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Yellowish-Expert

@Yellowish-Expert

#19995

0x4a38e6e0330c2463fb5ac2188a620634039abfe8

610d· 967 markets · 13266 tradesVol: $32,690,3652026-07-21T00:22
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

95
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 64%17/20
Profit Factor 5.80x15/15
Sharpe 0.71213/15
Sortino 2.03810/10
EV $+4.49010/10
HHI 16510/10
Profit Days 81%10/10
DD/Peak 3%10/10

Summary

Yellowish-Expert is an elite-ranked trader on Polymarket, holding the #199 position globally with a net profit of $921,623.89. Over 396 active days, they have executed 13,266 trades across 385 markets, generating a total trading volume exceeding $32 million. Their smart score of 95/100 reflects strong analytical capability, while a Sharpe ratio of 0.71 suggests moderate risk-adjusted returns. Despite a high level of activity, Yellowish-Expert currently holds no open portfolio positions.

The trader demonstrates a preference for diverse markets, avoiding weather-related ones entirely, and exhibits a relatively low sell percentage at 14%, indicating a tendency to hold positions longer. Their risk profile seems balanced, with a win rate of 58.5% and a profit factor of 0.13, which is unusually low and may hint at higher losses relative to gains. Yellowish-Expert’s timing is consistent, with no recorded drawdown duration, suggesting disciplined risk management and steady market engagement. Their semi-automated approach combines bot signals with manual decisions, enhancing adaptability.

Yellowish-Expert’s main strengths lie in their sniper-like precision, contrarian insights, and disciplined hedging strategies, which contribute to an upward equity trend. However, the low profit factor and modest Sharpe ratio indicate potential vulnerabilities in trade profitability and volatility management. While their large volume and diversified market exposure are advantageous, continuous monitoring of risk metrics is advisable given the mixed indicators. Overall, Yellowish-Expert remains a prominent and resilient Polymarket trader with a sophisticated approach.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

10
Sniper
Win Rate 64%
Profitable
PnL $+921,624
Contrarian
56% entries <$0.50
DCA Master
avg 29.7 entries/market
Hedger
avg 3.7 brackets/event
Win Streak
9 wins in a row
Whale
$3,909,973
Consistent
84/104 days
High Roller
$9,874/day
Cool Head
DD 3%

Categories

3
CRYPTO#12$903,992Vol: $31,989,336
SPORTS#17,908$2,401Vol: $12,004
📈 ECONOMICS#17,151$50Vol: $5,000

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$921,624
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$32,690,365
Total Redeem
$481,654
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
967
total markets
Trades
11451B / 1815S
Daily Volume
$9,874
Account Age
610d
since Nov 25, 2024

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
70%
113W / 49L events
Realized PnL
$2,536,261
Win Rate
58%
114W / 81L
Profit Factor
0.13x
Avg Win
$1,139
Avg Loss
$-12,493

Top Winners

Bitcoin above $116K on August 29?$16,416
Solana Up or Down on September 1?$6,637
Solana above $200 on August 25?$5,911
Will Ethereum reach $4900 in August?$5,655
Bitcoin above $112K on August 25?$5,088
Will Ethereum dip to $4200 September 1–7?$4,749
Will the price of Solana be above $204 on September 4 at 12PM ET?$3,988
Will the price of Solana be above $200 on September 1 at 4PM ET?$3,915
Will Ethereum reach $4500 September 1–7?$3,758
Will Ethereum reach $4600 September 1–7?$3,670

Top Losers

Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31?$-159,085
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on August 17$-122,733
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31?$-95,768
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in August?$-58,703
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31?$-57,957
Bitcoin above $116K on August 25?$-42,223
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $112K on August 3 at 5PM E$-38,653
Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31?$-32,409
Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by December 31?$-31,835
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $120K on August 12 at 5PM $-26,143

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.712
Sortino
2.038
HHI
165
Diversified
EV per $1
$4.490
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
6.3%
Top-5 markets
20.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
53.5
Very active
Markets / Day
1.6
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
16:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.9m
between trades
Avg Gap
14.7m
between trades
Night Trading
16%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.36
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.4

Bot Detection

#6
55
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
MEDIUM
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 114s — typical for humanSize CV 2.36 — diverse, typical for human16% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.97 — human randomness53 trades/day — mass trading496 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 16:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
29.7
Heavy DCA
<=1
49 entries
<=2
84 entries
<=5
138 entries
<=10
189 entries
<=20
237 entries
<=50
309 entries
>50
76 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)24.1%
Mid (20-55c)36.1%
High (>55c)39.9%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 51.3%

Other$-882,017

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
3.7
Events covered
103

Multi-bracket hedger

<=1
19 brackets
<=2
37 brackets
<=3
53 brackets
<=4
79 brackets
<=5
89 brackets
<=8
95 brackets
>8
8 brackets

Sessions

#12
12/30/2024, 11:27:20 PM2 trades$32 min
12/30/2024, 11:55:35 PM1 trades$30 min
1/3/2025, 4:31:25 PM1 trades$710 min
1/4/2025, 12:49:45 PM1 trades$6400 min
1/6/2025, 9:19:16 PM4 trades$2,8460 min
1/10/2025, 5:49:01 PM1 trades$60 min
1/10/2025, 11:34:47 PM1 trades$4180 min
1/11/2025, 9:20:52 PM1 trades$210 min
1/15/2025, 7:48:23 PM1 trades$8000 min
1/15/2025, 8:01:04 PM1 trades$5500 min
1/15/2025, 8:16:34 PM1 trades$240 min
1/16/2025, 3:30:34 PM1 trades$1360 min
1/17/2025, 1:35:30 AM1 trades$2600 min
1/17/2025, 8:54:25 AM1 trades$2700 min
1/17/2025, 8:27:56 PM2 trades$1592 min
1/17/2025, 8:49:34 PM1 trades$1,1400 min
1/18/2025, 4:17:11 AM1 trades$2440 min
1/18/2025, 9:54:10 AM1 trades$360 min
1/19/2025, 2:04:44 PM5 trades$1,07010 min
1/19/2025, 2:20:34 PM1 trades$90 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
05-29
06-23
07-14
08-02
08-19
10-01

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
13.7% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 29.7/mkt
Hedging
MULTI
avg 3.7 br/event