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@cryptothan

#1,40088

0x90c23cb846d4c78b59096bae855161d92ea28c24

442d· 227 markets · 9475 tradesVol: $4,262,6902026-05-15T22:04
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

88
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 62%16/20
Profit Factor 31.59x15/15
Sharpe 0.3977/15
Sortino 32.24310/10
EV $+131.92410/10
HHI 21010/10
Profit Days 67%9/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Cryptothan is an active Polymarket trader ranked #1400 on the global PnL leaderboard with a net profit of $107,574.08. Over 437 days, they executed 9,475 trades across 210 markets, accumulating a total volume exceeding $4.2 million. Their smart score of 88/100 places them in the elite category, highlighting consistent skill and effectiveness. Despite a win rate of 42.6%, cryptothan maintains a profit factor of 1.09, indicating profitability over time.

This trader favors a varied approach, engaging with a wide range of markets rather than focusing on any single category, as seen by zero weather market exposure. Cryptothan’s style appears moderately risky, with a relatively low Sharpe ratio of 0.40 and a sell percentage of 30%, suggesting a balanced exit strategy. Their trading pattern is steady and frequent, with no significant drawdown duration, implying disciplined risk management and timely position adjustments. The bot score suggests cryptothan likely operates manually but with a rapid interface.

Key strengths for cryptothan include a strong overall profitability and consistent equity trend, supported by elite smart score badges such as Sniper and Profitable. However, the moderate win rate and low Sharpe ratio highlight potential vulnerabilities in risk-adjusted returns. Additionally, a flat portfolio value near $942 could indicate limited capital deployment or caution in scaling positions, which might constrain future gains or expose them to market fluctuations.

Badges

9
Sniper
Win Rate 62%
Profitable
PnL $+107,574
Lottery Player
40% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
84% entries <$0.50
Win Streak
11 wins in a row
Whale
$557,537
Consistent
64/96 days
High Roller
$1,276/day
Cool Head
DD 0%

Categories

6
💰 FINANCE#21$110,068Vol: $4,199,289
🏛️ POLITICS#1,523,812$-1,441Vol: $45,524
🎭 CULTURE#746,593$-140Vol: $8,055
SPORTS#1,577,452$-562Vol: $7,531
CRYPTO#1,407,278$-286Vol: $1,751
📢 MENTIONS#147,077$-65Vol: $540

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$107,574
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$4,262,690
Total Redeem
$71,451
Portfolio
$942
Predictions
227
total markets
Trades
6615B / 2860S
Daily Volume
$1,276
Account Age
442d
since Mar 5, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$4,608
Vol: $32,938
Week
$3,566
Vol: $120,696
Month
$13,469
Vol: $317,033
All Time
$107,574
Vol: $4,262,690

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
62%
99W / 60L events
Realized PnL
$205,889
Win Rate
43%
84W / 112L
Profit Factor
1.09x
Avg Win
$1,480
Avg Loss
$-1,019

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $47,008 (459.3% of PnL)

Top Winners

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 10?$18,964
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 11?$14,551
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 13?$13,494
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 9?$9,092
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 9?$7,272
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 4?$7,037
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 15?$5,177
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 26?$4,006
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $730 Week of May 4 2026?$3,773
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 12?$3,267

Top Losers

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 23?$-21,106
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 27?$-20,226
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 24?$-8,570
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 20?$-5,287
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 2?$-5,190
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 19?$-4,934
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 27?$-4,494
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 10?$-3,731
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 17?$-3,575
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 11?$-2,852

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.397
Sortino
32.243
HHI
210
Diversified
EV per $1
$131.924
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
6.7%
Top-5 markets
24.4%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
21.7
Active
Markets / Day
0.5
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
13:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.6m
between trades
Avg Gap
15.8m
between trades
Night Trading
22%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.76
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.5

Bot Detection

#6
35
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 94s — typical for humanSize CV 3.76 — diverse, typical for human22% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.96 — human randomness22 trades/day — suspiciously high

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 13:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
31.5
Heavy DCA
<=1
34 entries
<=2
55 entries
<=5
80 entries
<=10
104 entries
<=20
133 entries
<=50
165 entries
>50
45 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)39.9%
Mid (20-55c)47.8%
High (>55c)12.3%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 41.9%

Other$10,236

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.2
Events covered
172

Single bracket

<=1
155 brackets
<=2
166 brackets
<=3
168 brackets
<=4
168 brackets
<=5
170 brackets
<=8
171 brackets
>8
1 brackets

Sessions

#12
3/5/2025, 3:20:07 AM8 trades$287 min
3/5/2025, 3:32:29 AM2 trades$111 min
3/5/2025, 3:54:10 AM5 trades$253 min
3/5/2025, 7:19:31 AM2 trades$251 min
3/6/2025, 10:49:27 PM3 trades$625 min
4/16/2025, 10:15:26 AM5 trades$291 min
4/16/2025, 7:12:37 PM1 trades$40 min
4/16/2025, 7:49:27 PM4 trades$75 min
4/16/2025, 8:06:43 PM1 trades$10 min
4/16/2025, 8:18:43 PM2 trades$23 min
4/16/2025, 8:26:45 PM1 trades$50 min
4/16/2025, 9:17:05 PM2 trades$210 min
4/18/2025, 1:27:08 AM3 trades$321 min
4/18/2025, 1:41:42 AM6 trades$297 min
4/18/2025, 2:53:07 AM1 trades$20 min
4/18/2025, 11:51:18 AM1 trades$230 min
4/21/2025, 3:16:47 AM3 trades$621 min
4/21/2025, 3:22:41 AM2 trades$340 min
4/21/2025, 3:28:35 AM1 trades$50 min
4/21/2025, 7:58:56 AM1 trades$50 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-04
02-01
02-19
03-13
04-06
04-27

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
30.2% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 31.5/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.2 br/event