Polydata

@bravenewboy

#173

0xad4afaf77149d47d79541b88c09ba54b5687ddb8

505d· 4470 markets · 1950 tradesVol: $1,135,3542026-06-19T22:03
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

73
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 93%20/20
Profit Factor 0.03x0/15
Sharpe 0.70913/15
Sortino 26000.14210/10
HHI 4310/10
Profit Days 81%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Bravenewboy is the top-ranked trader on Polymarket's global PnL leaderboard, boasting a net profit of over $125 million with a total trading volume exceeding $1.1 million across 1,950 trades. Active for nearly a year (346 days), this trader maintains a stable portfolio value around $646 and holds a very good Smart Score of 73/100. Despite a relatively low win rate of 26.2%, bravenewboy’s overall profitability secures their position at the pinnacle of Polymarket traders.

The trader shows a strong preference for weather-related markets, which comprise 37% of their activities. Bravenewboy tends to employ a low sell percentage strategy (3%) and exhibits traits consistent with a disciplined, long-term holding style, as indicated by the “Diamond Hands” badge and flat equity trend. The Sharpe ratio of 0.71 suggests moderate risk-adjusted returns, while the very short max drawdown duration points to effective risk management. Their trading behavior appears human-driven, supported by a low bot score and fast interface use.

Bravenewboy’s key strength lies in their ability to generate substantial profits despite a low win rate, leveraging precise market timing and hedging strategies. However, the exceptionally low profit factor of 0.03 signals that losses might often outweigh wins on a per-trade basis, which could pose risks if market conditions shift unfavorably. Their consistent performance and disciplined approach on Polymarket are impressive, though continued success will depend on maintaining effective risk controls amid potential volatility.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Sniper
Win Rate 93%
Profitable
PnL $+125,478,465
Diamond Hands
3% sell
Hedger
avg 4.0 brackets/event
Win Streak
30 wins in a row
Consistent
29/36 days
Cool Head
DD 0%

Categories

9
CRYPTO#1,596,140$-1,782,212Vol: $429,344
🏛️ POLITICS#14$4,570,128Vol: $329,257
SPORTS#1$39,572,488Vol: $127,094
🎭 CULTURE#1$14,112,733Vol: $96,058
🌤️ WEATHER#2$49,128,226Vol: $52,270
💰 FINANCE#1$5,866,598Vol: $39,425
📈 ECONOMICS#3$13,765,380Vol: $23,507
💻 TECH#2$206,076Vol: $13,940
📢 MENTIONS#160,475$-184Vol: $394

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$125,478,465
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$1,135,354
Total Redeem
$3,980
Portfolio
$646
Predictions
4470
total markets
Trades
1883B / 67S
Daily Volume
$64
Account Age
505d
since Jan 31, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$125,480,287
Vol: $0
Week
$125,480,260
Vol: $0
Month
$125,480,242
Vol: $0
All Time
$125,478,465
Vol: $1,135,354

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
86%
59W / 10L events
Realized PnL
$93,430,916
Win Rate
26%
91W / 256L
Profit Factor
0.03x
Avg Win
$4
Avg Loss
$-58

Top Winners

Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026?$73
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on Februa$31
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on Februa$21
Will Claude 5 be released by February 6, 2026?$18
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on February 4?$14
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on Februa$13
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on Februa$13
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on Februa$13
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on Februa$13
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on Februa$13

Top Losers

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 52-53°F on Febr$-213
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $3.00-$4.00 on the final day of tra$-192
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 5?$-191
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 37°C or higher on$-187
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 36°C on February $-187
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 35°C on February $-186
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C on February $-179
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 5?$-174
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $6.00-$7.00 on the final day of tra$-172
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 34°C on February $-170

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.709
Sortino
inf
HHI
43
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.767
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
1.2%
Top-5 markets
5.3%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
9.4
Moderate
Markets / Day
2.3
Active Hours
22/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
11:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.5m
between trades
Avg Gap
34.9m
between trades
Night Trading
1%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.17
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.7

Bot Detection

#6
25
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 88s — typical for humanSize CV 1.17 — diverse, typical for human1% at night — normal sleep pattern22/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.27 — human randomness314 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 11:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
4.1
Moderate DCA
<=1
103 entries
<=2
206 entries
<=5
338 entries
<=10
431 entries
<=20
458 entries
<=50
459 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)7.5%
Mid (20-55c)12.1%
High (>55c)80.4%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 1%

Wellington$25
Seoul$16
Chicago$4
Houston$0
Los Angeles$0
Toronto$-27
Milan$-63
Seattle$-109
Miami$-156
Atlanta$-166
Dallas$-257
Ankara$-293
New York City$-985
Buenos Aires$-1,603
London$-2,318
Other$-8,428

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
4
Events covered
118

Multi-bracket hedger

<=1
29 brackets
<=2
39 brackets
<=3
64 brackets
<=4
73 brackets
<=5
84 brackets
<=8
112 brackets
>8
6 brackets

Sessions

#12
8/25/2025, 5:50:55 PM1 trades$1960 min
1/15/2026, 3:34:16 PM1 trades$80 min
1/15/2026, 5:22:24 PM1 trades$90 min
1/16/2026, 9:36:52 AM9 trades$244 min
1/16/2026, 1:39:26 PM5 trades$1406 min
1/16/2026, 1:53:34 PM2 trades$13 min
1/16/2026, 2:17:50 PM1 trades$80 min
1/18/2026, 12:23:44 PM1 trades$00 min
1/19/2026, 10:42:20 AM5 trades$370 min
1/19/2026, 12:26:20 PM1 trades$20 min
1/19/2026, 3:57:10 PM3 trades$140 min
1/19/2026, 4:04:16 PM6 trades$1991 min
1/19/2026, 5:33:54 PM3 trades$180 min
1/19/2026, 5:59:04 PM7 trades$600 min
1/20/2026, 8:41:04 AM1 trades$200 min
1/20/2026, 11:36:56 AM13 trades$21810 min
1/20/2026, 12:33:28 PM1 trades$200 min
1/21/2026, 9:22:32 AM3 trades$400 min
1/21/2026, 10:19:46 AM3 trades$400 min
1/21/2026, 11:03:02 AM7 trades$646 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
01-28
02-04
02-10
03-17
04-12

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
37.3% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
3.4% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 4.1/mkt
Hedging
MULTI
avg 4 br/event