Polydata
elmcap2

@elmcap2

#7490

0xed107a85a4585a381e48c7f7ca4144909e7dd2e5

~657d· 1872 markets · 84071 tradesVol: $287,442,291 @elm_cap2026-07-31 11:50:15
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

90
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

89% (1585/1772)20/20
5.46x (win $2,503,072 / loss $458,150)15/15
Annualised Sharpe 4.88815/15
Sortino 27.39810/10
$+0.0082 per $1 invested0.4/10
HHI 107 (1772 markets)10/10
336/404 profitable days (83%)10/10
Max DD 3% of peak ($54,941 / $2,030,615)10/10

Badges

10
Sniper
Win rate 89%
Profitable
PnL $+2,045,560
DCA Master
Avg 44.5 entries/market
Whale
$250,473,112 invested
Consistent
336/404 profitable days
High Roller
$210,482/day
Cool Head
Max DD 3%
Win Streak
58 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active
🏗️Market Maker
86% maker orders

Categories

9
🏛️ POLITICS#46$793,561Vol: $130,389,773
📈 ECONOMICS#2$900,038Vol: $79,449,730
CRYPTO#207$149,533Vol: $21,843,817
🎭 CULTURE#28$145,639Vol: $21,205,262
SPORTS#1,875,615$-11,052Vol: $13,164,917
📢 MENTIONS#86$23,490Vol: $9,509,641
💻 TECH#73$20,570Vol: $5,743,509
💰 FINANCE#411$13,737Vol: $5,598,357
🌤️ WEATHER#1,816$846Vol: $77,450

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$2,045,560
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$287,442,291
Total Redeem
$22,225,413
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
1872
total markets
Trades
72312B / 11759S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~657d

Periods

#2
Today
$129
Vol: $14,264
Week
$29,188
Vol: $7,079,375
Month
$53,607
Vol: $21,519,587
All Time
$2,045,560
Vol: $287,442,291

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
89%
1585W / 187L events
Realized PnL
$2,045,560
Win Rate
89%
1585W / 187L
Profit Factor
5.46x
Avg Win
$1,579
Avg Loss
$-2,490

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $475,130 (0.232273666428854% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Biden finish his term?$201,470
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?$175,930
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?$97,730
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?$80,347
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?$66,072
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?$64,601
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$61,961
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting?$59,148
Will Biden resign before the election?$55,783
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?$54,640

Top Losers

Will Lamar Jackson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?$-47,477
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?$-30,241
Will Elon Musk give a speech at Bitcoin conference? $-27,869
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?$-24,953
Will Josh Shapiro be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?$-20,735
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on January 28?$-20,293
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting?$-20,050
Biden nominated before Democratic convention?$-13,546
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor$-10,512

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.256
Sortino
0.627
HHI
112
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.008
Kelly %
25.3%
Half-Kelly
12.7%
Top-1 market
3.4%
Top-5 markets
14.6%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
70.6
Very active
Markets / Day
1.6
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
16:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.2m
between trades
Avg Gap
12.8m
between trades
Night Trading
25%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
8.79
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
32 min
Avg Trades / Session
71.6

Bot Detection

#6
70
BOT (automated trading)HIGH probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 74s — normal for humanCV 8.79 — diverse sizes (human-like)25% night trades — never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clock71 trades/day — mass trading1.6 markets/day — normal86% maker — systematic market making

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 16:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
44.47
Heavy DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)9.1%
Mid (20-55c)2.3%
High (>55c)88.6%

Sessions

#12
7/7/2026, 11:46:01 PM520 trades$5,540,648143 min
4/29/2026, 9:40:50 PM4 trades$4,512,6525 min
3/25/2026, 2:31:31 AM44 trades$2,497,69423 min
5/9/2026, 5:51:15 PM21 trades$2,497,5005 min
4/24/2026, 10:45:40 AM9 trades$2,147,7947 min
6/17/2026, 9:43:16 PM32 trades$2,018,90110 min
6/21/2025, 6:02:28 PM128 trades$1,899,16353 min
6/10/2026, 4:56:03 AM11 trades$1,832,5231 min
1/1/2026, 6:39:23 PM50 trades$1,627,76842 min
7/29/2026, 3:41:51 PM98 trades$1,554,51043 min
3/12/2026, 2:47:37 PM104 trades$1,512,50468 min
12/5/2025, 5:16:43 PM35 trades$1,498,50014 min
1/27/2026, 4:24:47 PM37 trades$1,443,36136 min
3/11/2026, 6:08:15 PM34 trades$1,315,78525 min
4/9/2026, 6:50:37 AM37 trades$1,297,63418 min
1/20/2025, 12:41:01 PM102 trades$1,258,84148 min
6/17/2026, 7:42:11 AM23 trades$1,258,27417 min
3/25/2026, 7:37:43 AM28 trades$1,249,01217 min
3/4/2026, 6:35:11 PM41 trades$1,211,59624 min
4/10/2026, 11:23:59 AM82 trades$1,178,15852 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
2023-05-13 00:00:00
2024-11-05 12:00:00
2025-06-15 00:00:00
2025-10-17 00:00:00
2026-01-21 00:00:00
2026-05-14 16:00:00
2027-07-01 00:00:00

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
14% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 44.47/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L9.1 / M2.3 / H88.6