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@blue-walnut

#1,162100

0x4b188496d1b3da1716165380999afb9b314c725f

110d· 8218 markets · 83229 tradesVol: $25,126,4392026-05-15T21:02
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

100
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 85%20/20
Profit Factor 27.36x15/15
Sharpe 1.20715/15
Sortino 205.94910/10
EV $+66.98710/10
HHI 6310/10
Profit Days 90%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Blue-walnut is an elite trader on Polymarket, ranked #1162 globally with a net profit of $129,639.10 over 60 days. With a high Smart Score of 100/100 and a trading volume exceeding $25 million across 83,229 trades in 296 markets, blue-walnut demonstrates significant activity and experience. Despite a portfolio value currently at zero, the trader maintains a Sharpe Ratio of 1.21, indicating steady risk-adjusted returns.

The trading style of blue-walnut is characterized by a contrarian approach and the use of automated strategies, as reflected in a Bot Score of 70/100 and badges such as Sniper and Contrarian. They show a preference for short-term, high-frequency trading rather than holding positions, evidenced by no sell percentage and a zero-day max drawdown duration. The win rate of 39.8% combined with a low profit factor suggests blue-walnut accepts frequent small losses in pursuit of larger gains, consistent with a risk-managed, algorithm-driven style.

Blue-walnut’s key strengths lie in disciplined execution, automation, and resilience, with a flat equity trend signaling stable performance under varying market conditions. However, the low profit factor and relatively modest win rate imply that sustained profitability depends heavily on precise trade timing and risk controls. The absence of portfolio holdings also suggests blue-walnut quickly closes positions, which may limit upside during trending markets.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

10
Sniper
Win Rate 85%
Profitable
PnL $+129,639
Contrarian
52% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
0% sell
Bot
Score 70/100
Win Streak
43 wins in a row
Whale
$839,568
Consistent
55/61 days
High Roller
$13,993/day
Cool Head
DD 0%

Categories

1
CRYPTO#202$129,639Vol: $25,126,439

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$129,639
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$25,126,439
Total Redeem
$11,904
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
8218
total markets
Trades
83229B / 0S
Daily Volume
$13,993
Account Age
110d
since Jan 30, 2026

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
85%
372W / 67L events
Realized PnL
$472,870
Win Rate
40%
43W / 65L
Profit Factor
0.01x
Avg Win
$85
Avg Loss
$-5,163

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET$309
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET$272
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET$153
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET$147
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET$143
XRP Up or Down - March 31, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET$143
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$142
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET$140
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET$137
Solana Up or Down - March 31, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET$130

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4AM ET$-10,256
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12PM ET$-9,527
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12PM ET$-8,937
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9AM ET$-8,892
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 7PM ET$-8,707
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 9PM ET$-8,530
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 10AM ET$-7,531
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 11AM ET$-7,338
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8PM ET$-7,214
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5PM ET$-7,094

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
1.207
Sortino
205.949
HHI
63
Diversified
EV per $1
$66.987
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
1.3%
Top-5 markets
6%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
1402.0
Very active
Markets / Day
5.0
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
13:00 UTC
Median Gap
4s
between trades
Avg Gap
1.4m
between trades
Night Trading
21%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.65
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
50 min
Avg Trades / Session
430.4

Bot Detection

#6
70
BOT (automated trading)HIGH probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
54% < 5s — fast clicker/botSize CV 1.65 — diverse, typical for human21% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.56 — human randomness1402 trades/day — automation440 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 13:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
281.2
Heavy DCA
<=1
0 entries
<=2
0 entries
<=5
0 entries
<=10
0 entries
<=20
3 entries
<=50
19 entries
>50
277 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)16.7%
Mid (20-55c)43.3%
High (>55c)40.1%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 44.4%

Other$-331,982

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
296

Single bracket

<=1
296 brackets
<=2
296 brackets
<=3
296 brackets
<=4
296 brackets
<=5
296 brackets
<=8
296 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
1/31/2026, 9:05:22 AM561 trades$5,77554 min
2/1/2026, 3:00:10 AM622 trades$6,002117 min
2/1/2026, 8:00:08 AM289 trades$3,34059 min
2/1/2026, 4:00:08 PM394 trades$1,53959 min
2/2/2026, 11:00:08 AM241 trades$1,96559 min
2/2/2026, 1:00:08 PM271 trades$2,03058 min
2/3/2026, 12:01:48 AM236 trades$1,54057 min
2/3/2026, 6:00:10 AM440 trades$4,62857 min
2/3/2026, 11:00:30 AM814 trades$8,08859 min
2/3/2026, 1:00:10 PM920 trades$8,28359 min
2/4/2026, 10:00:09 PM301 trades$2,02759 min
2/5/2026, 3:00:09 AM629 trades$5,14649 min
2/5/2026, 2:00:27 PM218 trades$1,28358 min
2/6/2026, 12:01:51 AM39 trades$17115 min
2/6/2026, 12:38:53 AM224 trades$1,09612 min
2/6/2026, 12:57:05 AM110 trades$5391 min
2/6/2026, 6:00:11 PM607 trades$6,58557 min
2/6/2026, 11:00:09 PM386 trades$4,04443 min
2/6/2026, 11:50:27 PM1 trades$30 min
2/7/2026, 9:00:13 AM379 trades$3,64351 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-30
02-09
02-19
03-01
03-11
03-21
03-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 281.2/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event