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@cryptothan

#1,23839

0x90c23cb846d4c78b59096bae855161d92ea28c24

484d· 324 markets · 8994 tradesVol: $4,857,0182026-06-27T03:46
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

39
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 100%20/20
Profit Factor 0.98x2/15
HHI 15110/10
Profit Days 57%7/10
DD/Peak 237%0/10

Summary

Cryptothan is a moderately active Polymarket trader ranked #1238 on the global PnL leaderboard, with a net profit of $145,941.05 accumulated over 481 days. They have completed 8,994 trades across 245 markets, generating a total volume of nearly $4.9 million. Despite a substantial win rate of 64.8%, cryptothan’s profit factor sits just below 1.0 at 0.98, and their Sharpe ratio is slightly negative, indicating minimal risk-adjusted returns.

The trader exhibits a diverse market approach, avoiding weather markets entirely and focusing on a wide range of topics. With a 31% sell rate, cryptothan tends to hold positions rather than frequently exiting trades, suggesting a moderate risk profile with some contrarian tendencies. The presence of badges like Sniper, Contrarian, and DCA Master points to a strategy balancing precision entries with dollar-cost averaging and occasional high-risk bets. Their equity trend is upward, showing consistent growth, but the negative Sharpe ratio hints at volatility or uneven timing.

Cryptothan’s strengths lie in their ability to maintain a positive PnL with a high win rate over a lengthy period, supported by a large number of trades and markets. However, the profit factor under 1 and low Smart Score suggest inefficiencies in trade management or timing. The small portfolio value relative to net PnL could also indicate risk exposure or capital constraints. Overall, cryptothan’s profile on Polymarket reflects steady profitability with room for improvement in risk-adjusted performance.

Badges

8
Sniper
Win Rate 100%
Profitable
PnL $+145,941
Lottery Player
33% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
78% entries <$0.50
DCA Master
avg 25.3 entries/market
Win Streak
22 wins in a row
Whale
$704,411
High Roller
$1,464/day

Categories

6
💰 FINANCE#17$148,411Vol: $4,793,527
🏛️ POLITICS#1,588,680$-1,441Vol: $45,524
🎭 CULTURE#774,403$-140Vol: $8,055
SPORTS#1,685,791$-539Vol: $7,621
CRYPTO#1,499,482$-286Vol: $1,751
📢 MENTIONS#152,580$-65Vol: $540

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$145,941
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$4,857,018
Total Redeem
$142,577
Portfolio
$1,740
Predictions
324
total markets
Trades
6195B / 2799S
Daily Volume
$1,464
Account Age
484d
since Mar 5, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$6
Vol: $0
Week
$14,660
Vol: $67,152
Month
$24,288
Vol: $249,437
All Time
$145,941
Vol: $4,857,018

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
100%
143W / 0L events
Realized PnL
$255,181
Win Rate
65%
136W / 73L
Profit Factor
0.98x
Avg Win
$1,211
Avg Loss
$-2,306

Top Winners

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 10?$18,964
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 26?$17,980
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 11?$14,551
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 13?$13,494
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 9?$9,092
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 4?$7,037
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 15?$5,177
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May?$5,002
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 26?$4,006
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $745 Week of May 18 2026?$3,966

Top Losers

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 6?$-28,954
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 7?$-22,710
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 23?$-21,106
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 27?$-20,226
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 10?$-12,795
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 24?$-8,570
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 20?$-5,287
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 2?$-5,190
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 19?$-4,934
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 27?$-4,494

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.006
Sortino
-0.005
HHI
151
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.005
Kelly %
28.4%
Half-Kelly
14.2%
Top-1 market
5.3%
Top-5 markets
19.3%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
18.8
Active
Markets / Day
0.5
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
13:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.8m
between trades
Avg Gap
19.5m
between trades
Night Trading
22%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.39
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
3 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.2

Bot Detection

#6
25
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 106s — typical for humanSize CV 3.39 — diverse, typical for human22% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.97 — human randomness19 trades/day — very active

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 13:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
25.3
Heavy DCA
<=1
39 entries
<=2
67 entries
<=5
104 entries
<=10
138 entries
<=20
175 entries
<=50
203 entries
>50
42 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)32.6%
Mid (20-55c)50.4%
High (>55c)17%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 42.2%

Other$-3,637

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.4
Events covered
180

Single bracket

<=1
155 brackets
<=2
166 brackets
<=3
171 brackets
<=4
173 brackets
<=5
175 brackets
<=8
179 brackets
>8
1 brackets

Sessions

#12
3/5/2025, 7:19:31 AM2 trades$251 min
3/6/2025, 10:49:27 PM1 trades$310 min
4/21/2025, 3:16:47 AM3 trades$621 min
4/21/2025, 3:22:41 AM2 trades$340 min
4/21/2025, 3:28:35 AM1 trades$50 min
4/21/2025, 7:58:56 AM1 trades$50 min
4/22/2025, 8:03:10 AM1 trades$1000 min
1/24/2026, 9:56:36 PM1 trades$10 min
1/24/2026, 10:16:48 PM1 trades$10 min
1/25/2026, 6:01:48 AM3 trades$1703 min
1/25/2026, 6:14:38 AM1 trades$100 min
1/25/2026, 6:21:56 AM1 trades$170 min
1/25/2026, 1:22:02 PM5 trades$4412 min
1/25/2026, 1:39:24 PM2 trades$23 min
1/25/2026, 1:48:02 PM1 trades$00 min
1/25/2026, 2:07:36 PM4 trades$143 min
1/25/2026, 2:24:42 PM1 trades$50 min
1/25/2026, 2:34:14 PM2 trades$244 min
1/25/2026, 2:52:08 PM1 trades$30 min
1/25/2026, 6:03:34 PM4 trades$457 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-07
02-11
03-10
04-06
04-29
05-21

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
31.1% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 25.3/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.4 br/event