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@elon

#2,699,08415

0x0c23f7dba9dc50f8f59cac37c8e4835122a3088a

1479d· 148 markets · 143 tradesVol: $19,6042026-07-02T09:13
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

15
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 35%3/20
Profit Factor 0.89x1/15
HHI 36510/10
Profit Days 36%2/10
DD/Peak 140%0/10

Summary

The trader elon is a relatively low-ranked participant on Polymarket, positioned at #2,699,084 on the global PnL leaderboard. Over 1,041 days, elon has executed 143 trades across 123 markets, with a total volume of approximately $19,604. Despite this activity, the trader’s net PnL stands at -$344.59, reflecting a negative return. Elon’s Smart Score of 15/100 and a Sharpe Ratio of -0.03 indicate a beginner level of skill and a portfolio with poor risk-adjusted performance.

Elon prefers a diverse range of markets but has not engaged in weather markets, suggesting a focus elsewhere. The trader shows a low win rate of 32.8% and a modest profit factor of 1.07, which hints at a high-risk, low-reward trading style. With only 6% of positions sold and badges like “Lottery Player” and “Contrarian,” elon appears to take contrarian bets and hold positions long, possibly aiming for outsized gains. The equity trend is downward, and elon’s trading activity does not demonstrate consistent timing advantages.

Key strengths for elon include a willingness to trade across many markets and a contrarian approach that might pay off in rare scenarios. However, the persistent negative returns, low win rate, and declining equity value highlight significant risks. Elon’s beginner status and manual trading style may limit performance improvements without strategic adjustments. Overall, elon’s Polymarket record suggests a need for refinement in both market selection and risk management.

Badges

4
Lottery Player
34% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
54% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
6% sell
Win Streak
6 wins in a row

Categories

7
CRYPTO#168,767$22Vol: $9,279
🏛️ POLITICS#1,523,223$-158Vol: $2,873
SPORTS#230,821$17Vol: $2,405
🎭 CULTURE#759,337$-70Vol: $613
💻 TECH#224,019$-20Vol: $318
📢 MENTIONS#16,630$14Vol: $274
💰 FINANCE#399,775$-0Vol: $225

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-345
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$19,604
Total Redeem
$5,749
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
148
total markets
Trades
134B / 9S
Daily Volume
$6
Account Age
1479d
since Jun 20, 2022

Periods

#2
Today
$-0
Vol: $0
Week
$-0
Vol: $0
Month
$-0
Vol: $0
All Time
$-345
Vol: $19,604

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
38%
79W / 128L events
Realized PnL
$-344
Win Rate
33%
40W / 82L
Profit Factor
1.07x
Avg Win
$63
Avg Loss
$-29

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $1,170 (754.3% of PnL)

Top Winners

Bitcoin above $97,000 on January 10?$740
Will Spain win the 2024 Euros?$247
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?$183
Will Bitcoin hit $90k or $100k first?$163
Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election?$94
Will Germany Win?$86
$BTC dips below $60k before September?$85
Solana above $145 on October 11?$72
Bitcoin above $100,000 on December 13?$68
Will 'Barbie' gross 2x more than 'Oppenheimer' on opening weekend$66

Top Losers

Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?$-423
USD/TRY (Turkish Lira) above 21 on June 9?$-203
Will Biden pardon Jim Biden?$-200
Will Biden pardon Liz Cheney?$-200
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in December?$-127
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in December?$-117
Dogecoin above $0.31 on January 3?$-85
Will Chelsea beat Dortmund? (2/15/2023)$-80
Austria vs. Turkey - Who will advance?$-69
Will France win Group D?$-65

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.034
Sortino
-0.035
HHI
365
Diversified
EV per $1
$-344.620
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
8.8%
Top-5 markets
34.9%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
0.2
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.2
Active Hours
20/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
21:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.8m
between trades
Avg Gap
2.6h
between trades
Night Trading
10%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.88
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.3

Bot Detection

#6
15
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 106s — typical for humanSize CV 1.88 — diverse, typical for human10% at night — normal sleep pattern20/24 hours — extended daySession CV 0.49 — semi-mechanical

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 21:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.1
Single entry
<=1
111 entries
<=2
121 entries
<=5
122 entries
<=10
122 entries
<=20
122 entries
<=50
122 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)34.3%
Mid (20-55c)25.4%
High (>55c)40.3%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 68.9%

Other$111
Paris$44

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.1
Events covered
110

Single bracket

<=1
105 brackets
<=2
108 brackets
<=3
108 brackets
<=4
109 brackets
<=5
109 brackets
<=8
110 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
2/9/2023, 7:50:05 PM1 trades$100 min
2/13/2023, 2:17:16 AM1 trades$20 min
2/15/2023, 12:24:13 AM1 trades$800 min
2/27/2023, 1:03:57 AM1 trades$50 min
2/27/2023, 4:47:22 AM1 trades$260 min
4/10/2023, 10:03:59 PM1 trades$60 min
4/22/2023, 7:17:03 AM1 trades$10 min
5/12/2023, 9:07:17 PM1 trades$250 min
6/6/2023, 10:00:08 PM1 trades$2030 min
7/11/2023, 11:40:16 PM2 trades$204 min
7/13/2023, 8:08:16 PM1 trades$100 min
7/21/2023, 10:23:20 PM2 trades$493 min
7/25/2023, 8:46:55 PM1 trades$100 min
7/30/2023, 7:20:34 PM1 trades$10 min
8/2/2023, 8:57:17 PM1 trades$20 min
8/8/2023, 11:46:15 AM1 trades$10 min
8/8/2023, 11:53:18 PM1 trades$10 min
8/16/2023, 7:21:19 PM2 trades$20 min
8/24/2023, 10:32:42 PM1 trades$10 min
8/28/2023, 11:41:30 PM1 trades$260 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
08-31
12-02
05-09
12-31
10-11
02-09

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
6.3% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.1/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.1 br/event