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@climatologist

#21,11476

0xd06f9b9147113082f59289e8c0354a08fa306719

174d· 2727 markets · 8368 tradesVol: $1,464,633 @Climatologist_2026-06-21T23:20
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

76
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 39%4/20
Profit Factor 2.63x15/15
Sharpe 0.4699/15
Sortino 0.7518/10
EV $+1.62810/10
HHI 9110/10
Profit Days 82%10/10
DD/Peak 9%10/10

Summary

Climatologist is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, with 8,368 trades across 600 markets over 177 days. Ranked #21114 globally, they have generated a net PnL of $5,720.83 on a total volume exceeding $1.46 million. Their Smart Score of 76/100 indicates very good trading skills, supported by a high win rate of 85.1% and a strong profit factor of 17.81. Despite the substantial trading activity, climatologist maintains a relatively stable portfolio value around $190.90, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.47 reflecting modest risk-adjusted returns.

Climatologist primarily focuses on weather-related markets, accounting for 98% of their trades, indicating a highly specialized strategy. Their trading style leans toward automation, as suggested by a Bot Score of 70/100, and they exhibit a contrarian and dollar-cost averaging approach. The low sell percentage of 10% implies they often hold positions and possibly use long-term timing. Their short max drawdown duration suggests disciplined risk management, allowing them to recover quickly from any losses.

The key strengths of climatologist include their consistent profitability, specialization in weather markets, and disciplined approach to risk and trade execution. However, their flat equity trend and relatively low portfolio value compared to volume traded may indicate limited capital growth or conservative position sizing. Additionally, the reliance on automated strategies and concentrated market focus could pose risks if market conditions in weather markets shift abruptly. Overall, climatologist demonstrates solid performance on Polymarket but may face challenges scaling their strategy.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

9
Profitable
PnL $+5,721
Lottery Player
88% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
96% entries <$0.50
DCA Master
avg 12.6 entries/market
Weather Pro
98% weather
Bot
Score 70/100
Win Streak
24 wins in a row
Consistent
87/106 days
Cool Head
DD 9%

Categories

7
🌤️ WEATHER#286$5,782Vol: $1,332,732
🏛️ POLITICS#1,348,574$-20Vol: $101,694
SPORTS#1,426,008$-29Vol: $21,445
CRYPTO#932,641$-3Vol: $5,161
🎭 CULTURE#510,087$-1Vol: $2,924
💰 FINANCE#406,163$-0Vol: $400
📢 MENTIONS#115,805$-7Vol: $276

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$5,721
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$1,464,633
Total Redeem
$3,098
Portfolio
$191
Predictions
2727
total markets
Trades
7521B / 847S
Daily Volume
$120
Account Age
174d
since Jan 19, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$-206
Vol: $2,575
Week
$-824
Vol: $2,575
Month
$571
Vol: $357,285
All Time
$5,721
Vol: $1,464,633

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
48%
176W / 191L events
Realized PnL
$21,222
Win Rate
85%
40W / 7L
Profit Factor
17.81x
Avg Win
$82
Avg Loss
$-26

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $1,452 (47.1% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on Jun$578
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17?$510
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on May 28$364
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15?$291
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12?$237
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F o$199
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on$150
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F o$133
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on$103
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 16?$103

Top Losers

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June $-75
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F $-53
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 70°F or higher on $-28
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on$-12
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18?$-9
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18?$-6
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 18?$-1

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.469
Sortino
0.751
HHI
91
Diversified
EV per $1
$1.628
Kelly %
82.4%
Half-Kelly
41.2%
Top-1 market
3.1%
Top-5 markets
12.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
156.5
Very active
Markets / Day
11.2
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
23:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.0m
between trades
Avg Gap
8.5m
between trades
Night Trading
22%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
4.13
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.4

Bot Detection

#6
70
BOT (automated trading)HIGH probability

8 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
MEDIUM
Median gap 61s — typical for humanSize CV 4.13 — diverse, typical for human21% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.05 — human randomness156 trades/day — automation11 markets/day — mass coverage683 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 23:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
12.6
Heavy DCA
<=1
95 entries
<=2
153 entries
<=5
276 entries
<=10
379 entries
<=20
483 entries
<=50
576 entries
>50
22 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)87.6%
Mid (20-55c)8.5%
High (>55c)3.9%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 69.7%

Helsinki$680
Chicago$578
London$361
New York City$329
Paris$299
Miami$289
Los Angeles$213
Munich$139
Houston$76
Amsterdam$64
Other$46
Ankara$5
Lagos$4
Dallas$0
Sao Paulo$0
Kuala Lumpur$0
Lucknow$0
Toronto$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
2.3
Events covered
266

Moderate coverage

<=1
121 brackets
<=2
180 brackets
<=3
214 brackets
<=4
235 brackets
<=5
255 brackets
<=8
266 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
4/28/2026, 10:46:06 PM1 trades$10 min
4/28/2026, 11:13:22 PM1 trades$00 min
4/28/2026, 11:47:12 PM5 trades$34 min
4/29/2026, 9:53:00 AM1 trades$00 min
4/29/2026, 9:46:42 PM2 trades$02 min
4/29/2026, 10:35:24 PM1 trades$00 min
4/30/2026, 12:01:32 AM1 trades$00 min
4/30/2026, 9:36:16 PM1 trades$80 min
4/30/2026, 9:51:24 PM1 trades$100 min
4/30/2026, 10:01:20 PM3 trades$44 min
4/30/2026, 10:42:22 PM1 trades$10 min
4/30/2026, 11:03:58 PM1 trades$00 min
4/30/2026, 11:40:16 PM4 trades$141 min
5/1/2026, 12:02:00 AM1 trades$10 min
5/1/2026, 12:29:26 AM2 trades$15 min
5/1/2026, 12:52:58 AM11 trades$94 min
5/1/2026, 1:30:34 AM1 trades$00 min
5/1/2026, 7:50:52 AM2 trades$164 min
5/1/2026, 8:00:16 AM1 trades$00 min
5/1/2026, 10:02:44 AM5 trades$161 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-24
02-19
03-28
04-27
05-14
05-31
06-22

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
WEATHER
98.2% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
10.1% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 12.6/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 2.3 br/event