Polydata
badatmath_

@badatmath_

#8,15812

0x8fbd7cf5f806f563080864694415829f7229a959

159d· 8421 markets · 31199 tradesVol: $1,155,9532026-06-17T14:18
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

12
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 16%0/20
Profit Factor 0.81x0/15
HHI 610/10
Profit Days 36%1/10
DD/Peak 1229%0/10

Summary

badatmath_ is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, ranked #8158 globally by net profit and holding a net PnL of $16,995.86. With 31,199 trades across 4,338 markets over 139 days, this trader has generated a total volume exceeding $1.15 million. Despite the high activity, badatmath_ has a relatively low smart score of 12/100, indicating beginner-level trading skills, and currently holds a portfolio valued at $12,454.24.

The trader specializes exclusively in weather markets, engaging in automated trading strategies as reflected by an 80/100 bot score. badatmath_ exhibits a contrarian and dollar-cost averaging style, consistently holding positions without selling, evidenced by a 0% sell rate and badges like Diamond Hands and DCA Master. The risk profile appears moderate given a profit factor of 2.79 and a win rate just above 50%, but a negative Sharpe ratio (-0.14) and a downward equity trend suggest challenges in managing volatility.

badatmath_’s strengths lie in automated, high-volume trading focused on niche weather markets with disciplined holding patterns. However, the declining equity curve and negative risk-adjusted returns pose concerns about long-term sustainability. The absence of any drawdown duration indicates frequent portfolio resets, which may reflect periods of underperformance. Continuous monitoring is advisable for traders observing badatmath_ on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

10
Profitable
PnL $+16,996
Lottery Player
61% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
87% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
0% sell
DCA Master
avg 7.2 entries/market
Weather Pro
100% weather
Bot
Score 80/100
Hedger
avg 2.5 brackets/event
Win Streak
10 wins in a row
Whale
$81,519

Categories

3
🌤️ WEATHER#84$17,602Vol: $1,064,583
CRYPTO#1,512,384$-546Vol: $88,162
SPORTS#275,796$7Vol: $2,099

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$16,996
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$1,155,953
Total Redeem
$6,731
Portfolio
$12,454
Predictions
8421
total markets
Trades
31156B / 43S
Daily Volume
$586
Account Age
159d
since Jan 9, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$5,188
Vol: $68
Week
$3,856
Vol: $172,318
Month
$14,468
Vol: $801,756
All Time
$16,996
Vol: $1,155,953

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
18%
316W / 1438L events
Realized PnL
$34,587
Win Rate
54%
92W / 79L
Profit Factor
2.79x
Avg Win
$69
Avg Loss
$-29

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $1,353 (33.3% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on$567
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June$435
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16?$350
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16?$339
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on Jun$337
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15?$261
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 17?$257
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16?$250
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F $243
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16?$232

Top Losers

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 16?$-140
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13?$-116
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F $-106
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June $-76
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14?$-76
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14?$-76
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16?$-71
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June $-70
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on Jun$-69
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on Jun$-62

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.139
Sortino
-0.166
HHI
6
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.157
Kelly %
32.7%
Half-Kelly
16.3%
Top-1 market
0.3%
Top-5 markets
1.2%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
568.8
Very active
Markets / Day
79.1
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
5:00 UTC
Median Gap
27s
between trades
Avg Gap
2.3m
between trades
Night Trading
30%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.43
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.7

Bot Detection

#6
80
BOT (automated trading)HIGH probability

8 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
HIGH
Median gap 27s — typical for humanSize CV 1.43 — diverse, typical for human30% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.99 — human randomness569 trades/day — automation79 markets/day — mass coverage4491 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 5:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
7.2
Active DCA
<=1
971 entries
<=2
1501 entries
<=5
2471 entries
<=10
3342 entries
<=20
4043 entries
<=50
4329 entries
>50
8 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)61.4%
Mid (20-55c)27.4%
High (>55c)11.2%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 67.8%

Los Angeles$548
Austin$408
Toronto$408
Atlanta$352
Seoul$348
Wellington$335
Buenos Aires$283
Warsaw$229
Seattle$215
San Francisco$177
Mexico City$161
Qingdao$154
Wuhan$137
Chongqing$115
Kuala Lumpur$109
Shenzhen$105
Houston$90
Milan$88

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
2.5
Events covered
1704

Moderate coverage

<=1
619 brackets
<=2
1018 brackets
<=3
1293 brackets
<=4
1472 brackets
<=5
1585 brackets
<=8
1692 brackets
>8
12 brackets

Sessions

#12
4/23/2026, 10:11:18 AM1 trades$10 min
4/23/2026, 1:58:54 PM1 trades$20 min
4/23/2026, 2:53:54 PM1 trades$80 min
4/26/2026, 8:34:16 PM3 trades$91 min
4/26/2026, 11:41:30 PM6 trades$204 min
4/26/2026, 11:59:06 PM9 trades$357 min
4/27/2026, 3:44:22 AM4 trades$114 min
4/27/2026, 2:29:32 PM8 trades$317 min
4/27/2026, 2:43:16 PM8 trades$2513 min
4/27/2026, 3:03:02 PM2 trades$101 min
4/27/2026, 3:14:38 PM6 trades$239 min
4/27/2026, 3:33:40 PM2 trades$44 min
4/27/2026, 3:47:00 PM3 trades$148 min
4/27/2026, 4:04:02 PM1 trades$30 min
4/27/2026, 4:15:18 PM3 trades$141 min
4/27/2026, 4:35:00 PM1 trades$50 min
4/27/2026, 9:41:00 PM3 trades$151 min
4/27/2026, 9:49:22 PM1 trades$50 min
4/27/2026, 10:52:28 PM1 trades$30 min
4/28/2026, 1:00:12 AM1 trades$50 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-30
05-01
05-12
05-21
05-30
06-08
06-17

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
WEATHER
99.7% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0.1% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 7.2/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 2.5 br/event