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@alwaysfade

#3,86014

0xe5b70fd855af9258d9463992e4f1ed7987905ee3

246d· 143 markets · 7683 tradesVol: $6,484,8992026-06-27T07:58
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

14
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 31%0/20
Profit Factor 0.88x1/15
HHI 44810/10
Profit Days 39%2/10
DD/Peak 165%0/10

Summary

Alwaysfade is an active Polymarket trader with 7,683 trades across 143 markets over 430 days. Despite a relatively low rank of #3860 on the global PnL leaderboard, alwaysfade has generated a net PnL of $40,833.75 on a total trading volume of nearly $6.5 million. Their portfolio value currently stands at $6,859.27, with an upward equity trend. However, their Smart Score of 14/100 indicates a beginner level, and the Sharpe ratio of -0.05 suggests negative risk-adjusted returns.

This trader appears to follow a contrarian style, as reflected in their badges and low win rate of 24%. Alwaysfade shows a tendency to hold positions long-term, evidenced by a 0% sell rate and the "Diamond Hands" badge. They do not engage with weather markets and maintain a low risk profile with minimal max drawdown duration. Their profit factor of 0.23 suggests losses outweigh gains per trade, and the Bot Score of 35 hints at manual trading with rapid interface use.

The strengths of alwaysfade lie in their persistence and ability to grow equity over time despite setbacks, supported by a notable win streak and profitability badge. However, the low win rate, negative risk-adjusted performance, and beginner Smart Score highlight significant risks. Alwaysfade’s contrarian and long-hold approach may lead to volatile outcomes, requiring close monitoring for potential drawdowns despite current upward trends.

Badges

6
Profitable
PnL $+40,834
Contrarian
80% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
0% sell
Win Streak
6 wins in a row
Whale
$2,318,541
High Roller
$5,392/day

Categories

4
SPORTS#1,420$37,712Vol: $6,131,515
🏛️ POLITICS#1,548,721$-300Vol: $199,907
🎭 CULTURE#2,271$2,972Vol: $148,000
CRYPTO#43,518$450Vol: $5,476

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$40,834
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$6,484,899
Total Redeem
$514,500
Portfolio
$6,859
Predictions
143
total markets
Trades
7677B / 6S
Daily Volume
$5,392
Account Age
246d
since Oct 28, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$5
Vol: $0
Week
$109
Vol: $0
Month
$243,049
Vol: $3,094,168
All Time
$40,834
Vol: $6,484,899

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
47%
25W / 28L events
Realized PnL
$737,712
Win Rate
24%
12W / 38L
Profit Factor
0.23x
Avg Win
$21,786
Avg Loss
$-29,645

Top Winners

Knicks vs. Spurs$201,897
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline$26,500
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5$10,400
Spread: Spurs (-5.5)$10,200
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?$4,813
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?$3,650
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$2,917
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5$444
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?$338
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outco$257

Top Losers

Spurs vs. Knicks$-295,733
Spurs vs. Knicks$-231,476
Knicks vs. Spurs$-83,673
Hawks vs. Knicks$-69,000
Pistons vs. Magic$-44,352
Spread: Spurs (-4.5)$-42,000
Spurs vs. Thunder$-29,400
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves$-28,776
Rockets vs. Lakers$-25,653
Spread: Pistons (-3.5)$-25,500

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.045
Sortino
-0.050
HHI
448
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.187
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
14%
Top-5 markets
37.2%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
33.6
Active
Markets / Day
0.6
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
23:00 UTC
Median Gap
28s
between trades
Avg Gap
6.0m
between trades
Night Trading
21%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
10.74
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
7 min
Avg Trades / Session
7.9

Bot Detection

#6
35
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 28s — typical for humanSize CV 10.74 — diverse, typical for human21% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.03 — human randomness34 trades/day — suspiciously high

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 23:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
53.7
Heavy DCA
<=1
22 entries
<=2
32 entries
<=5
45 entries
<=10
56 entries
<=20
77 entries
<=50
106 entries
>50
37 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)16.5%
Mid (20-55c)70.7%
High (>55c)12.8%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 25.7%

Houston$0
Toronto$0
Denver$-5,600
Other$-859,481

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
2.7
Events covered
53

Moderate coverage

<=1
33 brackets
<=2
40 brackets
<=3
43 brackets
<=4
46 brackets
<=5
49 brackets
<=8
50 brackets
>8
3 brackets

Sessions

#12
10/28/2025, 2:23:21 PM18 trades$16626 min
10/28/2025, 2:55:43 PM17 trades$86827 min
10/28/2025, 3:29:19 PM29 trades$1,46839 min
10/28/2025, 4:16:53 PM3 trades$295 min
10/28/2025, 5:11:11 PM48 trades$7,40017 min
10/28/2025, 6:24:17 PM1 trades$4,2000 min
10/28/2025, 6:34:51 PM1 trades$6,8000 min
10/28/2025, 6:49:01 PM1 trades$7,2000 min
10/28/2025, 7:34:41 PM2 trades$2172 min
10/28/2025, 7:42:05 PM1 trades$110 min
10/28/2025, 7:48:27 PM6 trades$88 min
10/28/2025, 8:02:03 PM3 trades$204 min
10/28/2025, 8:20:59 PM14 trades$1,65523 min
10/28/2025, 8:49:09 PM5 trades$53 min
10/28/2025, 8:59:03 PM9 trades$22,0858 min
10/29/2025, 4:31:49 PM33 trades$14,43641 min
10/29/2025, 5:18:59 PM2 trades$302 min
10/29/2025, 5:32:01 PM1 trades$6790 min
10/29/2025, 8:52:31 PM3 trades$3,5100 min
10/29/2025, 9:00:01 PM3 trades$1,5183 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
10-28
04-21
04-30
05-10
06-04
06-16
07-01
01-01

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0.1% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 53.7/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 2.7 br/event