Polydata

@d49c4579

#34075

0xd49c4579bbc25d1d1a26a1976c9576d806c98150

~1735d· 208 markets · 18768 tradesVol: $31,941,5382026-05-18T18:14
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

75
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 100%20/20
Profit Factor 0.00x0/15
Sharpe 0.78315/15
Sortino 151831188.17510/10
HHI 22210/10
Profit Days 100%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Trader d49c4579 is an experienced participant on Polymarket with a substantial track record, holding the global rank of #340 on the PnL leaderboard. Over 1735 days of activity, they have executed 18,768 trades across 132 markets, generating a net profit of $440,192.50 from a total volume exceeding $31.9 million. Their Smart Score of 75/100 indicates very good performance, supported by an upward equity trend and a Sharpe ratio of 0.78.

d49c4579 exhibits a high-frequency trading style with a low win rate of 7.8%, suggesting a strategy focused on high-risk, high-reward opportunities rather than consistent small gains. Their minimal sell percentage (1%) and badges such as "Diamond Hands" and "Contrarian" imply a preference for holding positions and possibly betting against prevailing market sentiment. The trader’s engagement across diverse markets, excluding weather, and a semi-bot trading approach reflect a blend of automated and manual decision-making.

The strengths of d49c4579 lie in their ability to generate significant profits from a large volume of trades while maintaining an upward equity trajectory. However, the low win rate and zero profit factor highlight the inherent risk and volatility in their approach. The absence of drawdown duration suggests effective risk management in terms of timing, but their semi-bot style and contrarian bets may expose them to sudden market shifts, making careful monitoring essential.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

8
Sniper
Win Rate 100%
Profitable
PnL $+440,193
Lottery Player
33% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
60% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
1% sell
Whale
$12,290,886
Consistent
129/129 days
High Roller
$7,084/day

Categories

4
CRYPTO#51$400,576Vol: $31,464,918
💰 FINANCE#682$6,877Vol: $392,522
🏛️ POLITICS#15,448$1,154Vol: $81,374
📢 MENTIONS#29,736$3Vol: $2,724

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$440,193
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$31,941,538
Total Redeem
$308,992
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
208
total markets
Trades
18527B / 241S
Daily Volume
$7,084
Account Age
~1735d

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
100%
181W / 0L events
Realized PnL
$19,586,223
Win Rate
8%
10W / 119L
Profit Factor
0x
Avg Win
$3,516
Avg Loss
$-80,061

Top Winners

Solana above $260 on January 31?$20,527
Will Ethereum dip to $2500 by February 28 2025?$7,317
Will Bitcoin dip to $95,000 by February 28, 2025?$4,188
Will Ethereum dip to $2750 by February 28 2025?$1,479
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.25 by February 28 2025?$946
Solana all time high by June 30?$325
Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 by December 31?$231
Dogecoin above $0.34 on February 7?$103
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by January 31?$23
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by January 31, 2025?$16

Top Losers

Ethereum above $3,400 on January 24?$-576,525
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in December?$-373,446
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?$-371,712
Bitcoin above $103,000 on January 24?$-364,436
Bitcoin above $100,000 on December 20?$-363,559
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by January 31, 2025?$-307,674
Will Solana hit $275 by January 31, 2025?$-283,227
Bitcoin above $100,000 on December 13?$-278,278
Bitcoin above $97,000 on January 10?$-266,633
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in December?$-250,281

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.783
Sortino
inf
HHI
222
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.772
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
6.2%
Top-5 markets
24.1%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
298.1
Very active
Markets / Day
2.1
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
16:00 UTC
Median Gap
32s
between trades
Avg Gap
5.2m
between trades
Night Trading
16%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.52
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
4 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.7

Bot Detection

#6
50
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 32s — typical for humanSize CV 2.52 — diverse, typical for human16% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.10 — human randomness298 trades/day — automation

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 16:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
140.4
Heavy DCA
<=1
1 entries
<=2
3 entries
<=5
11 entries
<=10
16 entries
<=20
31 entries
<=50
52 entries
>50
80 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)33.1%
Mid (20-55c)30.4%
High (>55c)36.5%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 38.9%

Other$-9,492,146

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
2.3
Events covered
58

Moderate coverage

<=1
42 brackets
<=2
46 brackets
<=3
47 brackets
<=4
49 brackets
<=5
51 brackets
<=8
55 brackets
>8
3 brackets

Sessions

#12
12/4/2024, 11:08:44 PM1 trades$90 min
12/4/2024, 11:27:15 PM1 trades$90 min
12/5/2024, 12:51:54 AM2 trades$291 min
12/5/2024, 6:36:24 AM1 trades$4900 min
12/5/2024, 6:46:20 AM1 trades$2070 min
12/5/2024, 8:40:50 AM2 trades$5901 min
12/5/2024, 8:56:20 AM2 trades$480 min
12/5/2024, 9:01:40 AM1 trades$410 min
12/5/2024, 9:23:26 AM1 trades$670 min
12/5/2024, 12:22:07 PM1 trades$670 min
12/5/2024, 12:43:16 PM1 trades$2700 min
12/5/2024, 12:55:40 PM1 trades$1210 min
12/5/2024, 2:14:56 PM2 trades$580 min
12/5/2024, 2:25:38 PM4 trades$3013 min
12/5/2024, 3:23:40 PM2 trades$4030 min
12/5/2024, 3:43:36 PM1 trades$610 min
12/6/2024, 1:11:50 AM12 trades$2,37318 min
12/6/2024, 1:42:06 AM16 trades$2,05130 min
12/6/2024, 2:21:11 AM3 trades$1175 min
12/6/2024, 2:31:43 AM14 trades$2,74523 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
04-01
12-31
04-12
06-12
08-20
02-28
01-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
1.3% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 140.4/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 2.3 br/event