Polydata

@chilling

#49974

0x5a181dcf3eb53a09fb32b20a5a9312fb8d26f689

1211d· 76 markets · 958 tradesVol: $7,621,5912026-07-08T11:05
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

74
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 58%14/20
Profit Factor 6.71x15/15
Sharpe 0.2374/15
Sortino 1.78910/10
EV $+482105.74010/10
HHI 21832/10
Profit Days 66%9/10
DD/Peak 5%10/10

Summary

Chilling is a highly active trader on Polymarket, holding the rank of #499 on the global PnL leaderboard. With nearly 1,000 trades across 65 markets and a net profit of approximately $398,000, chilling demonstrates significant trading volume totaling over $7.6 million. Their smart score of 74/100 highlights strong performance, supported by a win rate close to 70% and an impressive profit factor of 6.41. Despite this success, their portfolio value currently stands at zero, indicating no open positions at the time of assessment.

The trading style of chilling favors diversified engagement across multiple markets, with a notable preference for weather-related markets, albeit only 2% of total trades. Their risk profile appears moderate to low, as suggested by a short maximum drawdown duration and a Sharpe ratio of 0.24, implying steady but cautious gains. Chilling also employs dollar-cost averaging techniques and maintains a relatively low sell percentage of 15%, suggesting a patient approach to position management and timing.

Chilling’s key strengths include consistent profitability, a strong win streak, and the ability to manage risk effectively, as evidenced by their stable equity trend and minimal drawdown duration. However, the low Sharpe ratio and zero current portfolio value may raise questions about growth potential and capital deployment efficiency. Overall, chilling’s performance on Polymarket reflects a seasoned trader with solid strategies but some room for optimizing risk-adjusted returns.

Badges

7
Profitable
PnL $+397,737
DCA Master
avg 16.4 entries/market
Win Streak
21 wins in a row
Whale
$3,941,943
Consistent
25/38 days
High Roller
$6,150/day
Cool Head
DD 5%

Categories

6
🏛️ POLITICS#1,617,004$-12,259Vol: $2,644,786
💰 FINANCE#7$277,581Vol: $2,490,914
🌤️ WEATHER#20$50,781Vol: $741,106
CRYPTO#1,375,683$-60Vol: $6,020
🎭 CULTURE#741,993$-38Vol: $4,961
SPORTS#70,217$305Vol: $4,294

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$397,737
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$7,621,591
Total Redeem
$4,084,524
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
76
total markets
Trades
818B / 140S
Daily Volume
$6,150
Account Age
1211d
since Mar 16, 2023

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
69%
34W / 15L events
Realized PnL
$397,738
Win Rate
69%
45W / 17L
Profit Factor
6.41x
Avg Win
$12,348
Avg Loss
$-5,102

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $458,338 (97.7% of PnL)

Top Winners

Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15?$396,706
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?$34,215
Will NASA record 2023 as the hottest year on record? (1.03°C or h$27,416
Will Ramaswamy place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus?$15,942
Will the final global heat increase be 1.08 or greater for 2023?$10,787
SEC approves first spot Bitcoin ETF on Jan 10?$10,657
Taiwan Presidential Election: Will Ko Wen-je win?$10,183
Will the final global heat increase be 1.05 or greater for 2023?$10,171
Who will get more votes in Taiwan Election: Hou Yu-ih (侯友宜) or Ko$8,568
Will Nikki Haley win the 2024 US Presidential Election?$5,085

Top Losers

Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?$-45,545
Taiwan Presidential Election: Will Lai Ching-te win?$-40,000
Will USDC flip USDT in market cap in 2024?$-311
Trump margin of victory in New Hampshire Primary >15%$-220
Tether Insolvent in 2024?$-195
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2024?$-190
LayerZero airdrop by April?$-60
Ethereum ETF approved by May 31?$-48
Will Cillian Murphy win the Oscar for Best Actor?$-47
Will Trump appear on Maine primary ballot?$-47

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.237
Sortino
1.789
HHI
2183
Moderate
EV per $1
$482105.740
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
44.1%
Top-5 markets
68.2%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
4.9
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.3
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
20:00 UTC
Median Gap
5.9m
between trades
Avg Gap
39.3m
between trades
Night Trading
24%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.51
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.4

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 354s — typical for humanSize CV 3.51 — diverse, typical for human24% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.76 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 20:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
16.4
Heavy DCA
<=1
21 entries
<=2
26 entries
<=5
37 entries
<=10
42 entries
<=20
48 entries
<=50
49 entries
>50
1 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0.9%
Mid (20-55c)3.4%
High (>55c)95.7%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 86%

Other$458,281
ETF$10,657

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.5
Events covered
42

Single bracket

<=1
36 brackets
<=2
40 brackets
<=3
40 brackets
<=4
41 brackets
<=5
41 brackets
<=8
41 brackets
>8
1 brackets

Sessions

#12
7/19/2023, 10:32:12 PM1 trades$6,0430 min
7/24/2023, 4:54:37 PM1 trades$38,6800 min
7/24/2023, 6:31:54 PM2 trades$1,1340 min
7/24/2023, 6:40:26 PM1 trades$9370 min
7/24/2023, 6:54:36 PM1 trades$7,8300 min
7/24/2023, 8:43:42 PM3 trades$155,7092 min
7/24/2023, 9:04:27 PM3 trades$5331 min
7/24/2023, 9:13:23 PM1 trades$11,6320 min
7/24/2023, 9:43:05 PM3 trades$3,5633 min
7/24/2023, 9:52:33 PM1 trades$5,2810 min
7/24/2023, 10:08:53 PM2 trades$30,4212 min
7/25/2023, 11:35:06 PM1 trades$8200 min
8/5/2023, 10:57:19 PM1 trades$3,4320 min
8/6/2023, 12:25:39 AM2 trades$7,8204 min
8/6/2023, 12:44:23 AM1 trades$10 min
8/11/2023, 12:57:21 PM1 trades$15,2110 min
8/20/2023, 9:54:03 PM2 trades$9,3041 min
8/20/2023, 10:02:42 PM1 trades$16,2000 min
8/23/2023, 3:03:55 PM1 trades$9,0210 min
8/23/2023, 3:23:36 PM1 trades$82,0000 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-31
06-23
10-14
01-13
01-31
03-08
11-05

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
1.5% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
14.6% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 16.4/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.5 br/event