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avenger

@avenger

#2,925,08129

0xd4f904ecac0ff22ac6601de6b972d4f8b6b4f619

932d· 1083 markets · 8469 tradesVol: $12,353,4062026-06-27T02:01
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

29
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 99%20/20
Profit Factor 0.41x0/15
HHI 11747/10
Profit Days 38%2/10

Summary

Avenger is an experienced but currently underperforming Polymarket trader with a global PnL rank of #2,925,081. Over 1,084 days, avenger has executed 8,469 trades across 359 markets, accumulating a total trading volume exceeding $12 million. Despite the high activity, avenger’s net PnL stands at a significant loss of approximately $1.48 million, with a below-average Smart Score of 29/100 and a negative Sharpe ratio of -0.17, indicating poor risk-adjusted returns.

Avenger tends to adopt a high-frequency trading style, with a preference for diverse markets but no activity in weather-related contracts. The trader’s win rate is 46%, and a profit factor of 0.41 suggests losses outweigh gains. Avenger’s portfolio shows an upward equity trend, implying some recovery or recent positive momentum. The sell percentage is relatively low at 20%, and badges such as Sniper and DCA Master indicate a tactical approach focusing on timing and averaging down, though the bot score suggests these trades are likely executed manually.

The key strength for avenger lies in the high volume and consistent market engagement, which could provide valuable data-driven insights and adaptation opportunities on Polymarket. However, the substantial net loss, negative risk metrics, and below-average Smart Score highlight significant risks. Without improved risk management or strategy adjustment, avenger’s current trajectory may continue to underperform despite the upward equity trend.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

5
Sniper
Win Rate 99%
DCA Master
avg 18.8 entries/market
Win Streak
47 wins in a row
Whale
$4,299,757
High Roller
$3,967/day

Categories

8
CRYPTO#1,609,442$-25,292Vol: $4,771,487
SPORTS#1,759,584$-1,611,980Vol: $3,104,394
🏛️ POLITICS#281$176,002Vol: $912,129
🎭 CULTURE#802,086$-36,909Vol: $891,144
💻 TECH#33$35,538Vol: $560,691
📈 ECONOMICS#639,059$-75Vol: $200,225
💰 FINANCE#622,052$-217Vol: $20,449
📢 MENTIONS#2,198$486Vol: $2,761

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-1,477,346
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$12,353,406
Total Redeem
$243,321
Portfolio
$47,712
Predictions
1083
total markets
Trades
6737B / 1732S
Daily Volume
$3,967
Account Age
932d
since Dec 13, 2023

Periods

#2
Today
$86
Vol: $0
Week
$210
Vol: $0
Month
$-1,605,239
Vol: $2,624,674
All Time
$-1,477,346
Vol: $12,353,406

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
99%
189W / 2L events
Realized PnL
$556,893
Win Rate
46%
139W / 163L
Profit Factor
0.41x
Avg Win
$3,320
Avg Loss
$-6,921

Top Winners

Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?$268,622
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A$75,211
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud$43,978
Will Bianca Censori be the #1 searched person on Google this year$11,927
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025?$10,281
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?$5,803
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5$5,441
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?$3,829
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Nemesis (BO3)$3,092
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Arthur Fils$2,919

Top Losers

Will Pope Leo XIV rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of $-164,533
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 14 to November 2$-61,053
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 28 to December 5$-50,656
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner$-42,470
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March?$-35,762
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 21 to November 2$-33,459
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Yakutou Brothers (BO3)$-31,770
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner$-28,745
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Bublik$-24,251
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November?$-22,629

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.171
Sortino
-0.221
HHI
1174
Moderate
EV per $1
$-0.229
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
29.5%
Top-5 markets
59.9%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
35.4
Active
Markets / Day
1.5
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
17:00 UTC
Median Gap
30s
between trades
Avg Gap
24.2m
between trades
Night Trading
12%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
5.90
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.4

Bot Detection

#6
30
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 30s — typical for humanSize CV 5.90 — diverse, typical for human12% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.21 — human randomness35 trades/day — suspiciously high

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 17:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
18.8
Heavy DCA
<=1
62 entries
<=2
87 entries
<=5
152 entries
<=10
223 entries
<=20
283 entries
<=50
337 entries
>50
22 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)2.9%
Mid (20-55c)25.4%
High (>55c)71.7%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 52.3%

Paris$2,127
Milan$-859
Madrid$-1,777
Netanyahu$-10,597
Up or Down$-12,468
Other$-643,110

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.4
Events covered
256

Single bracket

<=1
199 brackets
<=2
234 brackets
<=3
246 brackets
<=4
252 brackets
<=5
253 brackets
<=8
255 brackets
>8
1 brackets

Sessions

#12
10/19/2025, 2:59:05 PM1 trades$1860 min
10/20/2025, 1:57:11 PM1 trades$4,7000 min
10/21/2025, 5:24:04 AM1 trades$1,8600 min
10/21/2025, 7:15:36 AM1 trades$2760 min
10/21/2025, 8:39:58 AM1 trades$1,8600 min
11/2/2025, 8:55:29 PM1 trades$1580 min
11/4/2025, 6:25:13 PM1 trades$670 min
11/5/2025, 3:02:07 AM1 trades$450 min
11/6/2025, 12:58:11 PM2 trades$370 min
11/6/2025, 1:10:39 PM1 trades$480 min
11/6/2025, 1:17:33 PM3 trades$670 min
11/6/2025, 1:44:53 PM1 trades$820 min
11/6/2025, 1:53:21 PM1 trades$260 min
11/6/2025, 2:02:35 PM1 trades$350 min
11/7/2025, 5:23:33 PM1 trades$410 min
11/7/2025, 5:29:59 PM2 trades$392 min
11/7/2025, 6:23:21 PM1 trades$780 min
11/7/2025, 8:28:47 PM1 trades$700 min
11/7/2025, 9:11:27 PM1 trades$1120 min
11/7/2025, 9:59:57 PM1 trades$70 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
11-11
12-08
01-01
03-11
04-22
05-15
06-13

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
20.5% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 18.8/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.4 br/event