day
1.6
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
16:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.9m
between trades
Avg Gap
14.7m
between trades
Night Trading
16%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.35
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.4

Bot Detection

#6
55
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
MEDIUM
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 114s — typical for humanSize CV 2.36 — diverse, typical for human16% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.97 — human randomness53 trades/day — mass trading496 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 16:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
29.7
Heavy DCA
<=1
49 entries
<=2
84 entries
<=5
138 entries
<=10
189 entries
<=20
237 entries
<=50
309 entries
>50
76 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)24.1%
Mid (20-55c)36.1%
High (>55c)39.9%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 51.2%

Other$-875,926

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
3.7
Events covered
103

Multi-bracket hedger

<=1
19 brackets
<=2
37 brackets
<=3
53 brackets
<=4
79 brackets
<=5
89 brackets
<=8
95 brackets
>8
8 brackets

Sessions

#12
12/30/2024, 11:27:20 PM2 trades$32 min
12/30/2024, 11:55:35 PM1 trades$30 min
1/3/2025, 4:31:25 PM1 trades$710 min
1/4/2025, 12:49:45 PM1 trades$6400 min
1/6/2025, 9:19:16 PM4 trades$2,8460 min
1/10/2025, 5:49:01 PM1 trades$60 min
1/10/2025, 11:34:47 PM1 trades$4180 min
1/11/2025, 9:20:52 PM1 trades$210 min
1/15/2025, 7:48:23 PM1 trades$8000 min
1/15/2025, 8:01:04 PM1 trades$5500 min
1/15/2025, 8:16:34 PM1 trades$240 min
1/16/2025, 3:30:34 PM1 trades$1360 min
1/17/2025, 1:35:30 AM1 trades$2600 min
1/17/2025, 8:54:25 AM1 trades$2700 min
1/17/2025, 8:27:56 PM2 trades$1592 min
1/17/2025, 8:49:34 PM1 trades$1,1400 min
1/18/2025, 4:17:11 AM1 trades$2440 min
1/18/2025, 9:54:10 AM1 trades$360 min
1/19/2025, 2:04:44 PM5 trades$1,07010 min
1/19/2025, 2:20:34 PM1 trades$90 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
05-29
06-23
07-14
08-02
08-19
10-01

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
13.7% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 29.7/mkt
Hedging
MULTI
avg 3.7 br/event