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@empusa

#22,42855

0xd9703601452fc0350691afc070a1b5850643932a

112d· 145 markets · 1404 tradesVol: $107,5892026-07-22T00:05
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

55
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 30%0/20
Profit Factor 3.17x15/15
Sharpe 0.1994/15
Sortino 1.72410/10
EV $+2.18810/10
HHI 14565/10
Profit Days 35%1/10
DD/Peak 13%10/10

Summary

Empusa is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, ranked #22428 on the global PnL leaderboard. With 1,404 trades across 130 markets over 107 days, empusa has generated a net profit of $5,726.94 from a total trading volume of $107,589. The trader’s portfolio value stands at $45.13, and their Sharpe ratio is 0.20, indicating modest risk-adjusted returns. Empusa maintains an average Smart Score of 55 out of 100, suggesting consistent but not exceptional performance.

Empusa’s trading style focuses heavily on weather markets, comprising 92% of their activity, which aligns with their top badge as a Weather Pro. The trader exhibits a contrarian and dollar-cost averaging (DCA) approach, with a low sell percentage of 12%, indicating a preference for holding positions rather than frequent exits. Empusa’s win rate is high at 89.5%, and the profit factor is notably strong at 132.03, suggesting effective risk management. Their trading pattern appears steady with no prolonged drawdowns, and activity is likely human-driven given the low bot score.

The key strength for empusa lies in their specialization and high win rate, which contribute to an upward equity trend and consistent profitability. However, the low Sharpe ratio and relatively small portfolio value point to limited capital deployment or conservative position sizing. Additionally, the heavy concentration in weather markets could expose empusa to sector-specific risks. Overall, empusa’s disciplined contrarian strategy and focus on weather events make them a proficient but niche trader on Polymarket.

Badges

7
Profitable
PnL $+5,727
Lottery Player
86% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
95% entries <$0.50
DCA Master
avg 9.5 entries/market
Weather Pro
92% weather
Win Streak
24 wins in a row
Cool Head
DD 13%

Categories

1
🌤️ WEATHER#338$5,727Vol: $107,589

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$5,727
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$107,589
Total Redeem
$3,734
Portfolio
$45
Predictions
145
total markets
Trades
1241B / 163S
Daily Volume
$100
Account Age
112d
since Apr 8, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$464
Vol: $3,344
Week
$464
Vol: $3,344
Month
$937
Vol: $21,285
All Time
$5,727
Vol: $107,589

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
38%
26W / 43L events
Realized PnL
$8,299
Win Rate
89%
34W / 4L
Profit Factor
132.03x
Avg Win
$214
Avg Loss
$-14

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $4,273 (59.2% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will London have less than 5mm of precipitation in May?$3,347
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9?$469
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26?$458
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on July 7?$429
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12?$414
Will London have between 25-30mm of precipitation in May?$370
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25?$305
Will London have between 20-25mm of precipitation in May?$193
Will London have between 50-60mm of precipitation in April?$191
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 26?$136

Top Losers

Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 13?$-47
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on July 21?$-5
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 1?$-3
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18?$-0

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.199
Sortino
1.724
HHI
1456
Moderate
EV per $1
$2.188
Kelly %
89.4%
Half-Kelly
44.7%
Top-1 market
35.6%
Top-5 markets
57.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
13.6
Active
Markets / Day
1.3
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
7:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.4m
between trades
Avg Gap
45.2m
between trades
Night Trading
4%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
8.49
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.4

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 84s — typical for humanSize CV 8.49 — diverse, typical for human4% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.04 — human randomness14 trades/day — very active

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 7:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
9.5
Active DCA
<=1
22 entries
<=2
47 entries
<=5
70 entries
<=10
96 entries
<=20
115 entries
<=50
127 entries
>50
3 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)86.1%
Mid (20-55c)9.1%
High (>55c)4.8%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 70%

London$7,050
Paris$98
Amsterdam$70
New York City$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
2
Events covered
66

Moderate coverage

<=1
28 brackets
<=2
51 brackets
<=3
59 brackets
<=4
64 brackets
<=5
64 brackets
<=8
66 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
4/9/2026, 2:29:29 PM1 trades$90 min
4/9/2026, 2:56:43 PM3 trades$2000 min
4/15/2026, 6:29:38 PM1 trades$00 min
4/15/2026, 6:41:10 PM1 trades$00 min
4/15/2026, 7:09:44 PM3 trades$21 min
4/15/2026, 8:43:44 PM4 trades$00 min
4/19/2026, 8:18:46 PM2 trades$04 min
4/19/2026, 8:58:10 PM4 trades$40 min
4/19/2026, 9:07:42 PM2 trades$23 min
4/19/2026, 9:18:52 PM3 trades$30 min
4/19/2026, 9:24:24 PM2 trades$14 min
4/19/2026, 9:55:30 PM2 trades$50 min
4/19/2026, 10:17:52 PM3 trades$03 min
4/19/2026, 10:26:40 PM3 trades$05 min
4/19/2026, 11:01:24 PM4 trades$31 min
4/19/2026, 11:07:54 PM2 trades$100 min
4/19/2026, 11:32:32 PM1 trades$00 min
4/19/2026, 11:37:50 PM2 trades$00 min
4/19/2026, 11:47:06 PM2 trades$00 min
4/20/2026, 12:00:18 AM9 trades$64 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
04-15
05-07
05-24
06-11
06-23
07-02
07-17

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
WEATHER
91.5% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
11.6% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 9.5/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 2 br/event