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@bcda

#2,921,57398

0xb45a797faa52b0fd8adc56d30382022b7b12192c

178d· 2247 markets · 14931 tradesVol: $150,420,6062026-06-26T12:59
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

98
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 79%20/20
Profit Factor 9.79x15/15
Sharpe 0.68813/15
Sortino 1.56310/10
EV $+8.70610/10
HHI 6510/10
Profit Days 83%10/10
DD/Peak 9%10/10

Summary

Trader bcda has been moderately active on Polymarket, engaging in 14,931 trades across 263 markets over 177 days. Despite a high total volume of over $150 million, bcda’s net PnL sits at a significant loss of approximately $1.83 million, placing them at rank #2,921,573 globally. Their Smart Score is a notable 98/100, indicating elite recognition, though their portfolio value remains around $25,178 with a Sharpe ratio of 0.69, reflecting moderate risk-adjusted returns.

Bcda’s trading style appears aggressive and high-volume, with a very low win rate of 7.1% and a profit factor of 0.03, suggesting frequent losses outweighing gains. The trader does not engage in sell orders, indicating a possible buy-and-hold or long-only approach without exit trades. The absence of weather market participation and a bot score of 60/100 imply a semi-automated strategy blending manual decisions with algorithmic support. The portfolio’s equity trend is stable but flat, and the maximum drawdown duration is zero, pointing to consistent, albeit unprofitable, exposure.

Strengths of bcda include a sniper badge and contrarian style, hinting at precise market entries and unconventional bets, which may yield occasional wins despite overall losses. However, the large negative PnL and low win rate pose significant risks. The stable equity trend and lack of drawdown duration show resilience, but the trader’s approach on Polymarket carries substantial downside without clear profit consistency.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

8
Sniper
Win Rate 79%
Contrarian
69% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
0% sell
Win Streak
14 wins in a row
Whale
$19,416,421
Consistent
104/125 days
High Roller
$109,697/day
Cool Head
DD 9%

Categories

2
SPORTS#1,756,110$-1,830,755Vol: $150,420,516
CRYPTO#999,799$-5Vol: $90

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-1,830,759
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$150,420,606
Total Redeem
$1,238,094
Portfolio
$25,179
Predictions
2247
total markets
Trades
14871B / 60S
Daily Volume
$109,697
Account Age
178d
since Jan 2, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$-267,750
Vol: $0
Week
$-521,847
Vol: $3,287,505
Month
$-588,639
Vol: $10,827,277
All Time
$-1,830,759
Vol: $150,420,606

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
81%
246W / 59L events
Realized PnL
$23,929,099
Win Rate
7%
14W / 182L
Profit Factor
0.03x
Avg Win
$33,784
Avg Loss
$-88,243

Top Winners

Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?$155,000
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?$118,500
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw?$58,998
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds$43,000
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5$27,944
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners$19,214
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics$13,202
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5$11,296
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5$10,000
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5$7,912

Top Losers

Nets vs. Nuggets$-349,198
Kings vs. Celtics$-326,636
UFC 326: Gregory Rodrigues vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Mai$-312,017
Celtics vs. Bucks$-228,000
UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, $-214,732
UFC Fight Night: Luke Riley vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Ma$-199,648
Arizona Wildcats vs. BYU Cougars$-199,608
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers$-198,706
UFC Fight Night: Louie Sutherland vs. Brando Pericic (Heavyweight$-193,161
Bulls vs. Spurs: O/U 245.5$-189,445

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.688
Sortino
1.563
HHI
65
Diversified
EV per $1
$8.706
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
2%
Top-5 markets
8.5%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
97.9
Very active
Markets / Day
1.7
Active Hours
18/24
Extended
Peak Hour
22:00 UTC
Median Gap
10s
between trades
Avg Gap
8.6m
between trades
Night Trading
31%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
5.62
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
7 min
Avg Trades / Session
13.2

Bot Detection

#6
60
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 10s — suspiciously fastSize CV 5.62 — diverse, typical for human31% at night — bot never sleeps18/24 hours — extended daySession CV 1.21 — human randomness98 trades/day — mass trading317 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 22:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
56.5
Heavy DCA
<=1
32 entries
<=2
44 entries
<=5
68 entries
<=10
95 entries
<=20
122 entries
<=50
176 entries
>50
87 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0%
Mid (20-55c)86.1%
High (>55c)13.9%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 53.7%

Dallas$0
Los Angeles$-123,940
Seattle$-178,427
San Francisco$-208,057
Toronto$-212,860
Miami$-215,135
Atlanta$-433,653
Houston$-479,489
Chicago$-559,674
Other$-13,176,089

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
251

Single bracket

<=1
239 brackets
<=2
251 brackets
<=3
251 brackets
<=4
251 brackets
<=5
251 brackets
<=8
251 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
1/24/2026, 10:52:56 PM13 trades$73,5004 min
1/25/2026, 12:08:54 AM5 trades$248,9968 min
1/25/2026, 12:33:22 AM2 trades$12,0212 min
1/25/2026, 12:49:38 AM1 trades$6,4000 min
1/25/2026, 12:57:34 AM1 trades$4,1710 min
1/25/2026, 1:16:38 AM2 trades$26,0000 min
1/25/2026, 2:09:14 AM1 trades$25,1640 min
1/25/2026, 2:27:30 AM1 trades$3,7690 min
1/25/2026, 4:48:50 PM9 trades$94,1870 min
1/26/2026, 12:56:16 AM65 trades$116,6583 min
1/26/2026, 1:07:36 AM59 trades$34,7112 min
1/26/2026, 9:49:15 PM107 trades$18,10970 min
1/26/2026, 11:04:17 PM19 trades$28,81018 min
1/26/2026, 11:32:31 PM8 trades$86,0289 min
1/26/2026, 11:59:25 PM2 trades$1,4944 min
1/27/2026, 12:19:17 AM1 trades$5,0980 min
1/27/2026, 12:45:57 AM9 trades$18,93411 min
1/27/2026, 1:04:35 AM39 trades$88,05456 min
1/27/2026, 11:37:01 PM1 trades$96,0000 min
1/27/2026, 11:56:01 PM2 trades$92,7982 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-04
01-29
03-09
04-05
04-28
06-03
06-23
06-30

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0.4% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 56.5/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event