Polydata

@climatologist

#25,01271

0xd06f9b9147113082f59289e8c0354a08fa306719

174d· 2892 markets · 6408 tradesVol: $1,583,821 @Climatologist_2026-07-12T23:04
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

71
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 33%1/20
Profit Factor 2.27x15/15
Sharpe 0.3737/15
Sortino 0.7538/10
EV $+1.29210/10
HHI 10210/10
Profit Days 73%10/10
DD/Peak 12%10/10

Summary

Climatologist is an experienced and active trader on Polymarket, currently ranked #25012 on the global PnL leaderboard. With 6,408 trades across 573 markets and a net PnL of $4,946.49, climatologist has demonstrated consistent profitability over 175 active days. The trader maintains a very good Smart Score of 71 and a profit factor of 21.97, highlighting strong risk-adjusted returns despite a moderate Sharpe ratio of 0.37.

The trading style of climatologist is focused heavily on weather-related markets, which make up 98% of their activity. This specialization suggests a deep knowledge or interest in that sector. Climatologist exhibits a low sell percentage of 9%, indicating a preference for holding positions rather than frequent profit-taking, supported by badges such as Diamond Hands and DCA Master. The strategy appears to be a semi-automated combination of bot-driven and manual trades, with a contrarian and lottery-player approach, likely seeking value in less crowded positions over time.

Key strengths of climatologist include a high win rate of 85.2% and an ability to avoid prolonged drawdowns, as shown by a zero-day max drawdown duration. The large volume and stable equity trend indicate disciplined and consistent trading. However, reliance on weather markets may expose climatologist to sector-specific risks, and the relatively low Sharpe ratio suggests some vulnerability to volatility. Overall, climatologist’s data reflects a measured, specialized approach with strong execution on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

9
Profitable
PnL $+4,946
Lottery Player
83% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
96% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
9% sell
DCA Master
avg 10.2 entries/market
Weather Pro
98% weather
Win Streak
10 wins in a row
Consistent
80/109 days
Cool Head
DD 12%

Categories

7
🌤️ WEATHER#375$5,102Vol: $1,435,261
🏛️ POLITICS#1,363,123$-20Vol: $101,694
SPORTS#1,668,477$-120Vol: $38,095
CRYPTO#950,940$-3Vol: $5,161
🎭 CULTURE#513,728$-1Vol: $2,924
💰 FINANCE#415,057$-0Vol: $400
📢 MENTIONS#126,575$-11Vol: $286

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$4,946
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$1,583,821
Total Redeem
$1,968
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
2892
total markets
Trades
5831B / 577S
Daily Volume
$101
Account Age
174d
since Jan 19, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$-1
Vol: $0
Week
$-206
Vol: $0
Month
$-74
Vol: $22,939
All Time
$4,946
Vol: $1,583,821

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
41%
171W / 245L events
Realized PnL
$25,846
Win Rate
85%
23W / 4L
Profit Factor
21.97x
Avg Win
$81
Avg Loss
$-21

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $948 (53.7% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on May 28$364
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F $348
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12?$237
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F o$199
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F o$133
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on$103
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 16?$103
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on Jun$89
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 22?$84
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 86°F or higher on May $54

Top Losers

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C or below on June 27$-69
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18?$-9
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18?$-6
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 18?$-1

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.373
Sortino
0.753
HHI
102
Diversified
EV per $1
$1.292
Kelly %
82.7%
Half-Kelly
41.3%
Top-1 market
3.7%
Top-5 markets
12.9%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
90.6
Very active
Markets / Day
8.1
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
0:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.4m
between trades
Avg Gap
13.5m
between trades
Night Trading
26%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.68
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.4

Bot Detection

#6
65
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
MEDIUM
Median gap 83s — typical for humanSize CV 3.68 — diverse, typical for human26% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.07 — human randomness91 trades/day — mass trading803 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 0:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
10.2
Heavy DCA
<=1
112 entries
<=2
175 entries
<=5
301 entries
<=10
401 entries
<=20
489 entries
<=50
551 entries
>50
20 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)83%
Mid (20-55c)13.3%
High (>55c)3.8%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 69.4%

New York City$683
Miami$364
London$356
Los Angeles$103
Chicago$89
Kuala Lumpur$84
Houston$76
Other$48
Helsinki$22
Amsterdam$5
Dallas$0
Sao Paulo$0
Lucknow$0
Toronto$0
Buenos Aires$0
Madrid$0
Milan$0
Munich$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.8
Events covered
305

Single bracket

<=1
164 brackets
<=2
243 brackets
<=3
273 brackets
<=4
292 brackets
<=5
299 brackets
<=8
305 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
4/28/2026, 10:46:06 PM1 trades$10 min
4/28/2026, 11:13:22 PM1 trades$00 min
4/28/2026, 11:47:12 PM5 trades$34 min
4/29/2026, 9:53:00 AM1 trades$00 min
4/29/2026, 9:46:42 PM2 trades$02 min
4/29/2026, 10:35:24 PM1 trades$00 min
4/30/2026, 12:01:32 AM1 trades$00 min
4/30/2026, 9:36:16 PM1 trades$80 min
4/30/2026, 9:51:24 PM1 trades$100 min
4/30/2026, 10:01:20 PM3 trades$44 min
4/30/2026, 10:42:22 PM1 trades$10 min
4/30/2026, 11:03:58 PM1 trades$00 min
4/30/2026, 11:40:16 PM4 trades$141 min
5/1/2026, 12:02:00 AM1 trades$10 min
5/1/2026, 12:29:26 AM2 trades$15 min
5/1/2026, 12:52:58 AM11 trades$94 min
5/1/2026, 1:30:34 AM1 trades$00 min
5/1/2026, 7:50:52 AM2 trades$164 min
5/1/2026, 8:00:16 AM1 trades$00 min
5/1/2026, 10:02:44 AM5 trades$161 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-26
03-02
04-12
05-09
05-27
06-19
11-07

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
WEATHER
97.7% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
9% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 10.2/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.8 br/event